On Monday, the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) announced that it believes the recession is over, but many of the economists it surveyed don't believe there will be a "meaningful improvement in jobs, credit or housing for months to come."

NABE asked a group of 43 top economists if they believe the U.S. economy has pulled out of the recession. Of those responding, 81% believe the recovery has started recovering, and 9% (four of those responding) thinking we are still in a recession. Four others were unsure.

It appears that a majority of economists believe that the current recession in the United States is going to end this year. The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) will release today a survey that reflects this belief and is in line with a forecast from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and others.

According to the survey, 74% of the forecasters believe the recession will end in the third quarter, with 19% pegging the fourth quarter as the final quarter for the recession. The remaining 7% believe the first quarter of 2010 will be the recession's swan song.

Even if the national headlines weren't already providing enough focus on the economy, plenty of economic data is due out as the month and the quarter wind down. U.S. economic data scheduled to be released this week include:

• Personal income (Aug. 2008): Monday 8:30 AM
• Consumer confidence index (Sept, 2008): Tuesday 10:00 AM
• Challenger job cut announcement (Sept, 2008): Wednesday 7:30 AM
• ISM manufacturing survey (Sept. 2008): Wednesday 10:00 AM
• Construction spending (Aug. 2008): Wednesday 10:00 AM
• New motor vehicle sales (Sept. 2008): Wednesday 4:00 PM
• Monster employment index (Sept. 2008): Thursday 6:00 AM
• Factory orders (Aug. 2008): Thursday 10:00 AM
• Employment situation (Sept. 2008): Friday 8:30 AM
• ISM nonmanufacturing survey (Sept. 2008): Friday 10:00 AM

Other economic events scheduled for this week include:

• Fed's Hoenig speaks on "The Economy and Monetary Policy": Monday 9:45 PM
• Fed's Lockhart speaks on the economic outlook: Tuesday 1:00 PM
• Ford Motor Co. September 2008 Sales Conference Call: Wednesday 1:00 PM
• AMETEK Inc. at Oppenheimer Industrials Conference: Thursday 8:00 AM
• DuPont at Citigroup Ethanol on the Cob Conference: Thursday 12:50 PM
• Fed's Evans speaks at Agricultural Markets and Food Price Inflation conference: Thursday 1:00 PM
• Fed's Bullard speaks at Indiana University Department of Economics: Thursday 7:00 PM
• Fed's Hoenig speaks on "The Economy and Monetary Policy": Thursday 9:45 PM
• National Association for Business Economics 50th Annual Meeting to address Future Economic Challenges: Friday 9:00 PM

I don't know why it took so long for economists to admit the current housing and credit mess will impact the economy, but the latest report from the National Association for Business Economists (NABE) expects GDP to expand just 1.5% from October through December. That's less than half the 3.9% we saw in the period of July through September.

Historically, a housing slowdown always becomes a drag on the economy, as people spend less on things related to buying or fixing up a new house. On top of a real estate slowdown we also have a credit mess that's essentially frozen much of the type of lending that fueled the housing bubble that just burst. People can no longer use their homes as piggy banks that can be tapped for whatever they want to buy.

For all of this year economists expected the economy to grow by 2.1%. That would be the weakest economic growth since 2002 when the economy grew by just 1.6% as we headed out of our last recession. NABE also lowered its growth prediction for next year to 2.5% from 2.8%, and that may even be too optimistic unless something is done to get the housing market back on track. As long as foreclosures keep rising and people are unable to sell their homes or refinance unaffordable mortgages, you won't see a turnaround in this economy.