Monday was an extremely trying day for my portfolio and me. Talk about depressing. Let's see, CapitalSource (NYSE: CSE) took a dive of almost 15% on hellishly high volume (it traded more than 17 million shares on Monday, and AOL Finance lists the 30-day average volume as being a little under 3 million shares) on news about a money-losing sale of assets. Now, once I saw CapitalSource moving down, I knew that Newcastle Investment (NYSE: NCT) wasn't going to be trading higher. Sure enough, there was indeed something new at Newcastle. A new 52-week low. The stock closed Monday at $7.06, down 10% and one penny above the low. And then there's MFA Mortgage (NYSE: MFA). It too was down, although only about 2%. Yeah, only. All of these stocks are at prices well below my cost basis.

I'm at that weird crossroads all investors find themselves at some point. Is it too late to sell? Let me tell you, I don't want to be one of those panic sellers who regrets dumping his stocks because as soon as he does so they start to rise. But, I don't want to be one of those holders who doesn't know when enough is enough. It's pretty rough. You don't know whether to add to positions that are faring poorly and thus risk throwing away money, or whether to avoid adding money and thus risk not getting some bargain prices. And in terms of Newcastle, my colleague Sheldon Liber is with me on this. He thinks the stock may turn out to be a value. See this article.

My other colleague, Timothy Sykes, has counseled me to instead focus on strong stocks that are working. I can't say he doesn't have a point. Indeed, my portfolio does seem rather masochistic. For now, though, I will try to avoid any emotional decisions. I am going to continue to watch the financial carnage as it further unfolds and evaluate every potential stock trade very carefully. This summer is going to be a tough one. I'll let you know what happens.

Disclosure I own CapitalSource, MFA, and Newcastle Investment; positions can change at any time.

I'm losing my patience with this market! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 24 Jun 2008 08:52:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MFA Mortgage (NYSE: MFA) had a good trading session yesterday. A cool thing, since it's well off its recent highs. The stock closed yesterday at $7.01, having risen over 11%. What was the catalyst? Well, some bullish commentary from an analyst certainly helped out, but, for my money, the bigger news was the increase in the dividend. MFA announced a Q1 payout of $0.18 per share, which is 24% higher than the previous quarter's dividend.

This is exactly what I want to see. I'm figuring that, over time, MFA will be able to make more increases to its dividend as it benefits from further rate cuts by the Fed. Granted, MFA did choose to reduce its leverage profile, as I mentioned in a recent post. Nevertheless, this dividend increase, in my opinion, shows that this particular mREIT is a cut above many and worth holding for now. It's going to be a volatile ride, and I expect some profit-taking based on yesterday's action, especially considering the fact that the volume of shares traded wasn't overly high.

Two of my other mREIT investments, Newcastle Investment (NYSE: NCT) and CapitalSource (NYSE: CSE), also fared well in yesterday's session. Another mortgage entity I'm keeping my eye on, Annaly Mortgage (NYSE: NLY), had a good day as well. Let's hope the financials are finally stabling -- granted, many financials, such as MFA, are way off their 52-week highs, but I have to say, I liked the way the second quarter started, and I certainly enjoyed MFA's dividend change.

Disclosure: I own shares of MFA, MFA preferred, CapitalSource, and Newcastle Investment; positions can change at any time.

MFA Mortgage hiked its dividend (and shareholders' spirits) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 02 Apr 2008 10:47:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

It's been a vicious down market in financials. Hey, I know of what I speak -- I own CapitalSource (NYSE: CSE), Newcastle Investment (NYSE: NCT) and MFA Mortgage (NYSE: MFA) in my portfolio. I've previously discussed how my investments have been left wounded and bloody at the claws of the angry bears that have been running rabid-crazy on Wall Street as of late.

But -- is it me, or do things feel a little better? Has the price action on the major market indexes put you in a better mood? Of course, I'm writing this before the market opens, so sentiment can change on a moment's notice, but still, it's worth noting that investors must study those beaten-down stocks that have a great brand history behind them and that one assumes will still be around years from now. Citigroup (NYSE: C) is a stock I've been thinking about the last couple days, especially after JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) found itself raising its bid for Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC). What I find somewhat appealing about Citi's stock is its 52-week range -- the low point was a share price of $17.99, while the high point was north of $55 per stub. No, I don't think Citi will rocket back to the high end of that range anytime soon, but I like that it has bounced off the low. As of yesterday's close, Citi was valued at $23.42.

Naturally, I'm trying to figure out if that $17.99 is the final low. I think it just might be, but I want to wait to see if Citi can go higher from here before deciding whether or not to enter. It would be hard to believe that Citi isn't going to be higher a few months from now than where it is trading at currently, especially considering its post-dividend-cut-yield. But I think the market is still capable of volatile swings even though, as I've stated, my mood has improved. Bottom line: Citi isn't far enough away from its low for me to enter right now. I guess those financials that I already own have got me thinking twice about this Dow stock.

Disclosure: I own shares in CapitalSource, Newcastle Investment, MFA common stock, and MFA preferred stock; positions can change at any time.

Is Citigroup appealing right now? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 26 Mar 2008 10:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Without a doubt, I picked the worst possible time to buy MFA Mortgage (NYSE: MFA). Not long ago, I wrote about my desire to get in on MFA. Well, I did. And now I am paying for it, it seems.

I made a few buys between $7 and $10, starting at the high end of the range and then working down. Today, MFA got hit again; as I write this, it's trading around $6 (the low for the day so far is $5.96). My portfolio is certainly getting bloodier.

The mortgage REIT sector is having a tough time because of analyst price-target reductions and falling book values. Annaly Capital (NYSE: NLY) and Anworth Mortgage (NYSE: ANH) are feeling the heat. MFA also has been doing some reduction in terms of leverage, as this recent press release tells us. I'll be following the mnREIT story. For now, though, I'm not selling, and I think MFA is, as Merrill Ross, an analyst at Friedman Billings Ramsey, states, rather cheap at the moment (I know, I know, it can just get cheaper, can't it...).

Disclosure: Steven Mallas owns shares of MFA common and MFA preferred shares; positions can change at any time.

Getting killed on MFA Mortgage originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 13 Mar 2008 14:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Well, all I can say is that today has been one of the worst days of my portfolio's life. I'm not concerned about my core holdings -- Disney (NYSE: DIS), Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), General Electric (NYSE: GE), stuff like that -- but, boy oh boy, are my financial positions taking some major hits!

I know, I know -- you're saying to yourself, "uh, buddy, didn't you realize this was going to happen?" Sure, but when the theory becomes reality, that's when the torture really starts to set in. Not sure if you caught the wave of downgrades today -- if you didn't, check out Eric Buscemi's post about it -- but I got hammered by one of them. MFA Mortgage (NYSE: MFA) was downgraded by Keefe Bruyette on book-value concerns. As I write this, it's trading down over 15% -- oooh, it hurts to write such a double-digit figure -- on, get this, volume of over 15 million shares. The 30-day average volume is closer to 4 million shares. I'm writing this with a couple hours to go to close! It's going to be a huge volume day once all is said and done. I also own Newcastle Investment (NYSE: NCT), CapitalSource (NYSE: CSE) and MFA preferred shares (NYSE: MFA-A).

Have I been shaken out yet? No. In fact, in terms of MFA, I personally think that it is a buy, even though it could be in falling-knife mode right now (that's always difficult to discern). I know Timothy Sykes would disagree on this strategy, so you should check out his post for some balance. With Ben Bernanke most likely set to cut the Fed Funds rate even further, MFA should benefit, as should most financials. I also like CapitalSource, but I am a little wary at this point of Newcastle -- I think it will recover, but that one's been particularly volatile. As they say, when there's blood on Wall Street, that's sometimes the best time to do some judicious buying (after a ton of due diligence, of course). And, as a postscript, if you want to do only safe buying, then Disney, Coke and GE might be good ideas to look at -- GE has an especially interesting yield right now.

Disclosure: Steven Mallas owns shares in Disney, Coca-Cola, MFA common and MFA preferred, CapitalSource, Newcastle Investment, and GE. Positions can change at any time.

There will be blood -- in my portfolio ... originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 06 Mar 2008 14:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Keefe Bruyette downgraded Anworth Mortgage (NYSE: ANH) and MFA Mortgage (NYSE: MFA) to Market Perform from Outperform to reflect lower book value estimates based on the widening in agency spreads.
  
• Deutsche Bank downgraded New Star Asset Management (OTC: NWSAF) to Sell from Buy, as they are negative on the company's business model and growth prospects in the current environment.
  
• Saks (NYSE: SKS) was cut to Neutral from Buy at Banc of America as they believe the high-end is slowing.

• Goldman downgraded Lonmin Plc (OTC: LNMIY) to Neutral from Buy.
  
• RBC Capital downgraded Maguire Properties (NYSE: MPG) and First Potomac (NYSE: FPO) to Underperform from Sector Perform.
  
• Shares of Zumiez (NASDAQ: ZUMZ) were downgraded to Neutral from buy at Piper and to Neutral from Positive at Susquehanna.

Analyst downgrades: ANH, MFA, NWSAF and SKS originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 06 Mar 2008 11:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• HSBC downgraded Novartis (NYSE: NVS) to Underweight from Neutral, as they believe the company's mid-single digit pharma sales growth is not sustainable.
  
• AIG (NYSE: AIG) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform by Keefe Bruyette due to their concerns about the company's deteriorating profit trends.
  
• Diageo (NYSE: DEO) was lowered to Neutral from Buy by Goldman Sachs to reflect a lack of near-term catalysts.
  
• Deutsche Bank downgraded BEA Systems (NASDAQ: BEAS) to Hold from Buy, as they believe it is likely that the acquisition will close in April.

• Live Nation (NYSE: LYV) was dropped to Hold from Buy by Morgan Joseph.
• Jackson Hewitt (NYSE: JTX) was dropped to Neutral from Buy at FTN Midwest.
• Roth Capital downgraded Collagenex (NASDAQ: CGPI) to Hold from Buy.
• Credit Suisse lowered MFA Mortgage (NYSE: MFA) to Neutral from Outperform.

Analyst downgrades: NVS, AIG, DEO and BEAS originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 29 Feb 2008 11:38:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Lehman upgraded the small-cap bank sector to Neutral from Negative as they expect the group to benefit from the decline in short-term interest rates and the steeping yield curve. The firm upgraded Associated Banc-Corp (NASDAQ: ASBC), Pacific Capital Bancorp (NASDAQ: PCBC) and Westpac Banking Corp (NYSE: WBK) to Equal Weight from Underweight.
  
• Friedman Billings added Waste Connections (NYSE: WCN) to its Top Picks list. The firm believes the company can outperform the group and overall market in an economic downturn.
  
• Warnaco Group (NASDAQ: WRNC) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan on valuation and growth potential.
  
• JMP Securities' checks indicate that Intersections (NASDAQ: INTX) is on track to meet EPS expectations for the quarter and is well positioned to beat their 2008 EPS estimate of 80c. The firm raised shares to Strong Buy from Outperform.

• Best Buy Incorporated (NYSE: BBY) and AutoZone (NYSE: AZO) were upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James.
  
• The firm also upgraded shares of CBRL Group (NASDAQ: CBRL) to Market Perform from Outperform.
  
• JP Morgan upgraded Ruby Tuesday (NYSE: RT) and Plexus Corp (NASDAQ: PLXS) to Overweight from Neutral.
  
• Bear Stearns raised MFA Mortgage Investments (NYSE: MFA) to Outperform from Peer Perform.
  
• Goldman added Automatic Data Processing (NYSE: ADP) to its Conviction Buy List.

Analyst upgrades: Small-cap banks, WCN, WRNC and INTX originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 19 Sep 2007 10:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.