We all expected Disney's (NYSE: DIS) High School Musical 3: Senior Year to be the number-one picture at domestic theaters over the weekend, but I have to admit, I thought it might do a little better than the $42 million it's grossed so far (according to estimates at Boxofficemojo). That's still a very decent figure for a movie that began its life on the small screen. And one has to wonder if Disney now believes that a fourth Musical movie might actually be ready to compete in the summer box-office season. If the budget were low enough to justify the risk, I might be for it.

We also had a good idea of what would come in second. Lions Gate Entertainment's (NYSE: LGF) Halloween tradition, a Saw sequel, took up that respectable position. Saw V grossed approximately $30 million. Lions Gate was quick to issue a press release over the weekend pointing out the film's success as well as the financial impact of the Saw franchise as a whole. The numbers are compelling (worldwide theatrical and home-video revenues of the entire series have passed $1 billion) for the low-budget properties.

But, as I noted in an earlier post, the opening-weekend grosses for the Saw flicks have plateaued. Even though we are told by Lions Gate that the Saw franchise has taken in over $1 billion in revenues, exactly what is the profit margin on those revenues? And what is the assumed growth rate of the franchise over time versus the assumed growth rate of the budgets/marketing expenditures? If you look at the following chart, you'll note that cumulative domestic grosses for Saw II through Saw IV have been in decline. Total worldwide grosses for Saw IV declined compared to Saw III.

I thought Oliver Stone's cinematic treatment of George W. Bush, simply titled W., was going to be the number-one film over the weekend at domestic theaters. According to Boxofficemojo, it wasn't. The movie, distributed by Lions Gate Entertainment (NYSE: LGF), came in fourth place with an estimated $10.5 million take. Truth be told, I forgot that Mark Wahlberg's Max Payne came out this weekend as well. I guess that would give Stone some tough competition, to be sure. That project, which came to the market courtesy of News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), took the top spot with $18 million. Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Beverly Hills Chihuahua and News Corp.'s The Secret Life of Bees came in second and third, respectively. Actually, those two films, plus W., had close box-office estimates at the time of this writing, so it is conceivable the ranking order could change slightly depending on what final stats reveal.

Even though Stone didn't succeed this weekend in terms of the multiplex rankings, shareholders of Lions Gate can appreciate one internal metric related to this box-office story. W.'s per-theater average in terms of dollars was similar to Max Payne's. The former's average was calculated to be roughly $5,200 per theater, while the latter's was about $5,330 per location (again, this is as of the estimates available to me at the time of this writing). Also, W.'s average beat Chihuahua's. So, you have to wonder what the rankings would have been like had the movie opened in more theaters. Coming in fifth place, by the way, is Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Eagle Eye. That's grossed a decent $80 million so far. I don't think it will hit $100 million, but it should get close.

I'll tell you, Lions Gate's stock is pretty cheap. Have you been following the price action? It's been volatile, as you obviously would have guessed, and it closed at $6.95 per share on Friday, having risen 7% during that session, perhaps in anticipation of the W. opening. I've been keeping my eye on the stock and have said in the past that it's an interesting trading idea below $9 per share. Obviously, that thesis has changed since current market sentiment seems to be as rational as the mind of The Joker, but if Lions Gate breaks its 52-week low of $5.59, then I'll definitely have to strongly consider it ahead of Saw V, which is set to open next weekend. Of course, I'll be very, very careful about pulling the trigger, and will consider many things before buying. Like the strong possibility that sentiment will drop even further and take Lions Gate down to low single-digit levels. Don't think it can't happen. That would be even scarier than surviving a jigsaw trap (well, not really, but you know what I mean).

Disclosure: I own Disney; positions can change at any time.