Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp. has dropped its attempt to cherry-pick MGM Mirage's Bellagio and CityCenter properties after the corporation announced a new deal with Bahamas casino owner Sol Kerzner to build a multi-billion dollar casino complex on the Strip in Las Vegas.

Many thought that Kerkorian's intention was to nudge MGM Mirage (NYSE:MGM) onto the sale block, to see what his 56% of the remaining company assets might fetch in a buyout-friendly climate. The latest deal, with its implications for increased debt and holdings value, apparently caused him to rethink this move, at least for the moment.

MGM Mirage already has a huge footprint in Las Vegas, but remains very aggressive (i.e. carrying a considerable debt load) in pursuing further growth. Its new $725 million Detroit casino is scheduled to open late this year. The CityCenter complex in Las Vegas has tied up $7.4 billion and won't be ready until 2009, and MGM has put another $1 billion into a cooperative venture, MGM Grand Macau, opening later this year. It is also in talks about another huge development on the Cotai strip in Macau.

Those punters who jumped on the bandwagon at the initial announcement of Kerkorian's interest in Bellagio are jumping back off this morning. MGM Mirage stock was down more than 10% in early trading.

Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS), Wynn Resorts Ltd. (NASDAQ: WYNN), and MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) all have huge investments in the Las Vegas of the east, Macau. How large is illustrated by the drop in stock prices when, last Friday, a local China paper reported that Guangdong province was tightening travel restrictions to Macau. LVS finished down 1.56% and Wynn dropped 2.02%. MGM weathered the storm to finish even, possibly buoyed by Kirk Kerkorian's offer last week to buy two prime (non-Macau) properties.

Because the Macau region now surpasses Las Vegas in gambling revenue, punters have taken a distinctly bullish view of development, ignoring the Chinese government's capricious attitude about its people's freedom of movement.

I don't expect the Chinese government to strangle the growth of the Macau region, especially in the run-up to the 2008 Olympics. However, I think that we'll see more occasional setbacks in the stock of these companies, whenever something like this happens to remind investors of the greater risk they assume by piling their chips on red to win.

At one time Chinese billionaire Stanley Ho owned the casino business in Macau. But after the Chinese government extended licenses to outside operators such as Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS) and MGM Mirage (NYSE:MGM), Ho's Sociedad de Jogod de Macau (SJM) casinos have dropped to 63% of the market, much of the loss in the high-roller segment. JPMorgan forecasts SJM's share will drop to about 25% within three years. Although SJM owns 17 casinos in Macau, many are aged, run down, and away from the center of development for the coming mega-casinos on the Cotai Strip.

Now Ho has struck back with his biggest, most opulent casino, the almost $400 million Grand Lisboa Hotel. The ostentatious design, even by casino standards, was inspired by the Faberge egg and built in the form of a golden lotus flower topped with long, frond-like plumes.

The magnitude of the project, while huge in comparison with Ho's earlier casinos, pales in the light of the Galaxy Entertainment's planned Coati Mega Resort, Melco PBL's Crown Macau, the Sands' Macau Venetian Casino Resort and whatever the Virgin Group decides to do with the 20 hectares acres they have purchased.

2006's lush returns only hastened development projects in Macau, but with all the huge investments underway, one has to wonder if the customer base will expand quickly enough to pay off. While new investors offer the glitzy, modern facilities, Ho's fortunes are tied to aged properties. Will the Grand Lisboa be enough to keep him in the game?

A Gordian knot of interests tie together the gaming markets of Las Vegas, Macau and future sites for development. A couple of these strands threaten MGM Mirage (NYSE:MGM)'s expansion plans.

One end of the knot is in Macau. Billionaire Stanley Ho was in on the ground floor of development there, at one time owning more than three-fourths of all the casinos. His share has dropped substantially with the influx of new developers, including the Las Vegas Sands (NYSE:LVS) and Wynn Resorts, Ltd (NASDAQ:WYNN).

Now his son Lawrence Ho is partnering with Australian James Packer to build a new casino, the Crown Macau, scheduled to open this year, as well as another $2 billion complex, the City of Dreams, opening in 2008. Packer, a friend of Steve Wynn of Wynn Resorts, is rumored to be also interested in buying into the Las Vegas market.

At the same time, Lawrence's sister Pansy Ho has partnered with MGM Mirage of Las Vegas to build the new $1 billion MGM Mirage Macau, also opening this year.

How does this add up to trouble for American firms? Under Stanley Ho's leadership, the Ho family was long suspected of having ties to organized crime. This suspicion has caused the children and their partners a great deal of difficulty in gaining permission for developments in other parts of Southeast Asia.