Investors may be bemoaning Harley-Davidson Inc.'s (NYSE: HOG) less-than-rocking earnings report this week, but there are reasons to still cheer the venerable motorcycle maker, whose stock is up 65 percent this year despite lower sales and tumbling profits. Shares rose more than 1 percent in Friday afternoon trading to more than $28 each.

On Thursday, Harley-Davidson said it earned $26.5 million, or 11 cents a share, in the third quarter, down from $166.5 million, or 71 cents a share, a year ago. Third-quarter sales dropped 21 percent to $1.12 billion, but a 21.3 percent drop in worldwide retail deliveries was far better than in the previous quarter, when sales slipped 30 percent worldwide and 35 percent in the U.S.

Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) did not have a great third quarter. If you check out the motorcycle-maker's press release, you'll see that management puts all the bad data right in the lead paragraph, with no spin whatsoever. Revenues: down almost 8% to $1.4 billion. Net income on a dollar basis: down 37% to about $167 million. The bottom line on a diluted per-share basis: down close to 34%, coming in at $0.71. Down, down, down.

And is it surprising? No. Consumers aren't really looking for that second chopper these days, I don't think. Although Harley-Davidson is built to leverage the midlife crisis that many men go through when they reach middle age, I doubt that the crisis many middle-aged men are going through currently is purely life-related. I'd be willing to bet it is a crisis based on a hellishly large loss of confidence in the security of their golden years fueled by the declining total value of their retirement accounts. In a world where companies like Ford (NYSE: F) and General Motors (NYSE: GM) are having a hard time moving inventory, you can bet that it's not a walk in the park for a manufacturer of motorcycles.

I've never used a motorcycle before in my life and don't know much about the vehicles, but I recognize that Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE: HOG) is an American icon whose product represents an aspirational brand. Even so, the company and its stock finds itself on hard times. The company's latest earnings report is reflective of the current economic malaise.

The first paragraph of the Q2 release tells me almost all I need to know. Revenues declined almost 3% to $1.57 billion. Net profit on a dollar basis dropped sharply by 23%, coming in at $222.8 million. Diluted earnings per share decreased by nearly 17% to $0.95. These numbers are not good. Also, in terms of cash flow, cash was used to fund operations for the first six months of the fiscal year as opposed to being generated. Yet another negative.

As I write this, Harley-Davidson's stock is up well over 7%. Am I impressed? Not enough to buy. Undoubtedly some of this rise can be attributed to the retreat in oil futures. But do I believe the economy will now be nice to Harley-Davidson? Not yet. The company, like General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) and Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F), will still have a rough time selling things that require fuel to run. According to this article, Harley-Davidson did better than expected, but that's little comfort to me. You can make an argument that the stock is cheap, but at the very least, anyone interested in buying it (again, I'm not) better wait till the euphoric rally of the day has faded.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

When last I looked at Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) in 2007 the stock was trading a lot higher. I argued at the time that there was value in this quality company and investors should take a look. Others liked the company, but wisely said there was plenty of time to wait because profits would be coming down with the slowing economy.

Some commented that HOG was over-priced in the high $40's even though it had come down from it's 52-week high of $66 per share. It was trading at a sizable 26% discount when I posted Chasing Value: Harley-Davidson (HOG) profits down 15% -- beats Wall St. last November at $48.95. Having closed yesterday at $39.39 it is now down over 40%.

Many of the brightest minds in my circles feel the economy will not pick up significantly for another 18 months and that we will have fits and starts in between then and now. There does not appear to be any urgency to acquiring stocks that will be dependent on economic recovery to turn for the better. However, HOG might be one to dollar cost average into over time if you believe it will not turn into General Motors or fade like Levi Strauss.

It is currently paying over a 3% dividend yield and unlike other companies Harley has been raising it recently, not lowering it. The P/E ratio of 10 which is projected to hold going forward, the ROE over 36 which is substantial and the ROIC over 20 are more than respectable.

I have not heard even a whisper doubting its superior quality of management and they seem to have put any labor issues to rest as well. I thought there was value in HOG a few months ago so I have to believe the story is even better today with international markets growing and all types of motorcycles being considered for those trying to stretch their gas dollars.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of HOG.

Yesterday I posted Chasing Value: Harley-Davidson (HOG) looking on down the road and actually bought a few shares. Late in the day I received a comment from one of our frequent readers whose opinions I have grown to respect, although he can be a little harsh at times. This reader raised some interesting points I thought worth some consideration. He wrote:

• "I don't like the stock. I see it as a luxury item for aging Baby Boomers. The ones who always wanted one, (or who) already own one. The younger generations aren't interested. I also think you're making a classic mistake when you speculate by saying "if it returns to its former level within the next few years."

He is correct that there is no assurance a stock will return to past glory. It is entirely possible that a company may fade away, just like Levi Strauss did when competitors stormed its castle from all sides with cheaper products, fancier products, variations on a theme and jeans made by other strong brands that extended their product lines into Levi's historic stronghold.

Similar things are happening now to Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) as Honda Motors, Yamaha, Kowasaki and Suzuki take on "style and look" of the classic American "HOG" ride. They do it cheaper, with less effort and even borrow American icons like eagles and flags to promote their machines. They also offer a smoother ride in many cases, as Harley clings to the past and continues producing motorcycles with what it calls "edgy" (read "rough") rides. It is also true that younger motorcycle enthusiasts do not appreciate the Harley mystique in the same way as Baby Boomers have.

Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) announced today that August sales sucked the tailpipe, and the rest of the year looks similarly grim. Third quarter shipments will fall several thousand units short of expectations, and it projects 2007 total shipments to finish at 328-332,000, down over 10,000 units over 2006. It's new projection for 2007 EPS is $3.69-$3.77, down from $3.93 in 2006.

The market reacted sharply to the news and the stock is down almost 9% in early trading. Since April, the stock has dropped from almost $66 a share to under $50.

The company points to dropping demand and a promotion-heavy July to explain the shortfall. I think Harley-Davidson is caught in a particularly awkward spot in this economy. As the number of Harleys on the road grew, the resale price has fallen, which creates more of a barrier for riders interested in trading up. About 35% of purchases financed by Harley-Davidson Financial Services were subprime, and the troubles in this market are bound to be reflected in sales declines, much as they have in the auto sector. Growing unemployment figures could also have an impact on sales.

The company entered 2007 with an overabundance of inventory in dealerships, and the July incentives used to clear out these models would have made 2008 models seem more expensive by comparison.

The company further cautioned that 2008 could be another slow year for bike sales, projecting moderate revenue growth and EPS up 4-7%.

I'd keep an eye on international growth, to see if the company can make enough inroads in foreign markets to absorb some of the excess capacity. Domestically, Harley-Davidson looks to be running into some rough road ahead.

[Photo SunFlowery]

Grant Case, a student at Indiana U.'s Kelly School of Business, posted a wonderfully detailed study yesterday of Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) that suggests the manufacturer is hip-deep in unsold bikes. According to the numbers posted on the SeekingAlpha web site, by the end of 4th quarter 2006 over 40,000 more bikes sat on showroom floors than the same quarter in 2004. He estimates this dealer build contributed around $1.00 to HOG's EPS over the past two years.

Harley's first quarter figures are bound to be a bit screwy due to the strike that they recently resolved, and Case speculates that the company might take this opportunity to bury thieir inventory problem in an overall poor quarterly report. Coupled with the exposure of HDFS's bike financing in the credit crunch that Michael Rainey blogged about here recently, the earnings announcement on April 19th should be more interesting than most.

Certainly having a jammed showroom when the spring weather first hits is a dealer's dream, but entering next winter with cobwebs on the apehangers is a dismal prospect. Stockholders should be crossing their fingers for some good riding weather, and soon.

Michael Fowlkes blogged earlier about the dip in Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) stock prices. Those who plan on holding this stock for the long run might want to look carefully at the product and its market demographic.

In the short run, the brand should play strongly to boomers retiring with a wad of discretionary income and a taste for moderate adventure. They have the cash to pay for the top-line models such as the Road King, along with the (very pricey) Regalia.

For the following generation, however, H/D offers a weak lineup. Younger, more sport-oriented riders find nothing in the Harley dealership to compete with the race-tested (and promoted) sport bikes from Honda, Yamaha, Kawasaki and Suzuki. The Buell brand they have attempted to grow in this market sector has found no traction and remains a non-player. And the Chinese are ready to enter the market and beat the brains out of anyone competing strictly on price.

Harley-Davidson Inc. (NYSE: HOG) recently revised downward its 1Q 2007 and FY 2007 guidance due to a nearly month-long strike at its York, PA manufacturing plant. The strike was finally settled in late February but the damage has already been done. Instead of shipping 82,000-84,000 motorcycles as had been planned prior to the strike, Harley will ship 64,000-66,000 motorcycles, a loss in production of 18,000 units. That's a lot of disappointed HOG loyalists who will have to spend more time on the waiting list for a bike. Although Harley will increase production in coming months, its still predicts a shortfall of 14,000 units for FY 2007.

As a result of the loss in production, Harley management forecast only moderate growth, lower margins and 4-6% EPS. Harley predicts a return to double-digit EPS growth rate by 2008. Due to the recent labor troubles, the stock has taken a beating. Prior to the strike, the stock traded right around $75 per share. Harley-Davidson stock closed at $63.54, up $.24 on March, down almost 15% since the beginning of the year.