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NBER: Recession Not Officially Over, Yet

One economic condition nearly every American can agree on -- as an everyday reality, or real-world feel: the recession is not over. In practical terms, with the U.S. unemployment rate at a totally unacceptable 9.7%, the recovery has not started.

Still, from a GDP standpoint, the economy is growing -- GDP has been positive for two quarters -- and many other economic fundamentals are signaling that the economic recovery probably started in July/August 2009.

Continue reading NBER: Recession Not Officially Over, Yet

10 craziest days on Wall Street in 2008: #5 It's official: U.S. economy enters recession ... in 2007

Dec. 1: Dow 8,149 (down 679 points); trading range, 703 points

Start spreadin' the news -- the U.S. economy entered a recession 12 months ago.

But this headline from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) combined with other weak economic data and more troubles in financials to drag down the Dow by nearly 700 points.

In fact, 498 of the S&P 500 stocks posted a decline during the session.

Every sector showed weakness, as a disappointing manufacturing survey sank to the worst level since 1982, and weighed on trading.

Financials took another severe beating as Oppenheimer uber-analyst Meredith Whitney opined that the credit card industry may cut credit lines by more than $2 trillion during the next 18 months.

Meanwhile, Fed Chief Ben Bernanke laid out additional policy actions that may be taken to boost the economy.

Greg Tucker is the executive editor of OptionsZone.com.

Leading U.S. economist: "The situation is very bad and getting worse"

Reuters reports that one of the U.S.'s leading economists, Harvard's Martin Feldstein gave a speech in Florida today in which he said that the U.S. faces a recession that could be "significantly more severe" than recent ones.

This is very bad news because Feldstein is the head of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) which is responsible for determining when recessions begin and end. Not only that, but he is a Republican whose editorials are frequently in the Wall Street Journal. So for Feldstein to make this claim, he must have very compelling and irrefutable evidence on which to base his prediction. Given his position in the firmament of economists, It would be incredibly irresponsible for him to be exaggerating for effect.

Here are some of the scare quotes:

  • "The situation is very bad, the situation is getting worse, and the risks are that it could get very bad."
  • "There's no doubt that this year and next year are going to be very difficult years."

Continue reading Leading U.S. economist: "The situation is very bad and getting worse"

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Last updated: February 10, 2012: 11:45 PM

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