Mohamed El-Erian posts

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Housing starts and producer prices are down in July

Two key reports, one on housing and the other on producer prices give us more numbers to ponder.

First to the housing market:

  • The Commerce Department reported that housing starts fell 1% last month to 581,000 units.
  • Ground breaking for single family homes rose 1.7% to 490,000 units annually.
  • Construction of multi family units fell 13.3%
  • Confidence among home builders rose in August.
  • Permits for new building fell 1.8% to 560,000 units, down 39.4% from a year ago.
  • The inventory of total houses under construction fell to a record low of 609,000 while permits for new construction also hit a record low of 102,000 units.
  • Compared to last year housing starts fell 37.7%

Now let's look at producer prices.

Continue reading Housing starts and producer prices are down in July

The new normal: 2% economic growth?

During the current global crisis, many investors have been following the wisdom of Mohamed El-Erian, who is the co-CEO of Pimco, the largest bond manager. In fact, he recently put out a report, called the "Secular Outlook," which has a three-to-five year forecast.

Unfortunately, if El-Erian is correct, we'll need to get accustomed to a "new normal" of muted economic activity.

While the massive governmental intervention has helped to stabilize the financial system, there are nonetheless real costs, which will make it tougher for businesses to innovate and take risks. Plus, the de-leveraging process will continue to be a drag. It will also be tougher to engage in international trade because of new barriers.
The upshot is slower economic growth and higher unemployment.

Continue reading The new normal: 2% economic growth?

Yale grad takes over at Harvard's $35 billion endowment

In fascinating endowment news yesterday, Harvard University turned to one of its former investment stars to take the helm of the Ivy League's biggest endowment of $35 billion.

Currently chief investment officer at Wellesley College, Jane Mendillo has been tapped o become the president and chief executive of Harvard Management Company. She fills in the slot vacated by Mohamed El-Erian, the emerging market bond guru, who left last year after less than two years in the job to return to his previous post with Bill Gross' PIMCO.

Famed uber-investor Jack Meyer racked up impressive returns in his tenure at Harvard Management Company during the 1990s. According to Wikipedia, Meyer grew an endowment "worth $4.8 billion to a value of $25.9 billion (including new contributions). During the last decade of his tenure, the endowment earned an annualized return of 15.9%."

Not too shabby.

It's great to see a woman take over the helm of such a high-profile investment fund. The best part of this whole move is that Mendillo is a Yale grad!

Zack Miller is the managing editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund.

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Last updated: February 12, 2012: 09:27 AM

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