Sirius XM (SIRI) reaches 11th-hour deal originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 17 Feb 2009 09:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Sirius XM (NASDAQ: SIRI) is up against debt payments that its management has been saying would not be a problem.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "Sirius XM Satellite Radio Inc. is facing an important test of its viability this month: how it handles $174.6 million in debt coming due Feb. 17." Since the company has not reported its fourth quarter, no one knows for certain how much cash Sirius has. More debt payments are due later in the year.

Could the debt problem this month push Sirius into Chapter 11? It is impossible to tell, but the obligation has not been renegotiated or replaced with new debt.

Continue reading For Sirius (SIRI), chapter 11 looms

For Sirius (SIRI), chapter 11 looms originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 02 Feb 2009 09:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Sirius XM Radio

Continue reading Sirius XM shareholders OK reverse stock split -- it's not going to help

Sirius XM shareholders OK reverse stock split -- it's not going to help originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 19 Dec 2008 09:39:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Okay, let me state clearly at the beginning here that Sirius XM (NASDAQ: SIRI) closed on Monday at $0.27 per share. Right from the start, you know we're talking about a risky stock -- a lottery ticket, as they say. And since our subject is the result of a recent merger, there's a lot of pro forma data located in the press release detailing the satellite-radio company's Q3 performance.

According to that pro forma data, revenues increased 16% to almost $613 million. The pro forma net loss was halved to $0.09 per share. It's funny, because when you look through the numbers, you almost feel compelled to come away with a good feeling about the story. Total subscribers increased 17% on a year-over-year basis, subscriber-acquisition costs decreased, cost synergies are manifesting themselves, and projections for free-cash-flow generation seem to be attractive.

However, one has to realize that an attractive cash-flow statement isn't around the corner. Positive free cash flow should begin on an annual basis in 2010. Plus, Sirius XM management must deal with refinancing its debt. And it did make a $4.8 billion write-down relating to goodwill impairment. Also, the economic problems of auto manufacturers such as Ford (NYSE: F) and General Motors (NYSE: GM) are not helping Sirius XM. If car sales are down, then adoption of the satellite-radio company's programming is challenged. It's a simple relationship.

Continue reading It's probably best to stay away from Sirius XM, but...

It's probably best to stay away from Sirius XM, but... originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 11 Nov 2008 09:28:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Sorry Dolly Parton, the law is on the side of Sirius' Howard Stern

Sorry Dolly Parton, the law is on the side of Sirius' Howard Stern originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 16 May 2008 14:41:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Sirius Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) reported Q4 and full-year earnings this morning, and I have to say that the company, led by the famous and highly-respected CEO Mel Karmazin, tuned into some good numbers. Revenues for the fourth quarter increased 29%; for the full fiscal year, revenues jumped 45%. The net diluted loss narrowed during the quarter to $0.11 per share versus $0.17 per share in the year-ago period, and for the year, it improved to $0.39 versus $0.79.

Perhaps the best news in the earnings release is the cash-flow situation. The company's free cash flow more than doubled for Q4, coming in at $75.9 million. And, hey, it was positive, which is important to note, since this company has sacrificed free cash over the years to invest in its platform. In fact, management noted that, for the first time, the second half of the year saw positive free cash flow (equal to $8.1 million for the period). And subscriber growth was impressive -- the company gained almost 2.3 million listeners, and it ended the year with 8.3 million subscribers. People gravitate toward the various popular brands featured on the platform, which includes shows by Playboy (NYSE: PLA), Jamie Foxx, and, of course, the king of all media past, present, and future, Howard Stern. There's also a lot of sports programming to add value for subscribers, as well as an upcoming slate of health programming called "Doctor Radio."

So, why does the stock trade in the low single digits? Why is it priced so speculatively? For one thing, there is the merger issue with XM Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: XMSR). Until that goes through, investors will have to wait for further guidance on the combination of the two platforms. Also, the market is going to want to see some consistent reports of positive net income on a GAAP basis to become really excited. I like the numbers currently associated with Sirius, and I think it may offer some upside potential for risk capital. As for myself? I'm not inclined to play it just yet. I'd rather see some technical strength assert itself before jumping in.

Tuning in to the Sirius (SIRI) earnings channel originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 26 Feb 2008 15:34:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Sirius Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) ended the year with 8.3 million subscribers, up 38%. The company would probably prefer to have had its merger with XM Satellite (NASDAQ: XMSR) approved, but the subscriber growth is a consolation prize.

Chief Executive Mel Karmazin told The Wall Street Journal, "Our gross subscriber additions in 2007 were the highest in the history of satellite radio."

That still leaves open the question of whether Sirius is a viable company without the merger. It lost $121 million last quarter and it has long-term debt of almost $1.3 billion.

Some analysts believe that the merger will bring savings. But, the talent on the two satellite networks is not likely to want to take pay cuts. The new company would also have to run two networks for some period because the systems are not comparable.

The subscriber additions are nice news, but the company is still a long way from being viable.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Sirius gets more subscribers, but no merger originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 04 Jan 2008 11:22:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The sizable hurdles of regulatory approval on the part of the Justice Department and the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) remain. Those opposed to the collaboration say the deal would create a monopoly in the satellite radio industry and point to the failed merger attempt between EchoStar Communications (NASDAQ: DISH), parent of the DISH Network, and DirecTV.

Continue reading Sirius, XM shareholders approve merger

Sirius, XM shareholders approve merger originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 14 Nov 2007 11:36:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Sirius Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) volatility at 68; Arbitrage spread tightens into FCC decision.

• SIRI is recently up $0.22 to $3.53, over 6%. SIRI and XMSR announced on 2/20/07 a merger of equals. XMSR shareholders will receive 4.6 SIRI shares for each XMSR share.
  
• Cowen says: "We expect FCC approval before Dec. 4, the end of the FCC review period. We believe approval as early as Oct. is possible. Maintain Outperform on both XMSR & SIRI."
  
• XMSR-SIRI arbitrage premium spread is at 12%. Mel Karmazin is CEO of SIRI.
  
• XMSR December option implied volatility of 68 is above its 26-week average of 51 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

XM Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: XMSR) volatility up; Arbitrage spread tightens into FCC decision.

• XMSR is recently up $1.07 to $14.69.
  
• SIRI October option implied volatility of 71 is above its 26-week average of 53 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Option update: Sirus Satellite (SIRI) and XM (XMSR) volatility up into FCC decision originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 12 Sep 2007 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The Federal Communications Commission is finally going to begin its review of the Sirius Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) purchase of XM Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: XMSR). This gives the agency 180 days to complete its look at whether the deal is "in the public interest."

Some members of Congress, citizen's groups, and the stock market have already cast votes on the deal. Except for Sirius CEO Mel Karmazin, most open voting has been to call for the transaction to be blocked. The FCC may feel the same way. Turning down the deal is probably the path of least resistance. Putting the companies together would create a monopoly, the argument goes. Monopolies are bad for the public because they take price competition out of the market.

Wall Street's reaction to the combination is simple. The stocks have been taken down over 20% since the announcement of the planned marriage. Both companies were already trading a historically low levels. What is hard to figure out is whether investors have cut down the shares because they think the deal is good, or have the fled because it is bad.

A combined company would have cost savings, but programming costs could rise as radio stars try to push up their rates because the new entity has more subscribers. If the FCC turns down the deal, the weak balance sheet of the companies could hamper growth. The bulls and bears each have their points of view, but it is hard to say that any one thesis is compelling.

One thing is for sure. The debate is almost over.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

The Sirius/XM trials finally begin originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 09 Jun 2007 15:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Sirius and XM shares continue to sink on merger worries originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 18 May 2007 10:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Sirius/XM merger? Not if Carmel Group can help it

Sirius/XM merger? Not if Carmel Group can help it originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 03 Apr 2007 14:01:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Arbitrage profit on XMSR takeover declining originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 20 Mar 2007 12:28:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Sirius versus TXU Corp originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 01 Mar 2007 15:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Sirius is not XM originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 28 Feb 2007 12:05:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

What is the chance that regulators will permit Sirius Satellite Radio, Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) and XM Satellite Radio Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: XMSR) to combine? According to the New York Times' DealBook, probability estimates range from "less than 50%" to 50%. Thus investors should calculate the value of SIRI and XMSR under at least two scenarios: one where the deal does not go through and the other where it does.

SIRI and XMSR are the only two satellite radio companies out there now. If they merged, the new company would have a monopoly -- which would enable it to raise prices to subscribers and advertisers without the check of competition. Preventing such abuse of monopoly power is one of the reasons that antitrust laws were established. Furthermore, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has a rule prohibiting XMSR and SIRI from ever owning each other's licenses.

Continue reading SIRI/XMSR: Calculating the antitrust odds

SIRI/XMSR: Calculating the antitrust odds originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 21 Feb 2007 09:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Sirius could be off to the races with potential cash flow positive numbers expected in fourth quarter originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 03 Jan 2007 13:28:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Sirius Satellite Radio, Inc.(NASDAQ:SIRI) will offer live TV service by the end of 2007 in 2008 car models. So says Mel Karmazin, the Sirius CEO.

The new service will cost $13 a month more that radio service, but it is not clear how much the new system will add to the price of a car. Karmazin hopes that the new service will increase yield-per-subscriber.

It is a shrewd move for Sirius. If it can get to market with the service before XM, Satellite Radio Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:XMSR) it would offer the smaller satellite radio company a significant "first mover" advantage that could help SIRI get closer to XMSR in terms of total subscriber count. If XM does not have the service, it could also push Sirius well ahead in subscriber yields.

That's If people want TV in their cars. Rear-seat entertainment centers are already a staple in many automobiles. Most play DVDs. It is safe to assume that the cost of the hardware for the TV service will not be cheap. What consumers will pay for the intial system is hard to say.

But, it is innovative.

Douglas McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

Sirius moves to live TV to get back on track originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 01 Dec 2006 11:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Firing quite the shot across the bow of its satellite radio rival, Sirius Satellite Radio CEO Mel Karmazin told audience members at a conference on media convergence that he'd happily buy XM Satellite Radio. Executives from XMSR (surely wondering what "the right price" might, exactly, mean) hadn't commented, yet, at the time of this post.

That would be quite some convergence. As the two companies have raced each other to forge deals with opposing car makers and big media names, and have struggled to out-innovate and out-subscribe one another, it seems as if nothing defines the sector so much as the rivalry.

Monopolistic concerns would certainly be raised by regulators, although really: what harm could come of having only one satellite radio company? It's not like consumers have no other choice for their listening pleasure in their cars, or anywhere else, for that matter -- what with offerings ranging from the iPod to the common FM station.

Regulators, it's possible, wouldn't agree with my "who cares?" analysis: they stopped an earlier proposed deal between DirecTV and Echostar.

Sirius: would happily buy XMSR (if regulators said 'yes') originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 26 Jun 2006 17:51:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.