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Would suspending mark-to-market rule solve the financial crisis?

Newt Gingrich has gone on the record with a solution to the crisis that is the best I have seen so far. Rather than pass a $700 billion bailout, suspend the accounting rules that are causing the liquidity crisis to begin with.

In the past few years, accounting rules changed and these changes are in part causing the current crisis. Specifically, the problem is mark-to-market accounting where all assets are required to be valued at current market prices. If the market is temporarily depressed, it can cause an artificial crisis.

Let me give a silly but simple illustration. If you have 20 one dollar bills in your wallet, we would all agree you have a net worth of $20. Thirsty Bob also has one dollar bill in his wallet and walks into the break room and wants to buy a Coke. Soda in the machine costs 50 cents, but it only takes quarters. Thirsty Bob asks if anyone has change and they all say no. Sam says he has only two quarters and will trade Thirsty Bob -- who is really thirsty -- two quarters for a dollar. Thirsty Bob quickly agrees to take Sam up one his offer in order to get the Coke now. Bob knows that two quarters for a dollar is a bad deal, but he is takes the deal anyway.

Continue reading Would suspending mark-to-market rule solve the financial crisis?

Three reasons why you shouldn't panic and sell your stocks

The government bailout that was supposed to save the financial sector from certain doom failed to pass vote on Congress. Does that mean we now face certain doom? I think not.

I don't want to sound Pollyanna-ish and I don't really have a crystal ball (as my headline promises), but here are some reasons why investors should not panic and sell their stocks now:

First, as frightening as the market looks -- the Dow fell 778 points for its worst one-day drop ever -- there is going to be a rebound. If you sell at the bottom, you will miss out on an eventual recovery. If you really want to get out, wait for a bounce and then sell some of your stock holdings. Don't sell into a freefall. Think about it: the S&P fell an astounding 8.79% on Monday -- the worst percentage drop in more than 60 years, except for 1987's Black Monday crash. The Nasdaq fell 9.14%. Given the devastation, I think a bounce could come as soon as Tuesday since there will no doubt be some news that has to be better than Monday's.

Incidentally, this "don't sell in a panic" advice is the same you'll get from any financial advisor worth his or her salt. If you're invested in the market for the long term, you should ride out such waves and -- if you're really brave -- even use episodes of panic selling to buy more stocks.

Continue reading Three reasons why you shouldn't panic and sell your stocks

How to predict the next meltdown

From my experience in the banking industry in the 1980s and 1990s, I've noticed that one of the best predictors of a collapse in a particular asset class – such as commercial real estate or oil and gas exploration -- is the rapid rise in lending against that class.

During the 1980s, I consulted to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's (FDIC) Liquidation Division. This division takes over banks that fail and sells their assets in an effort to raise the cash needed to pay the bank's depositors.

In 1982, when I consulted to the Liquidation Division, it was experiencing a rise in bank failures as a result of too much lending to commercial real estate and oil and gas explorers in states such as Texas and Oklahoma. Rising prices attracted new entrants and banks were more than happy to lend money to them. When prices fell, due to excess supply fueled by the loans, the new entrants went out of business. And the banks could not get their money back so they failed.

Continue reading How to predict the next meltdown

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+30.6910,464.40
NASDAQ+6.872,176.05
S&P 500+4.981,110.63

Last updated: November 25, 2009: 06:37 PM

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