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Should We Be Wary of Tech Stocks?

The past year was spectacular for tech stocks. But this is a new year. Are we going to see the same dynamics? The same gains? Those are the questions analysts are pondering.

First off we have the technicians. They use indexes, charts, graphs and other technical tools to make their calls on the market. One favorite index is the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, dubbed SOX. It often is a leading indicator for where tech stocks are headed. For the past month, the index has stayed near the 420 level. That has become the overhead resistance point. Technicians argue that the 420 to 422 level must be breached and the market hold above that level for the rally to continue. Otherwise we could see a pull back.

Continue reading Should We Be Wary of Tech Stocks?

Options Update: Human Genome November volatility at 248 into data

Human Genome (NASDAQ: HGSI) closed at $19.97. HGSI's Benlysta, a lupus treatment, is expected to have phase 3 data released on November 2. HGSI November option implied volatility is at 249, December is at 170, January is at 143 and April is at 112, according to Track Data, suggesting large movement.

NASDAQ 100 (NASDAQ: QQQQ) overall implied volatility at 24; 26-week average is 28.

Semiconductor Holders Trust-SMH overall volatility at 29; 26-week average is 33.

Options Update: Index volatilities' near one year lows

NASDAQ 100 (NASDAQ - QQQQ)verall implied volatility at 26; 26-week average is 32

Semiconductor Holders Trust - SMH overall volatility at 30; 26-week average is 38

Russell 2000 - IWM overall implied volatility at 27; 26-week average is 39

Financial Select Sector - XLF overall volatility at 37; 26-week average is 58

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Options Update: Major Index volatility at low end of range

NASDAQ 100 (NASDAQ: QQQQ) overall implied volatility at 28; 26-week average is 35

Semiconductor Holders Trust (NYSE: SMH) overall volatility at 36; 26-week average is 43

Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM) overall implied volatility at 34; 26-week average is 44

Financial Select Sector (NYSE: XLF) overall volatility at 49; 26-week average is 65

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Options Update: Rosetta Stone volatility at 75 into first EPS report after IPO

Rosetta Stone Inc (NYSE: RST) was recently up 64 cents to $29.60. RST, a provider of technology based language learning solutions, is scheduled to report Q1 EPS after the market close today. RST June option implied volatility of 75 was above its two-week average of 68, according to Track Data, suggesting slightly larger price movement.

NASDAQ 100 (NASDAQ-QQQQ) overall implied volatility was at 31; 26-week average was 39.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Contrarian turns bullish on market 'gloom'

"Gloom is thick enough to cut with a knife," says market historian and seasonal timing expert Sy Harding, whose timing system has just triggered a new intermediate-term buy signal on stocks. Here, in his Street Smart Report, the contrarian explains why he believes we are now near a market low.

He also looks at four new ETF index positions he has established in his portfolio. "The slowdown continues. Foreclosures soar. Debt problems are spreading to corporate and credit card loans. The housing collapse continues. The problems are affecting employment.

"And of course the credit crunch continues. Gasoline hit a record high $3.26 a gallon last week. Consumer confidence, and corporate CEO confidence is at multi-year lows regarding the economy.

"The gloom and doom has spread from financial publications to local newspapers and magazines, now featuring stories of layoffs and local plant closings, local small businesses suffering, comparisons to previous bad times, even occasionally to the Great Depression.

"Is the gloom thick enough? Are other conditions in place indicating we are near a market low? Here's why we think so:

Continue reading Contrarian turns bullish on market 'gloom'

Options update 1-4-08: ConocoPhillips volatility flat as shares near record high

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) closed at $88.25 Thursday.

Crude oil futures are at $99.03 according to Bloomberg.

COP overall option implied volatility of 30 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional risks.

NASDAQ 100 QQQQ overall implied volatility at 28; 26-week average is 25

Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

The 52-week high club

Activision, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI): Revised it's outlook upward. Shares moved up to $27.98 from 52-week low of $16.05.

Hologic, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOLX): Company is to be added to the Nasdaq 100. Traded up to $69.75 from 52-week low of $45.88.

Archer Daniels Midland Company (NYSE: ADM): The company is still moving up on strength of legislation of new law to increase ethanol production. It hit $43.37 up from 52-week low of $30.20.

Tribune Company (NYSEL: TRB): Deal to take company private finally closes. Up to $34 from 52-week low of $22.78.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Second time around for the NDX-Nasdaq switch?

After a major run-up that began in earnest this past summer, the Nasdaq 100 index peaked relative to the Nasdaq Composite index about six weeks ago. The large cap-laden NDX then staged a short but sharp correction.

More recently, however, the ratio has bounced back and is once again nearing resistance at the October highs. The shares of larger companies have no doubt been boosted by stampeding institutions anxious to put money to work in what appears to be an early "Santa Claus" rally.

Still, given how circumstances panned out previously, it may be time to look for another pullback in the Nasdaq 100 in comparison to the broader technology-based index.

One way to play it (depending on risk tolerance): buy the Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index Tracking Stock ETF (NASDAQ: ONEQ) and sell (or sell short) the Powershares QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ: QQQQ).

Michael Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle.

Nasdaq weakness: A warning sign for emerging markets?

No small number of analysts have noted a rising correlation between some of the more speculative asset classes, including foreign currencies, gold, oil and other commodities, and certain sectors of the global equity markets.

As far as stocks go, however, one relationship may be worth paying special attention to. That is, the apparent link between the technology-laden Nasdaq-100 index -- which has an equivalent exchange-traded fund, the Powershares QQQ Trust ETF (AMEX: QQQQ) -- and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which also has an equivalent exchange-traded fund, the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (AMEX: EEM).

Continue reading Nasdaq weakness: A warning sign for emerging markets?

Option update: Pre-open Stock Option Index volatility measurements

Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX at 27.37; 10-day moving average is 24.62

Volatility Index NASDAQ 100-VXN at 29.94; 10-day moving average is 25.95

NASDAQ 100 (NASDAQ: QQQQ) overall option Implied Volatility at 26; 26-week average is 21

Semiconductor Holders Trust (AMEX: SMH) option implied Volatility 27; 26-week average is 23

IShares Russell 2000 (NYSE: IWM) option implied volatility at 30, 26-week average is 22

Amex Financial Select Sector (AMEX: XLF) implied volatility at 30; 26-week average is 22

ISE Sentiment Index-ISEE 90 new Calls purchased for every new Put on 9/10/07. ISEE 10-day moving average is 122. ISEE 50-day moving average is 123.

September front month Equity Options expire; 9/21/07

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-74.9212,454.83
NASDAQ-1.852,837.53
S&P 500-2.861,317.82

Last updated: May 27, 2012: 06:13 AM

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