Humana (NYSE: HUM - option chain) stock is declining today after the company said preliminary 2010 Medicare Advantage payment rates could cause reduced profits in 2010. These comments from HUM are dragging down the entire group, including industry stalwart UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH), which is off by upwards of 15%. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on HUM.

This morning, HUM opened at $36.70. So far today the stock has hit a low of $30.57 and a high of $36.86. As of 11:55, HUM is trading at $31.41, down $9.13 (-22.5%). Prior to today, the chart for HUM looked bullish, while S&P gives HUM a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.

Wellpoint (NYSE: WLP - option chain) stock is dropping today after the company announced it will suspend marketing of its Medicare plans for seniors while it corrects a number of compliance problems. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on WLP.

This morning, WLP opened at $37.40. So far today the stock has hit a low of $36.77 and a high of $39.45. As of 12:25, WLP is trading at $38.74, down $2.22 (-5.4%). The chart for WLP looks neutral and S&P gives WLP a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a March bear-call credit spread above the $50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverages nice returns.

For this particular trade, we will make a 6.4% return in two months as long as WLP is below $50 at March expiration. Wellpoint would have to rise by more than 28% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

WLP hasn't been above $50 since September and shown resistance around $45 recently.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in WLP.

In this series, we take a look at the 25 stocks on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) that have turned in the worst performance during the past decade -- what went wrong, and what happens next.

Former hippies might notice that the ticker symbol for Tenet Healthcare Corporation (NYSE: THC) is also the acronym for the active compound in marijuana, but this apparent inattention to detail is likely the least of the company's concerns. When Tenet was formed in 1995, it was born out of a merger between American Medical International and scandal-plagued National Medical Enterprises. Executives at the newly reborn healthcare services company hoped that its new name would help erase any unpleasant investor associations with its previous incarnation.

What went wrong? At number 19 on our list of SPX losers, THC shed 73% of its value during the 10-year period ending June 30, 2008. Prior to a stomach-churning sell-off in the fall of 2002, the shares were entrenched in a near-vertical uptrend that peaked at $52.50. It seems that a seedy healthcare services company by any other name ...

October 2002 marked the stock's peak, as well as the beginning of its steep descent. First, the company reported fiscal first-quarter earnings that surpassed analysts' estimates by 2 cents per share. A few weeks later, Tenet was named co-defendant in a lawsuit filed by the widow of a man who'd accepted an artificial heart, which she alleged "stripped him of his human dignity." This relatively minor suit, worth just $100,000, wouldn't break THC -- but it nonetheless heralded the beginning of the end. Toward the end of the month, the shares tumbled sharply after an analyst downgraded Tenet and warned that it was too dependent on Medicare reimbursements from the government.

Baby Boomers, in some cases already facing the 'double demands' of caring for kids and aging parents, have another economic concern, at least for the next phase of the housing cycle: substantially lower household net worth, as a result of declining home prices, so says a Washington-based think tank.

The Center for Economic and Policy Research says the median households head by those ages 45-54 in 2009 will have about 25% less wealth than the similar demographic in 2004. In dollars, household wealth will decline to $113,268 from $150,113.

Further, the above assume March 2008's housing prices hold for 2009: if they don't and prices fall another 10%, household net worth declines by about 35%; 20%, by about 45%, the CEPR said.

Economist Peter Dawson, who is not affiliated with the CEPR or the study, told BloggingStocks part of the problem was "unreasonable expectations regarding home appreciation rates, the belief that 10-15% real estate gains would continue for decades. It got too many adults out of the traditional saving and investing mode and into thinking their home would serve as a major return on investment." Most homes do appreciate, and they can help build wealth, Dawson said, but homeowners must think in terms of a 6-9% average, annual appreciation rate, "which is a more-realistic return for residential dwellings."

UnitedHealth (NYSE: UNH) shares are in the red today even though a bill that would have reduced Medicare reimbursements to health insurers was defeated in the House of Representatives yesterday. However, shares of UNH are declining this morning with other insurers on news that Congress will likely pass a different bill with slightly smaller cuts next week. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on UNH.

After hitting a one-year high of $59.46 in December, the stock hit a one-year low of $31.49 in May. This morning, UNH opened at $30.30. So far today the stock has hit a low of $30.00 and a high of $30.88. As of 1:25, UNH is trading at $30.70, down 31 cents(-1.0%). The chart for UNH looks neutral and improving, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 Stars (out of 5) Hold rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a September .bear-call credit spread above the $35 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 9.9% return in three months as long as UNH is below $35 at September expiration. UNH would have to rise by more than 14% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here

UNH hasn't been above 35 since May and has shown resistance around $34.50 recently.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in UNH.

With a sluggish economy, uncertain job growth, the most serious housing recession in more than 20 years, record oil and gasoline prices, ramping food costs, and a foreign policy landscape that's challenging (to say the least), decision makers in the United States, public and private, have more than enough to be concerned about, near-term, most analysts and citizens would agree.

Still, the above wasn't enough to prevent the annual "alarm sounding" about long-term concerns, such as Social Security and Medicare, the likes of which occurred again this week when the Social Security Trustees released their revised 2008 actuarial balance, which is a status report.

Moreover, while it's never prudent to ignore the tax and benefits implications of entitlement programs as large as Social Security and Medicare, it's important that investors and taxpayers also keep in mind one undeniable reality pertaining to statistical analysis of this sort. Namely, that we're dealing with longitudinal projections stretching out decades in which -- if any one of 20 variables (or more) change -- receipts and outlays would change substantially.

While it comes as no surprise, both Medicare and Social Security are financial disasters waiting to happen. In a report issued today by trustees of these two large government programs, while the dates of bankruptcy are unchanged, the date of the programs being cash flow negative have moved up to a date closer than was previously thought.

According to an AP report: " The first year that payments will exceed income for Social Security will occur in 2017, just nine years from now, reflecting growing demands from the retirement of 78 million baby boomers. Medicare is projected to pay out more than it receives in income starting this year.

"The financial difficulties facing Social Security and Medicare pose enormous challenges," the trustees said in their report. "The sooner these challenges are addressed, the more varied and less disruptive their solutions can be."

American President George Bush announced his new budget spending plan today, and the package came out to a total of $3.1 trillion.

Today's federal budget proposal marks the first time in America's history that a budget plan has been in excess of $3 trillion. Bush claims that his budget is "good" and "solid" and that the passing of this budget will help keep the troubled American economy growing.

All in all, this budget looks to lift government spending by 6% during the fiscal year 2009, and it will probably come to no one's surprise that defense gets a nice little boost from today's budget. Bush is looking to allocate 8.2% of his spending on security, and the budget is looking to stake a $70 billion "placeholder" for war costs during 2009. The Pentagon should be pleased with its figures, as Bush is looking to allocate $515.4 billion its way... the highest allocation since WWII (and represents a 7.5% jump).

A recent ruling handed down by the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission has given employers discretion in using Medicare eligibility as a factor when calculating health care benefits for retired employees, as reported by Marketplace. The AARP had raised a stink about the issue claiming that having employers shift health care costs to Medicare when applicable amounted to age discrimination. My question is, if the level of care and benefits remains the same, who really cares from what direction the bills are paid? If employers carry the burden then we all see it in our bottom line. If the government pays for it, then we all see it in our tax load. The end effect to us as a society is basically the same.

This decision reaffirms in part exactly what Medicare was intended to do. The system has two major intents. First and foremost, Medicare is meant to fill the gap in cases where health care coverage is lacking. Secondly, Medicare is intended to help free the business world from the administration of benefits for people who no longer participate as an active part of their work force.

If the level of actual benefits is in no way reduced and the process of accessing those benefits is in no way hampered, then there's no room to gripe about employers shifting the burden. In fact, this kind of move is exactly what American business needs right now. However, if this decision in any way dilutes the benefits that hard working people have bargained their working careers for, then the AARP has an extremely valid argument and they desire to have that argument tested by the Supreme Court.

In a choppy/consolidating (or perhaps worse) market, discretion dictates that one looks for companies where the demographics are running in the company's favor. Health care services in the United States is one such sector, and in this category, Stryker Corp (NYSE: SYK) is worth an evaluation.

Stryker (NYSE: SYK) is a leading provider of artificial hip, prosthetic knee and trauma products.As one might sense, orthopedic implant demand is robust and looks to remain so in the immediate years ahead, and probably beyond. Not only because the U.S.'s population is aging, but also the population in key international markets.

Analysts see sustained, double-digit earnings growth driven by the above demand and by new product launches. Further, Stryker also has modest pricing power, and analysts also see market share gains in selected business segments. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for SYK are $2.40/$2.88.

The risks? A negative change in Medicare reimbursement rates would hurt Stryker's results. The company also remains vulnerable to the emergence of a 'game changer' -- an innovative product launch by a competitor in one of its tech-intensive business lines.

The First Call mean rating for SYK is: Buy [22 firms]. Mean 2008 target: $82.00 [high: $90, low: $74].

Stock Analysis: Stryker is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than two years should be rewarded from SYK's shares. Sell / Stop Loss: $48.

In the weeks ahead, BloggingStocks will take an in-depth look at the U.S. dollar's decline, its impact on the global and U.S. economies, as well as on job creation, trade, and investment.

Remonstrations about the weak U.S. dollar are getting to be a little bit like what Mark Twain said about the weather:

"Everyone seems to complain about the weather, but no one ever seems to be able to do anything about it," Twain said.

Similarly, everyone seems to complain about the weak U.S. dollar, but no one ever seems to be able to do anything about it.

This time it was former U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, who Tuesday told Bloomberg News that relying on a falling currency to increase exports isn't a "sound approach" and said policies should be implemented to strengthen the dollar.

As noted, given the current choppy/consolidating market conditions, adding a few defensive plays is a prudent strategy. Humana Inc. (NYSE: HUM) is an insurer worth an evaluation.

Humana's Medicare and Medicare prescription business, 50-state presence, likely substantial membership growth, and cost controls make it an "insurance company of significance." Another major positive: the currently underserved Medicare population, and an expanding Medicare demographic, the latter courtesy of the U.S. baby boom generation's retirement. HUM closed Thursday up $3.43 to $76.93.

The qualifiers? Competition on HUM's commercial business side is a hurdle, but overall, the risk/return for this stock is favorable.

[Note: Technical analysis agnostics stop reading here; all others continue.]

Technically, Humana's chart looks strong. The stock did straddle its 50-day moving average this summer, but has since remained solidly above it, while also clearing $65-$68 resistance. With a new 52-week high recently in place and a P/E of 21, HUM is not cheap, but it's a reasonable price to pay for this safety-and-growth hybrid.

Stock Analysis: Humana is a low-risk stock. Investors with an investment horizon longer than 1 year should be rewarded from HUM's shares. A preferred entry price if one were to buy would be below $75, if the market presents that opportunity. Sell / Stop Loss: $47.

USA Today reports that at age 62, America's first baby boomer opted into Social Security today. The question for America is whether the 80 million people born between 1946 and 1964 will bankrupt Social Security by the time all of them are receiving their payments.

The caseload for so-called entitlements -- Social Security and Medicare -- is going to explode in the next 23 years. By 2030, Social Security's caseload will be 84 million people, up from 50 million today. Medicare will go from 44 million beneficiaries to 79 million. That will leave about two workers paying payroll taxes for every retiree. The tab is estimated at $50 trillion in future obligations over the next 75 years. Social Security will rise from 4% to 6% of the GDP, and Medicare will go from 3% to 11%.

The options are not good. Fixing Social Security solely with higher taxes or cuts in spending would mean a 16% increase in the payroll tax or a 13% cut in benefits. Medicare's needs would be far greater: a 122% payroll tax hike or a 51% reduction in spending, just for hospital care. Unfortunately, the longer we wait to fix the problem, the more it will cost.

However, if history is any guide, we'll wait until a crisis before we find the will to act. And that crisis will fall on the shoulders of the baby boomers' children and grandchildren -- not much of a legacy.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) is higher today on reports that the U.S. Senate has passed a resolution requesting that the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services start reconsidering the final National Coverage Determination issued July 30 on anemia drugs for cancer patients, including Amgen's Epogen and Aranesp. If you think this means that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on AMGN.

After hitting a one year high of $77.00 in October, the stock has slipping over the past year, touching a 52-week low of $48.30 in mid-August. AMGN opened this morning at $53.23. So far today the stock has hit a low of $52.15 and a high of $53.39. As of 11:05, AMGN is trading at $52.22, up $0.88 (1.7%). The chart for AMGN looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bull-put credit spread below the $47.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in just 6 weeks as long as AMGN is above $47.50 at October expiration. Amgen would have to fall by more than 9% before we would start to lose money.

HealthSouth Corporation (NYSE: HLS), the Alabama-based rehabilitation company, is close to completing a massive restructuring after years of tough times.

New management, three divestitures to be completed by the end of 2007 and a soon-to-be-more-friendly approach from Medicare and Medicaid, should allow this stock to perform nicely during the next three-to-five years.

HealthSouth was a boom-bust stock as former CEO Richard Scrushy built the diversified healthcare company into one of the larger and faster growing healthcare companies in the US during the 1990s. However, a number of financial irregularities came back to haunt Scrushy and his shareholders, leading to the stock tanking.

New management was brought in earlier this decade--well-respected execs from HCA--who first had to address the legal and accounting issues that plagued the company. Then last year the company announced it would begin selling non-core assets and become a focused rehab business.

The divestitures are for the most part completed and now the last part of the puzzle needs to be put in place. Medicare and Medicaid need to get the correct reimbursement rates so this very important industry can serve customers effectively and earn a return on investment. As boomers get older and stay more active, the rehab service that HealthSouth provides will become more and more important.

HealthSouth's stock ran up to $25 in anticipation of its three divestitures but has sold off to $20.50. Use this weakness to buy the stock, this could be a multi-bagger in the next few years.