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Three market predictions for the second half of '08

With the 4th of July approaching, it's always a good time to get a bit of perspective and take a look at what may happen in the second half of the year. As with predictions they generally tend to never come true, but here are 3 market predictions for the 2nd half of the year.

1- Crude oil will trade down under $100/barrel. As global growth continues to slow, especially in overheated emerging markets, some of the the speculative froth will leave the market and the price will start heading down to a point more in line with fundamentals.

2- The US Dollar will rally against the Euro, and reach a level of 1.42 by the end of December, down from the 1.58 current levels. With European growth expected to potentially contract by more than 1% in the coming quarters, and the US staying out of recession, the market will re-focus on growth differentials in the for-ex markets, providing some much needed strength for the greenback.

Continue reading Three market predictions for the second half of '08

Google's earnings will spark a strong rally

With the stock market slowly moving off of lows set early last week, look for Google's (NASDAQ: GOOG) earnings to be just what the doctor ordered to rocket the market forward. As Brian White posted, "Google's shares have been shaken from a high of over $700 this past Christmas to under $543 today, as the company has joined in with the overall market teeter-totter amid continued housing worries and recession talk and FUD that spreads like wildfire every week."

I think that the company will report blow out numbers, as it has done in the past. The catch this time is that the market hasn't set Google up for a fall. I don't believe expectations are all that high due to the market rout. If Google surprises to the upside, this will be what the bulls among us have been waiting for, and I would expect a nice 7-10% market move to the upside in the next two to three weeks.

A strong Google report would help justify what I have been saying that technology will be leading the market higher. Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) had a great report last week, let's hope Google has a similar report tonight.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's has no positions in any stock mentioned as of 1/31/08.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-154.4810,309.92
NASDAQ-37.612,138.44
S&P 500-19.141,091.49

Last updated: November 28, 2009: 06:22 AM

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