Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) closed at $18.31. VLO is expected to report Q2 EPS on July 28. Crude oil futures are recently up 0.82% to $68.61. VLO August call option implied volatility is at 38, puts are at 43; below its 26-week average of 61, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) closed at $7.73. MGM is expected to report Q2 EPS on August 3. August option implied volatility is at 83; September is at 87; below its 26-week average of 110, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Analyst upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded Lennar (NYSE: LEN) to Buy from Hold as it believes the company's near-term liquidity profile is improved following the $400M debt issuance. The firm raised its target price to $12 from $11.
• Jefferies upgraded Rowan Companies (NYSE: RDC) to Buy from Hold as it believes jack-up drillers will continue to outperform deepwater names. The firm raised its target price to $27 from $20.
• Keefe Bruyette upgraded First Financial (NASDAQ: FFIN) to Market Perform from Underperform to reflect more positive loan data for the Texas banks. The firm raised its target price on shares to $44 from $38.
• MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.
• Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at JMP Securities.
• Brinker (NYSE: EAT) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays.

MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) showed its hand in the earnings confessional Monday night after the close. The gaming firm banked 38 cents per share, or $105.2 million, compared with year-ago results of 40 cents ($118.3 million). Net revenue was down 20% to $1.5 billion.

Excluding gains related to the sale of Treasure Island resort, the company lost six cents per share, falling short of analysts' estimates. MGM CEO and Chairman Jim Murren told investors in a conference call that while room rates are "firming" and overall demand seems improved, "[MGM] is not out of the woods yet by any stretch in this market ... at least [visitors] have got their wallets in their pockets [now] and they're spending a little more."

Late last Friday, casino giant MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) announced that it would provide $200 million to keep its $8.7 billion CityCenter project running.

This move should help resolve a "likely bankruptcy filing." Of the $200 million, $100 million should be provided by Dubai World, which is MGM's partner in the CityCenter joint venture. MGM stated that the funding is "with the authorization of its senior lenders" and satisfies the necessary sponsor equity contributions.

After days of rallying, the market decided that bank stocks had gone much too far. With no first quarter earnings out, the fact is that the current quarter could still be tough. Financial shares could still reset lower. The market reacted accordingly.

The unofficial numbers for the day broke out like this:

Dow 7,278.38 -122.42 (-1.65%)
S&P 500 768.54 -15.50 (-1.98%)
Nasdaq 1,457.27 -26.21 (-1.77%)

TOP ANALYST CALLS

Will some lights go out in Vegas? Donald Trump rolled the dice and lost. His Trump Entertainment Resorts has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Not to be outdone MGM Miraage (NYSE: MGM) now has the dice and must make its points to stay in the game.

In an economy like this, is anyone going to the game?

Yes -- but Pittsburgh people will stay in their cars (hotels are too expensive), and the Arizona people will stay in foreclosed houses (so they should feel right at home).

Speaking of hotels -- short 'em.

I received an e-mail from the Mirage in Las Vegas to come out to watch the Super Bowl for $69 a night.

Last time I was there for the Super Bowl, maybe 15 years ago, it was about $400 a night.

The Mirage is owned by MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM), which is hovering at a technical support price. Once it breaks through, look out.

I'm not traveling to Tampa or Las Vegas -- I'm staying at home for the big game. And I'm shorting MGM.

Michael Shulman is a contributor to OptionsZone.com.

It's Super Bowl time.

This day of the year has almost reached holiday status where families and friends gather in front of big-screen TV to spend six hours watching a typically boring football game and stuffing themselves with nachos, wings and beer.

With all of the hoopla surrounding the event, this is a good time for investors to go for some Super Bowl profits.

Why? Looks like it's not just a pseudo-holiday -- it's a tradition:

MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) has reached a deal to sell its Treasure Island Hotel & Casino to Phil Ruffin for $500 million in cash. The deal has a total value of $775 million including $275 million in secured notes. In a press release announcing the deal, Ruffin said that "We are very excited to be in a position to acquire such a stellar property in Treasure Island. The property is in pristine condition, ideally located in the heart of the Strip and benefits from a wonderful team of outstanding employees. We are financially positioned to close on this transaction once all of the necessary approvals have been received."

MGM said it anticipates recording a "substantial gain" on the sale of the property, which was purchased as part of MGM Grand's acquisition of Mirage Resorts in May of 2000.

Shares of MGM Mirage are up about 11% on the news, although they were up more than 23% in earlier trading. Given the state of the economy and MGM's leveraged balance sheet, the proceeds of the deal are likely to be used to pay down the company's substantial debt load.

Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) closed at $36.84. LVS September option implied volatility is at 114, October is at 95; above its 26-week average of 61 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN) is recently down $3.52 t $81.90. WYNN September implied volatility is at 74; October is at 70; above its 26-week average of 59 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) closed at $32.45. MGM September option implied volatility is at 93, October is at 91; above its 26-week average of 70, suggesting larger movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM / option chains) shares are soaring higher today even though the company announced its second-quarter profit fell 68.6% to $113.1 million as resorts lowered room rates and visitors spent less money. MGM posted earnings of 40 cents per share on sales of $1.9 billion, while analysts expected earnings of 42 cents per share on revenue of $1.89 billion.

Even though the EPS missed estimates, investors seem to be focusing on revenues that beat estimates. The gaming sector has been beaten down so much over the first half of this year that it is possible anything other than a complete meltdown is a catalyst for the stock to rise. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on MGM.

MGM opened this morning at $31.31. So far today the stock has hit a low of $31.04 and a high of $34.29. As of 2:35, MGM is trading at $33.85, up $2.85 (9.2%). The chart for MGM looks neutral and S&P gives MGM a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a September bull-put credit spread below the $22.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in just seven weeks as long as MGM is above $22.50 at September expiration. MGM would have to fall by more than 33% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Kohlberg Capital, ClickSoftware and Liberty Property Trust were today's noteworthy initiations:

• JMP Securities started shares of Kohlberg Capital (NASDAQ: KCAP) with an Outperform rating and $14 target. The firm believes Kohlberg Capital's alliance with Kohlberg and Company allows Kohlberg Capital to take advantage of considerable expertise. JMP Securities believes Kohlberg Capital has an attractive risk/reward ratio.
  
• Roth Capital initiated ClickSoftware (NASDAQ: CKSW) with a Hold rating and $3.60 target and expects EPS pressure from the depreciating dollar near-term.
  
• Liberty Property Trust (NYSE: LRY) was initiated with a Hold rating at Stifel, citing lack of internal earnings divers and fair valuation.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Oppenheimer initiated VisionChina Media (NASDAQ: VISN) with a Perform rating and $25 target.
  
• Merrill assumed MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) with a Neutral rating.
  
• Morgan Stanley started BJ's Wholesale (NYSE: BJ) and Costco (NASDAQ: COST) with Equal Weight ratings.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• According to internal company and agency documents, the Wall Street Journal reported that the FAA is investigating into why AMR Corporation's (NYSE: AMR) American Airlines ordered mechanics to skip specific safety instructions to detect damage to planes from potential lightning strikes.
• In order to compete more effectively against Apple Inc's (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone, the Wall Street Journal reported that Research in Motion Limited (NASDAQ: RIMM) is planning to introduce "Thunder," a touch-screen version of its BlackBerry device.

OTHER PAPERS:

• Yahoo! Inc (NASDAQ: YHOO) is trying to quickly put the finishing touches on a search advertising deal with Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) as billionaire Carl Icahn launches a proxy fight for control of Yahoo's board, according to the New York Post. Yahoo! hopes to announce a deal with Google to create an open platform system within the next week, two inside sources said.
• The New York Post reported that a partnership of MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) and investment company Dubai World may seek to buy the Drake Hotel site from developer Harry Macklowe. If a deal is reached, MGM and Dubai World would assume $580M in defaulted debt and interest, inside sources said.

MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) stock is falling after an analyst at UBS downgraded the stock to "Neutral" from "Buy," citing declining business on the Las Vegas Strip. A Wachovia analyst also cut his estimates for MGM and other casinos, saying that the Vegas market is "uncertain." If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on MGM.

After hitting a one-year high of $100.50 in October, the stock hit a one-year low of $57.26 in March.. This morning, MGM opened at $60.58. So far today the stock has hit a low of $57.90 and a high of $60.58. As of 1:45, MGM is trading at $58.84, down $2.23 (-3.9%). The chart for MGM looks neutral but improving, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a June bear-call credit spread above the $75 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in two and a half months as long as MGM is below $75 at June expiration. MGM would have to rise by more than 28% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

MGM hasn't been above $75 since early January and has shown resistance around $65 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out in late April or early May) are a positive surprise, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance MGM might find around $73, where it topped out in January and February.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in MGM.

"MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) is arguably the world's top publicly traded casino gaming company; from budget-minded families at the Excalibur to high-rollers at the Bellagio, no segment of the market should slip through the cracks," says value investor Nathan Slaughter.

In Half-Priced Stocks, he explains, "But this is just the beginning: the firm has ambitious plans to leverage its brands and take its gaming/hospitality experience to other growing markets around the world."

"Thanks in part to a landmark merger with cross-town rival Mandalay Group several years ago, MGM is now the dominant player on the booming Las Vegas Strip. The merger also brought together two complementary property portfolios, adding Mandalay's low/mid-tier casinos to MGM's mid/high-end resorts.

"The company also has upscale resorts in other high-profile markets, including Atlantic City's Borgata, Detroit's MGM Grand, and the Beau Rivage on Mississippi's Gulf Coast. Combined, the firm operates around 20 properties featuring more than 42,000 hotel rooms.

"And looking ahead, a busy development pipeline and global expansion plans should keep both of those totals moving briskly forward. The company recently celebrated the introduction of MGM Grand Detroit last October, and that property has already hit the ground running and emerged as a market leader.