McCain posts
FeedPosted Dec 9th 2008 2:40PM by Michael Rainey (RSS feed)
Filed under: Consumer experience, Presidential elections, Headline news
This post is part of AOL Money & Finance's Best & Worst in Money 2008 feature.
The great media circus that so richly illuminates American life is constantly producing new stars to dazzle us, and this year has been no exception. In addition to the usual offerings from television (Tina Fey), sports (Michael Phelps) and books and film (Stephanie Meyer), 2008 saw new stars emerge from the presidential election (Sarah Palin) and the spectacular and ongoing financial crisis (Neel Kashkari). Of course no one knows what 2009 will bring, but we can be sure of one thing: that each of these new stars will likely try to cash in on their new-found celebrity in the new year.
Tina Fey has been fairly well known for several years, first as the head writer and Weekend Update host on Saturday Night Live, then as the creator and star of the critically acclaimed show 30 Rock. However, she ascended to a higher level of celebrity with her dead-on impersonation of Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin. (It's so good that if you search for the phrase "dead-on impersonation" on both AOL and Google, the first results that come up are clips of Fey doing her Palin shtick.) There was a lot of debate about whether Fey hurt or helped Palin, but it's pretty clear that all of the attention helped Fey enormously, making her one of the most famous female comedians in the U.S. Look for more TV and film deals for her in 2009.
Continue reading Best & Worst in Money 2008: Broke out in 2008 and will cash in the most
Posted Dec 6th 2008 2:40PM by Peter Cohan (RSS feed)
Filed under: Marketing and advertising, Scandals, Entrepreneurs, Presidential elections
This post is part of AOL Money & Finance's Best & Worst in Money 2008 feature.
I am not familiar with Vince Offer so this is not a fair ranking; however, based on who got the biggest 15 minutes of fame and is most likely to fade from memory the most permanently, here's my ranking of the most notable 15 minutes of fame:
- "Joe the Plumber" (Sam Wurzelbach) -- a "representative of the middle class" frequently referenced by Senator McCain late in the 2008 presidential campaign
- the Reverend Jeremiah Wright -- excerpts of this former pastor's sermons received intense media scrutiny during the presidential campaign
- Vince Offer -- ShamWow pitchman who has been compared to renowned pitchmen Billy Mays and Ron Popeil
- Ashley Alexandra Dupre -- the high-priced call girl at the center of the Eliot Spitzer prostitution scandal
- Katy Perry -- the singer-songwriter whose "I Kissed a Girl" became a controversial worldwide hit
I think Ashley and Katy are not going to fade from memory because they'll still be around. Ashley will probably come out with a book and try to sell her music, and Katy has other popular songs -- like "Hot 'N Cold" -- that will keep her on the radio. Joe the Plumber will be history and so will Reverend Wright -- both share a distinction of being props in the failed Republican effort to demonize Barack Obama this year.
Do you agree?
Share the reasons for your pick in the comments, or let us know about any contenders we overlooked. Also be sure to see the rest of the Best & Worst in Money 2008.
Posted Nov 9th 2008 8:16AM by Peter Cohan (RSS feed)
Filed under: Major movement, Private equity, DJIA, Financial Crisis
The Dow lost 385 points this week with a 315 point election day rally on Tuesday, two consecutive days which totaled 929 points down, and a Friday rally of 248 points. Did the market rise on hopes of a McCain upset only to fall due to disappointment that Obama won? Did the market rally Friday because the 6.5% unemployment rate was not as bad as expected? It could be, but I doubt it.
More likely, the markets are moving because of the trading behavior of endowments, pension funds, and hedge funds. They make decisions for very different reasons. But some reporting on daily market movements looks like a joke -- nobody knows why the market goes up or down, but commenters use price movements as a daily barometer of the national mood. So how do endowments, pension funds, and hedge funds move the markets? Here's how:
- Endowments. Big university endowments, such as Harvard's, are desperately trying to unload billions of dollars worth of illiquid interests in venture capital and private equity firms. Harvard is reportedly trying to dump $1.5 billion worth of such interests into a market where there is likely to be very little interest. Not only that, these private equity firms are demanding that endowments fork over the money they committed to them so they can make new investments. And with the S&P 500 down 36.6% so far this year, many endowments are selling anything liquid to meet these commitments and to pay shorter-term obligations -- such as paying professors and keeping the lights on.
Continue reading Why did the Dow fall 385 points this week?
Posted Nov 4th 2008 1:12PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Indices, Technical Analysis, DJIA

The market, which to say the least has not been kind to 401Ks lately, rallied during Tuesday's morning session, with
the Dow up 270 points to 9,591 at mid-day.
What's driving it? Is this an Obama rally or a relief rally?
Economist Peter Dawson, who took his daughter Laurie to the voting booth Tuesday morning for "a cool, local civic lesson," tends to side with the latter.
"Given the economic, fiscal and, let's face it, financial system challenges facing the nation, and the intensity of the presidential campaign, my sense is that the market and nation are probably just happy the campaign season is over," Dawson said. "The market knows that one way or another, we will have a new chief executive in place, which means decisions will be made to tackle those problems and the market may be getting out in front of that."
Economist Richard Felson agreed with Dawson but argued that the expected performance of U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois may also be playing a role.
Continue reading Is this an Obama rally or a relief rally?
Posted Nov 3rd 2008 2:46PM by Peter Cohan (RSS feed)
Filed under: Boeing Co (BA), Politics, Presidential elections
One of the little-noticed political endorsements from last week was that of former Ronald Reagan chief of staff, Kenneth Duberstein, who broke with his party to endorse Barack Obama. Why did he do this? The far more influential, Colin Powell, helped break the ice for Duberstein. And Duberstein was clearly not thrilled with the pick of the delightfully chipper, Sarah Palin, as VP, telling MSNBC, "Even at McDonalds (NYSE: MCD), you're interviewed three times before you're given a job."
But it could be that Duberstein had a much more practical business reason for endorsing Obama -- a $35 billion contract for Boeing Inc. (NYSE: BA) of which he is a director. And Boeing stands to lose that contract if McCain is elected. How so? John McCain's national finance committee chair, Tom Loeffler, is a lobbyist for a French company that is competing with Boeing for the contract to build airborne refueling tankers for the Air Force. McCain's campaign received $14,000 in contributions from workers at EADS, the parent of France's Airbus, which is competing against Boeing in a joint bid with Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) for the contract.
My sources suggested that McCain was behind the process irregularities that caused the General Accounting Office (GAO) to recommend that the bidding process be canceled and the contract rebid back in June. And there's little doubt that if McCain wins tomorrow's election, he is in the tanker tank for Airbus and it will cost Boeing the contract. So could Duberstein believe that Obama is a better candidate for the country? Absolutely. And would an Obama victory be better for Boeing than for France's Airbus? Sure.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. Portfolio will publish his book about Boeing, You Can't Order Change: Lessons from Jim McNerney's Turnaround at Boeing, in December 2008. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.
Posted Nov 3rd 2008 11:01AM by Peter Cohan (RSS feed)
Filed under: General Motors (GM)
Will our 43rd president help the auto industry fend off the threat of bankruptcy? No. Over the weekend, General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) and Chrysler owner, Cerberus Capital, tried to get $10 billion of the $810 billion bank bailout bill to help finance their merger. Yesterday, Bush turned down the request. While Barack Obama supports help for the auto industry, John McCain does not. And since no reason was given for the turn down, we are free to draw our own conclusions for Bush's decision.
I think the case for not bailing out the auto industry has been severely weakened by the decision to bail out Wall Street. After all, if it's OK to give our money to the executives of big banks that got us into the financial crisis so they can pay themselves multi-million bonuses, there is no meaningful reason why everyone should not get a bailout.
I think that GM and Chrysler got themselves into their current mess by continuing to push gas guzzling, but highly profitable, minivans and SUVs rather than investing the profits in fuel efficient vehicles. And the industry has already gotten approval for $25 billion in loans to pay for fuel efficient vehicles that it should have built with profits earned during the boom years.
Continue reading Bush to GM: Drop dead
Posted Nov 1st 2008 12:40PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Politics, Presidential elections
Most major polls have U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, leading U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, in the contest for U.S. president. And, if the election were held today, instead of on Tuesday, November 4, Election Day, Obama would register a decisive victory in the all-important electoral college, as well as in the popular vote.
As of late Friday, NPR.org's survey of polls had the electoral vote at Obama, 291, McCain 163. Four battleground states are still in play: Ohio, where Obama lead by 5%; Florida, Obama by 3.5%; Indiana, McCain by 1.7%; and Missouri, McCain by about 0.5%. Concerning the national vote, on Friday, Gallup.com's daily tracking poll had Obama leading McCain, 52% to 41%.
Still, as most political aides will tell you, "the only poll that really counts is the one on Election Day, Tuesday, November 4." In other words, polls can err; that's why they have a margin of error, typically +/- 2%.
Polls only recently have become more accurate. Some notable poll mistakes include the 1980 U.S. presidential election, when some polls had incumbent President Jimmy Carter, a Democrat slightly ahead of the challenger, then Gov. Ronald Reagan, a Republican. Reagan, of course won the 1980 election in a landslide.
Pres. Truman had the last laugh on pollers
But the biggest polling error in a presidential election has to be the 1948 election between President Harry S. Truman, a Democrat, and challenger Gov. Thomas E. Dewey, a Republican.
The polls predicted that Dewey would win by a large margin. They were wrong: Truman won a decisive victory, 303-189, in the electoral college.
Continue reading The only poll that really counts is the one on Election Day, Tuesday, November 4
Posted Oct 31st 2008 12:30PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: International markets, Other issues, Politics, Presidential elections

What's the post-2008 U.S. Presidential Election dollar outlook and the dollar strategy?
Well, more than likely, the
dollar's fate will be largely determined by macroeconomic factors, as well as by fiscal and monetary policy, along with the overall risk appetite/risk aversion climate that hinges on the status of the global financial crisis.
As any economist or currency trader will tell you, that's a full plate of variables, which only underscores the complexity (and difficulty) in determining the direction of currencies.
Nov. 4 election will help determine dollar's fateStill, fiscal policy plays an important role, and with the aforementioned in mind, look for the following dollar pattern depending on the
Tuesday, November 4 Election Day outcome: If
U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, wins, the dollar is likely to strengthen, long-term. If
U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, wins, the dollar is likely to weaken, long-term.
Currency Trader Eric Simpkins outlined the Obama scenario. Although U.S. budget deficits will initially be high as an Obama presidency begins, an Obama win implies a Democratic Party majority in the U.S. Congress, which will make it easier for Obama to raise taxes on upper income groups, basically those Americans earning more than $250,000 per year.
"Obama's tax increase will cut the U.S. budget deficit and get the revenue and spending lines heading in the right direction, together, which will cause the dollar to rise," Simpkins said. "The U.S. recession will mitigate this somewhat, but that economic negative will be offset by the fact that Europe and other regions will be in recession, too, and will likely recover later, putting pressure on those currencies."
Continue reading Currency traders: Obama wins, buy the dollar; McCain wins, short the dollar
Posted Oct 28th 2008 12:32PM by Peter Cohan (RSS feed)
Filed under: Consumer experience, Housing, Recession, Financial Crisis
Are you better off than you were a year ago? Probably not. Since then, global markets have lost roughly half, or $30 trillion worth of their value. House prices fell 16.6% between August 2007 and August 2008 and 3.4 million people are expected to have foreclosed on their houses by the end of 2009. So you can't retire as soon as you thought and if you still own it, you can't borrow money against your house.
Looking ahead to the holiday season and witnessing thousands of people losing their jobs could put you in a bad mood. After all, median income is down since 2000 while it still costs much more to fill your gas tank than it did back then -- not to mention pay for health care. So it should come as no surprise to learn that consumer confidence is lower than it has been in the last 41 years.
But consumers are not smart. As John McCain advisor, Phil Gramm has said, Americans are whiners. And McCain himself has made it clear that the economic fundamentals are strong. After all, McCain (or more likely his wife) owns seven houses and thirteen cars. So the point is that his economic fundamentals are strong. And that's all that really matters.
As for American workers, let them eat cake.
Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.
Posted Oct 23rd 2008 2:27PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: Rants and raves, Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD), Politics, Headline news, Comic Relief

The clock is ticking and the pollsters are bouncing around faster than ever with varying results. My latest wager was not on a stock, but a box of 24 doughnuts with a friend who thinks McCain will win the election.
Given the post-Palin slide of the McCain campaign we have been hearing about for the past six weeks, I thought this was a sure thing. Then we learn --
not so fast folks! -- things can change.
Presidential Race Tightens, AP Poll Says Wow, I'll say, they can change. Is this a case of
"better the devil we know than the angel we don't"? Although many voters have a throw the bums out mentality, putting Republicans out of favor for the moment, in times of crises perhaps people are rethinking whether they would not prefer the familiar to the enchanting.
This seems to be the election of the enchanted so far. Barack Obama and John McCain were underdogs at the beginning of the presidential primaries but have withstood their critics harshest blows and came out on top.
Continue reading My latest big bet: Doughnuts on Obama
Posted Oct 23rd 2008 1:57PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Politics, Presidential elections
Stock, oil and related futures provide valuable clues for investors/readers concerning where these market / commodities are headed.
With the above as background, Intrade.com's futures for the 2008 U.S. presidential election currently predict a decisive victory for
U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, over
U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona.
InTrade's Realtime Electoral Vote Predictor is projecting an electoral college vote total of: Obama 364, McCain, 174. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
Futures for Obama win are highFutures on an Obama win are at 86.4. The 86.4 level means that the market predicts there is an 86.4% chance of this event happening. All Intrade markets trade between 0 and 100.
Futures on a McCain win are at 14.4, signaling that the market believes there's a 14.4% of McCain winning the election.
Continue reading InTrade's electoral college vote predictor sees: Obama, 364, McCain, 174
Posted Oct 22nd 2008 4:48PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Politics, Presidential elections
Have you decided who to vote for in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election?
If you're like most Americans, you have. By this date, two weeks or so before the election, at least 90% and in some elections 95% of you know who you're going to vote for, political science research tells us.
Historically, at this stage of the campaign, the only people who have not determined which candidate they'll vote for are those adults who tend to not vote regularly: they'll often even pass up voting in a presidential election.
2008 campaign: most negative ever?One benefit, if you've decided who to vote for
U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, or
U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, is that you don't have to watch any more campaign coverage or campaign ads (if you can avoid them).
True, it must seem like this presidential campaign has been the most negative ever, but if the truth be told, it's no more negative than the one in
2004, or in
1960, and certainly not more negative than the one in
1928. In
1928, the insults and smear tactics used against Democratic Party nominee
N.Y. Governor Al Smith, would set the standard for gross and outrageous campaign tactics.
Continue reading Are you ready for the last two weeks of presidential campaign pain?
Posted Oct 15th 2008 3:00PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Politics, Presidential elections, Recession, Financial Crisis

With unemployment rising and the signs of slowdown all around, is a second tax rebate or second stimulus check from Congress up ahead?
The U.S. economy continues to slow. More than 800,000 jobs have been lost since the slowdown began about a year ago, and many economists say the lay-offs are likely to continue or even increase.
Meanwhile, the world's major industrialized nations are striving
to stabilize the global financial system and end a credit crunch that could further damage economies around the world.
Well, the answer to the question about a second stimulus check may very well rest on the answer to this one: Who are you voting for on
Election Day, November 4?Key factor: 2008 ElectionCongressional Democrats, led by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-California, have vowed to push for a second stimulus package totaling up to $150 billion to help jump-start the anemic U.S. economy,
The San Francisco Chronicle reports.
Continue reading Is a second stimulus check up ahead?
Posted Oct 12th 2008 4:00PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters, Presidential elections, Stocks to Buy
This post is part of a series in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked financial experts to name their top stock pick if McCain or if Obama wins the election.
"A McCain victory would allow for a first year expensing of new equipment and technology; as such, we would recommend Molex (NASDAQ: MOLX), which is positioned in the technology value chain," says Thomas Vass in The Technology Stock Advisor.
"To provide an immediate boost to capital expenditures and reward investments in cutting edge technologies, John McCain would allow companies to expense the costs of new equipment or technology in the first year.
"High technology value chains -- such as computer and electronic equipment and information services -- are likely to benefit by this economic policy.
"Molex has an international value chain that will benefit greatly from the new policy because its customers will be able to buy technology goods at a much lower cost as a result of the new accelerated tax write-off.
"MOLX meets the Technology Stock Advisor screening criteria and has been in the TSA active portfolio since July of 2006. Standard & Poor's gives MOLX a B rating for quality. Our buy price target is $26. The target sell price is $40."
Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.
Posted Oct 12th 2008 11:40AM by Bruce Watson (RSS feed)
Filed under: Politics, Recession, Financial Crisis
Over the past few years, the line between news and spin has grown thinner and thinner, to the point that it is no longer visible, even with the most advanced scientific instruments. In fact, according to most physicists, the line can only be detected by the infinitesimal gravitational pull that it seems to exert on surrounding particles, like faith in democracy, trust in authority figures, governmental accountability, and the inexplicable popularity of Perez Hilton. As a consequence, real-life causes and effects, decisionmakers and victims pale beside the far flashier waves that rustle through the covers of magazines and the ranks of the punditry. In the end, the past few presidents have demonstrated that truth is less important than "truthiness" and events are less important than titles.
In this spirit, the time has come to put a name on the economy's current crisis. As some talking heads have already noted, the Bush administration made a major mistake by allowing the term "bailout" to define the government's response to the economic meltdown. John McCain proposed the term "rescue," which sounds far more noble, while Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson suggested calling it the "Troubled Asset Relief Program," presumably hoping that a really boring title would make taxpayers forget about the issue. Using the same logic, petty thieves are now lobbying to have the term "pickpocketing" replaced with the monicker "involuntary, extralegal, above-market thigh massage."
Continue reading 'Crash-and-burn economy?' 'Bailout beer bust?' What should we call America's economic disaster?
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