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Sunday Funnies: Did your mom give you this advice?

In this month' Money Magazine story, Calming words for troubled times the final words were by Deena Katz, Chairman, Evensky & Katz Wealth Management, who shared this "My mom always said, if you're going to do it, don't worry; if you're going to worry, don't do it."

Are you a worrier? Do you fret over everything? Can you undo those things you have already done that you are worried about? Sometimes it's tough. But maybe you should consider it. How does that apply to the stock market or investing in general. From that perspective it is very simple. Do not invest in anything that will keep you up at night.

While this may be good advice for most aspects of investing there is one time that it might cost you. When stocks are rising few people are worried. When stocks are falling everyone's worry factor rises. As their worry factor rises they tend to become sellers. This may relieve one of their worries but it also may relieve them of their money because it contradicts two other old bits of wisdom.

"Buy low and sell high" is a common refrain said tongue in cheek because a bell does not ring announcing the highs and lows. However, even 'my pal Warren' would advise that "investors should buy on fear and sell on greed". So then the modified version of mom's advice melding it with market realities is that you should be worried when others are not and remain calm when everyone else is panicking.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money.

Money magazine's best financial memoirs, and my favorites

The best and certainly most enjoyable way to learn about business is through stories. Harvard Business School realizes this, which is why it relies on its famous case studies for its MBA classes. But for the rest of us, there are memoirs offering a glimpse into the worlds of writers who played roles, however small, in American finance.

Money has its list of the top six financial memoirs, all of which are quite good. I would strongly urge you to pick up all of those at your local library (with the possible exception of Ben Franklin's which, alas, is rather unreadable). Here are two more you may want to check out:

Jim Cramer's Confessions of a Street Addict. This is Cramer's memoir of his days as a hedge fund manager -- screaming orders, throwing phones, and generally acting even more insane than he does on his TV show. It's an incredibly engaging book, and you may be surprised at what a terrifically talented journalist Jim Cramer is. Had he chosen journalism as a career over the financial markets, he probably would have become equally famous in that field. Regardless of what you think of his stock picks, Jim Cramer is a brilliant man and this is a brilliant book.

Andrew Tobias' The Funny Money Game. Before he was famous for his book The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need, Tobias was a vice president at a high-flying momentum stock called National Student Marketing, debating what island to retire to when his rich options package vested. Unfortunately, NSM collapsed in scandal, leaving Tobias' options worthless, but he still leaves us with this hilarious memoir about the life of a young executive at a chaotic young company embarking on almost-weekly acquisitions.

Money Magazine's funds for 2007: Why you should ignore lists like this

Each year, Money, along with the rest of the financial press, trots out its favorite mutual funds for the new year. I have a suggestion for how savvy investors can use such guides to select mutual funds: crumple them up, throw them in the trash. Then read The Boglehead's Guide to Investing, a great treatise on investing the John Bogle way. After that, log on to Vanguard.com and buy some indexed mutual funds.

But I digress. Here's why you should ignore Money's list of "the best mutual funds you can own." According to their own statistics, 67% of the "Money 70" funds performed in the top half of their category in 2006. That's a fairly impressive short-term track record, but certainly not amazing. It's even less amazing when you consider that Money screened for funds with low expense ratios, and the average fund that they selected had an expense ratio just over half that of the average mutual fund.

Here's the problem: according to all the relevant research (most notably in John Bogle's book), there is an extremely high correlation between a fund's expense ratio and its performance. It's the single most important factor in selecting a mutual fund. While I haven't run the data, I suspect that simply selecting all mutual funds with low expense ratios would provide a success rate better than the 67% that Money reported for their list. I just don't see anything particularly special about Money's list, and certainly nothing worth spending a few dollars on a magazine for.

Bottom line: the most important factor in selecting mutual funds is the expense ratio. To achieve strong diversification at an extremely low cost, consider buying Vanguard's total market index funds, as well as some of their international index funds for additional diversification.

Home Depot is getting very crowded

At the end of last year I selected The Home Depot (NYSE:HD) as one of my seven picks for the coming year in the post You don't have to be 007 to find the best picks for 2007! At the time I took notice of it my thoughts were reinforced by an article in Money Magazine by Michael Zivy, who also recommended Lowes as worthy of investment consideration.

Now, just over two weeks later, I have read many more similar reports touting the stock. No less than James Cramer of TheStreet.com, Barron's, Fortune, and more recently BusinessWeek wrote it up after the abrupt resignation of CEO Bob Nardelli. I am sure I have seen it discussed in other places too, but the point has been made. A crowd within the investment world has taken an interest in Home Depot stock. No such crowds have been reported in the actual stores.

Which is more important to the success of the company: more customers or more Wall Street players? In my own analysis I was looking at financial data and not trying to place any bets on when there might be a large positive swing in customer traffic. Are the investment world gurus (I'm not there yet) betting the stock rises because they are predicting more traffic, or is the stock going to rise in the short run even in the absence of customers simply because they say so? Short term the prognosticators do have an impact. Not only does the word on the street affect stock prices, but there are those that are leading global investment houses and placing real bets the stock will rise, so it must.

In the long run it will be customers and cash flow that will impact the stock price. And management decisions and the macro economy will impact customer flow. But, when I see a crowd I usually go the other way so I take pause to revisit my thinking on the subject of Home Depot. I am not fond of crowds but when they gather it is often worth knowing why. In this case I think my reasoning still has merit, so I will write this off to everyone jumping on the bandwagon. I do not claim to be the first one on the bandwagon, and do not know now when and if I will jump off. I will not be changing my seven picks during the year, so I guess I'm going along for the ride.

Check out my other posts for BloggingStocks here.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

Your first $10,000: Getting Started

This story is more about saving than investing. If your net worth is less than $10,000, you need to save, save and save some more! Future articles will address larger sums.

I have been asked many times in person and in the comments section about how to get started as an investor. Since it is essential to have something to invest besides your time, two things above all are required: Educate yourself, and be thrifty in your spending habits.

Most people reading the AOL Money & Finance section probably have ten grand to invest. If you do not currently have $10,000 to invest you are in trouble and there is no time to waste.

First: Reduce spending on extras, even extras you think you need to live.

Continue reading Your first $10,000: Getting Started

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Last updated: November 11, 2009: 09:41 AM

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