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Intel margin warning hits flash memory stocks

Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) came out Monday night and warned of lower margins, and while the stock was down in after-hours trading, one might actually make the argument that this might not be such bad news for its core operations. It's just hard to be too much like Dr. Pangloss in what looks, feels, and even smells more and more like a bear market each week. The culprit is listed as "lower than expected NAND flash memory chip prices." So Intel said it is now looking for 54% margins, plus or minus 1%. Its previous guidance was 56%, plus or minus 1%. What is at least a bit of relief here is that Intel said that all other expectations are consistent with the prior guidance given with its last outlook.

I would note that Intel had recently been downgraded at Goldman Sachs and at AmTech. Arguably, this is the second warning if you count last quarter. Its 2% drop is fairly appropriate as that is basically how much the stock is down on the news. Intel closed up 0.2% Monday at $20.01, but it was now seeing shares trade down 2.5% at $19.51 in after-hours evening trades.

If you take this at face value, Intel at least has a robust processor business, or at least it has the best processors in the industry. This news is taking a toll on other semiconductor stocks as well, but as the news bit is specific to NAND flash memory chips, it is hitting those flash memory stocks the worst of the others.

Micron Tech (NYSE: MU) is one that won't be liking this as its turnaround seems to be in jeopardy. This may at least make the company pursue more active issues like divesting some assets. SanDisk Corp. (NASDAQ: SNDK) is perhaps the pure-play for flash memory stocks, and its shares were actually down almost 3.5% at $22.25 in after-hours trading. That was after already hitting a new 52-week low at the close of $23.05 as its trading range over the last year was $23.40 to $59.75. Spansion Inc. (NASDAQ: SPSN) is another go-to stock in flash memory. Its shares were down almost 3% in after-hours trading at $2.82 after having an almost 6% gain today. Unfortunately, it has had a poor year with its 52-week trading being $2.69 to $12.83.

iPod Nanos to get size boost this fall?

Macrumors is posting a story that links the rumor that Apple has been stocking up on NAND flash memory for iPods with a prediction that the iPod Nano will soon be reaching holding capacities of 12 gigabytes.

The iPod Nano did not have as big a launch as Apple had hoped, but the Nano is still an important part of the iPod brand. Apple is hoping to get the right price/point ratio for them to take off.

Positioning itself to purchase a significant portion of the NAND flash memory available could allow a bulk purchase that allows Apple to drop the price and raise capacity of the Nano. That would be an attractive combination. And if it comes right before back to school season it may prove a profitable one.

[Disclosure: I own Apple stock at the date of this post]

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Last updated: May 27, 2012: 06:13 AM

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