Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) is probably the second most disappointing oil/oil services play in this market, after always-tough-sledding-ahead Frontline Ltd. (FRO). While some might think this is a good time to get out, I believe that since this is the oil sector, patience will rule the day (for now). Murphy, which I first wrote about on April 29, 2009 at a price of $47.80, is likely to continue its drive higher.

Refiner (85% of revenue) Murphy is well-positioned to capitalize on the rebound in U.S. gasoline sales as U.S. job growth finally resumes. The problem is, few institutions are biting at Murphy's projected $4.77 FY2010 EPS. And that leads to one of two conclusions: 1) MUR is undervalued or 2) institutions know something that typical investors don't, hence the consternation about this stock.

While other earnings may have disappointed last week, the news was good for oil giant ConocoPhilips (NYSE: COP). In what some took as a good sign for big oil, the Houston-based company reported that third quarter net income surged 41% year over year to $3.39 per share, and that revenue also surged 52% to $70 billion. We'll see whether the good news extends to other petroleum giants scheduled to report quarterly results this week.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are looking for BP (NYSE: BP) profits to have grown 43.2% in the most recent quarter to $2.34 per share on revenue of $109.7 billion, and Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) to post earnings up 39.4% to $3.25 per share on revenue of $86.8 billion. Marathon Oil Corp. (NYSE: MRO), ExxonMobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), and Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) likewise are expected to report higher net income of $2.33 per share (sales of $23.4 billion), $2.40 per share (sales of $131.4 billion), and $2.65 per share, respectively. Even Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) is expected to post earnings slightly higher to $1.46 per share (sales of $36.4 billion), despite the effects of Hurricane Ike. Among these companies, only BP and Valero beat earnings expectations in the previous quarter. Not surprisingly, analysts on average recommend buying all except Valero, and shares of all of these companies have recently hit 52-week lows.

Murphy Oil (NYSE: MUR), a global oil and gas exploration and production company with refining and marketing operations, will report Q4 EPS on January 31. MUR overall option implied volatility of 40 is above its 26-week average of 33 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Ultra Petroleum (NYSE: UPL) is an independent, exploration and production company with gas operations focused in the Green River Basin of southwest Wyoming. Natural Gas Futures are down 2.35% to 7.805 according to Bloomberg. UPL overall option implied volatility of 39 is above its 26-week average of 35 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risk.

Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Eli Lilly (LLY) and L-3 Communications (LLL) were the only notable downgrades today:

• HSBC downgraded Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE:LLY) to Neutral from Overweight.
• Following the loss of the Army Linguist contract, Credit Suisse downgraded L-3 Communications Hldgs Inc. (NYSE:LLL) to Neutral from Outperform with an $83 target.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Cooper Companies Inc. (NYSE:COO) was downgraded to Underweight from Neutral, with a $42 target at Prudential; they believe another reduction in 2007 guidance is likely and, additionally, the company is likely to lose additional market share in the Toric market.
• Credit Suisse, seeing potential risk to production targets at Murphy Oil Corp. (NYSE:MUR), downgraded the company to Underperform from Neutral.
• RBC Capital Markets downgraded Sovereign Bancorp Inc. (NYSE:SOV) to Underperform from Sector Perform based on valuation.

Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).