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Serious Money: Whittling away at the Dow - IBM, JNJ, JPM, MCD & MRK: Part 5

After reviewing two thirds of the thirty Dow Jones Industrials, I am surprised to find as much opportunity as I have and as there appears to be. I did not start out expecting to find much value, if at all, in the Dow. Yet, out of the nineteen stocks I've covered in the first four parts, I've found six possibilities in total ... and I still have eleven stocks to go.

Here are the value plays so far: Alcoa Aluminum (NYSE: AA), American International Group (NYSE: AIG), Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT), Disney (Walt) Company (NYSE: DIS), and Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) and Home Depot (NYSE: HD). You can link to Part 1 of this series, Part 2, Part 3 or Part 4 for your own review and comments. Stocks 20 through 24 follow.

International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM) has been making some good moves lately and Wall Street has been reacting favorably. I have owned IBM shares several years ago and sold for a modest gain. The stock has been asleep for years and it looks fairly valued to me now. Very little of the data points I see stand out: IBM has an average P/E of 17.5, a lower than average yield of 1.5%. It does clear a good, not great, profit margin of 10.38%. The thing that looks most favorable about IBM, though, is its ROE, which is 30.25 (TTM) and far exceeds the P/E -- this has been a good indicator for me in the past. I would think most of its growth will be overseas but I do not see IBM moving at any faster rate than the index itself. There are many on Wall Street who disagree, pegging IBM as high as $175 per share in a few years based on its focus on higher margin software sales and service contracts, but I'd rather buy the index over the stock.

Continue reading Serious Money: Whittling away at the Dow - IBM, JNJ, JPM, MCD & MRK: Part 5

The 'WOW Principal' of Investing: Find winners like MRK, Petro-China

Contrarian (noun), pronounced con.trar.i.an. : A person who takes a contrary position or attitude; specifically : an investor who buys shares of stock when most others are selling and sells when others are buying.

Turning things inside out, and upside down is basic to contrarian and value investing. In this article I will share my WOW Principal of investing.

WOW Principal origin: Observing how my wife manages our family I have been in awe. It's true: "a mother's work is never done." To express my amazement, I have exclaimed WOW often. MOM upside down spells WOW! There are many times that Mom's world is upside down, juggling three kids and an ever increasing number of commitments with spectacular efficiency. She is also an architect and my partner in our architecture practice. In my bio, I referred to my relationship with my wife as my best investment, and since we met many years ago, I have been collecting dividends.

So, it is with my wife in mind that the WOW Principal of investing came to be. It is a perfect fit with my investing style. Simply stated: If, after thorough analysis of an investment, you are not in awe of your findings (company data, news, trends and surprises) and you do cannot exclaim WOW! (double WOW is even better!), then it is not a worthy investment.

If however, the investment does reach WOW status, you are in business. I do not invest unless I think there is an amazing opportunity and any risk is understandable and acceptable. Good is not good enough, it must be a great opportunity, and the case must be very convincing.

When things are upside down or people's perspective is jaded, there may be a deep value opportunity and my interest is peaked. At the point of discovery is a moment that begins when I say "hmm," and stroke my beard. Then I spend time with my investigation and analysis. But I do not fork over any cash until I find the WOW factor(s). If you find yourself scratching your head and saying huh? instead of "Wow," move on!

Continue reading The 'WOW Principal' of Investing: Find winners like MRK, Petro-China

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IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+30.6910,464.40
NASDAQ+6.872,176.05
S&P 500+4.981,110.63

Last updated: November 25, 2009: 04:29 PM

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