Michael Shulman posts
FeedPosted Mar 31st 2011 12:30PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: Newsletters, Schlumberger Limited (SLB), Commodities, Oil, Stocks to Buy
"Schlumberger Limited (SLB) is the world's leading oil services company, assisting in exploration, production and most other oil services; its operations include being a leader in applying proprietary technologies to extract hard-to-extract oil and gas," says Michael Shulman.
The editor of The Short-Side Trader suggests, "Let's ask ourselves the following question: Over the next year is the there going to be more, less or an equal demand for oil? The answer is clearly more demand.
"Another question: Over the next year is there going to be more, less or an equal supply of oil?
Continue reading Schlumberger (SLB): A 'Great Opportunity'
Posted Mar 21st 2010 1:00PM by Michael Shulman (RSS feed)
Filed under: Amgen Inc (AMGN), Stocks to Sell
A lot of investors think Amgen (AMGN) is a great next-generation biotech company. Wrong. Amgen was a decent last-generation biotech company.
It's terribly managed outfit living on EPO drugs for dialysis and oncology patients. True, it has a billion dollar (actually more) drug, Neupogen, but it could be subject to generic competition in the United States from TEVA within two years.
Continue reading Deadbeat Stock #6: Amgen (AMGN)
Posted Mar 21st 2010 11:00AM by Michael Shulman (RSS feed)
Filed under: Merck and Co (MRK), Stocks to Sell
This declining company lost patent protection for its statin, Zocor. It has replaced some of these sales with three new drugs, but, in reality, they cannot make up for the lost revenue from Zocor.
Merck's (MRK) revenues are stagnant and the company has a very weak pipeline. Even if health care reform adds more patients, it will also bring increased pressure to cut prices.
Continue reading Deadbeat Stock #5: Merck (MRK)
Posted Mar 21st 2010 9:00AM by Michael Shulman (RSS feed)
Filed under: Pfizer (PFE), Stocks to Sell
Pfizer (PFE) was the darling of the 1990s. Well, so was Bill Clinton, and like Clinton, the company pops up now and again in the news, but none of it really matters.
Pfizer's premier product, Lipitor, comes off patent this year and will get hit by generic competition in 2011. This drug has $11 billion in sales, which will shrink to $4 billion or less, and with that could go $5 billion or so in profits.
Continue reading Deadbeat Stock #4: Pfizer (PFE)
Posted Mar 20th 2010 3:00PM by Michael Shulman (RSS feed)
Filed under: Stocks to Sell
A well-managed company that may be worth buying someday, currently Brunswick's (BC) profits rely too heavily on making and selling boats.
Who needs a boat? You may want one, but you certainly don't need one. And when you find the cash (since there's no credit available) to buy one, you can get a used one; they are falling off the dry docks.
Continue reading Deadbeat Stock #3: Brunswick (BC)
Posted Mar 20th 2010 1:00PM by Michael Shulman (RSS feed)
Filed under: Palm Inc (PALM), Stocks to Sell
Would anyone care if Palm (PALM) went away -- other than its employees and shareholders?
This company is seeing sales decline, and its new best hope, the Pre, is competing against the iPhone, BlackBerry and Droid.
That means a company with little cash and a market cap under a billion dollars is fighting, with an inferior and overpriced product, against the combined strength of Apple (AAPL), Research In Motion (RIMM) and Google (GOOG). End of discussion.
At the time of this writing, the author did not own shares of PALM.
Next: Deadbeat Stock #3: Brunswick (BC)
Posted Jan 31st 2010 11:00AM by Michael Shulman (RSS feed)
Filed under: Bad News, Goldman Sachs Group (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS)
Banks are the kink between the financial markets and the Main Street economy. They are also the lubricant -- when they are lending -- of a growing economy.
Using time-honored but now discarded accounting standards, U.S. banks, as a group, are insolvent. They are hoarding cash because deep in the recesses of little offices, they know they will be exposed as insolvent if they have to dump toxic assets on the market. They are also looking at reduced activity due to the economy and new taxes and regulations, and therefore lower profits. And when the Fed raises interest rates, their spreads will contract, also hitting profits.
Continue reading Reason #4 to Short the U.S.: The Banks
Posted Jan 31st 2010 9:00AM by Michael Shulman (RSS feed)
Filed under: Bad News
With reduced national income due to unemployment, reduced spending power due to tightened credit, reduced wealth due to falling home and stock market values and reduced confidence due to all of the above, we are seeing consumers take on new attitudes toward spending.
This "New Frugal" will not be a fad that passes quickly. U.S. consumers will continue to keep their purse strings tightened.
Continue reading Reason #3 to Short the U.S.: The 'New Frugal'
Posted Jan 30th 2010 1:00PM by Michael Shulman (RSS feed)
Filed under: Bad News, Housing
The optimism on Wall Street about housing is surreal given all the public data on housing values, mortgage defaults, foreclosures and new home starts.
Housing prices are going to fall nationally for another couple of years as foreclosures hit 6-7 million in the next 30 months, and the 600,00 to 800,000 homes foreclosed but not yet listed are added to housing inventory. The headwinds created by this will last until foreclosures peak and those homes hit the market in late 2011 to mid-2012. Foreclosures will not hit historical norms until a year or two from that peak.
Continue reading Reason #2 to Short the U.S.: The Housing Market Isn't Recovering
Posted Jan 30th 2010 11:00AM by Michael Shulman (RSS feed)
Filed under: Bad News, ETF Investing
Large and rapidly growing deficits and public debt at the federal and state level will eventually lead to a rise in interest rates and to the crowding out of other spending as governments service debt. This will likely start near the end of this year or early in 2011.
And please don't blame the Democrats, the party of fiscal rectitude. The Republicans doubled the debt while they controlled the White House and Congress, financing a war off balance sheet, led by a cheerleader in chief who told people to go shopping rather than tighten their belts after 9/11. And historically, red-staters spend more on their key constituents than the Dems, so if they grab power, nothing will change.
Continue reading Reason #1 to Short the U.S.: Public Debt
Posted Jan 30th 2010 9:00AM by Michael Shulman (RSS feed)
Filed under: Bad News, Goldman Sachs Group (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), ETF Investing, Housing
I love my country: the chaos, the hurly-burly of democracy, the hard work of quiet people and the great, big heart as shown by our private donations to Haiti at a time of near 20% unemployment and underemployment. We forgive wayward politicians and athletes, let our children make more decisions than virtually any people on Earth and we stand for something -- a true city on a hill. But right now, that city is in political chaos ... and pretty broke.
Although, I don't like to say it, it is time to short the United States.
Continue reading Five Reasons to Short the U.S.
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