TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says beyond the long tradition, it's what we need now as a nation.
How did "bailout" become such a curse? The U.S. has a long history of bailouts, the big ones being most successful. The U.S. government saved Lockheed (NYSE: LMT) (Cramer's Take) in 1974 -- we need all the competition in military procurement we can get, considering how precious little of it there is -- so it's hard to judge that one a loser. The feds profited from the Chrysler bailout five years later .Not just profited, but had a huge success. The Mexican bailout in the 1990s saved that country's financials and gave the U.S. a tidy profit. The Resolution Trust bailout worked perfectly in restoring the banking system at a small cost, in retrospect, to the chaos we could have had.
Yet here's JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) (Cramer's Take) taking on a lot of risk, in retrospect, given the junk nature of Bear's portfolio, and there's a tremendous amount of hand-wringing about it?
I say get used to it. General Motors (NYSE: GM) (Cramer's Take) and Ford (NYSE: F) (Cramer's Take) can't cut their way out of their jam, not with the F Series down 40% and GM still paying more for its labor force than it thought would have to. Both have strong, salvageable franchises, but they need capital, a la Chrysler in 1979. I think the feds should give it to them with contingencies that allow the U.S. to profit from any rebound.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the acquired Bear Stearns portfolio is worth even less than he thought.
How bad was that Bear Stearns portfolio? I am beginning to believe that JPMorgan's (NYSE: JPM) (Cramer's Take) buy of Bear is looking like a big mistake. It can only be justified by what might have been an even bigger problem for JPM -- the collapse of the trades that Bear made, which were being processed by JPM's clearing.
We are now beginning to get a real sense of the worthlessness of the mortgage portfolios. Not that we got any help from the SEC, which has taken a "we don't care what's in the mortgages as long as you tell us you have mortgages" attitude. That's been worthless for investors, and maybe even for JPMorgan.
The losses now exceed $400 billion, according to my modeling (if you simply assumed that 50% of the exotic mortgages that were issued from 2005 to 2007 eventually went into default). That's amazing, but it looks like I dramatically underestimated the losses. UNDERESTIMATED!
The most egregious issuers of these exotic mortgages were Bear, Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) (Cramer's Take) and Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) (Cramer's Take). I believe that JPM has taken in a huge number of uninsurable, non-hedgeable mortgage instruments that are a pure write-off. And that means they are probably underwater on everything they took in.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says that rather than merging, these banks will have to raise money through dilutive offerings.
The big difference between 1990s bank implosion and this one is that nobody at other banks sees any value in owning the ones that are faltering.
Key (NYSE: KEY) (Cramer's Take) is the latest example. Key's everywhere, it is grandfathered to be in every state. You would think there was some bank out there that would want it. Nope. No one. So they have to do this down round that destroys the common. Nobody wants Sovereign (NYSE: SOV) (Cramer's Take) either. Or Nat City (NYSE: NCC) (Cramer's Take). Or Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) (Cramer's Take). The latter's really interesting now that Hudson City (NYSE: HCBK) (Cramer's Take) has passed it in market size because it says that all of those branches and all of that deposit base just doesn't mean anything. Or worse, the losses are so bad that unless the Fed takes the losses and puts them on its balance sheet, there can be no consolidation.
Yet consolidation is the only way to go. Now, we are much more laissez-faire then we were in 1990. The administration then felt engaged to move quickly to set up mergers instead of the charade of down rounds. I call them charades because none of them yet has produced a return for anyone who has put the money up.
After hitting a one-year high of $54.54 last June, the stock has hit a new one-year today. This morning, WB opened at $21.18. So far today the stock has hit a low of $20.03 and a high of $21.21. As of 12:20, WB is trading at $20.21, down 1.39 (-6.4%). The chart for WB looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a negative 2 STARS (out of 5) sell rating.
Some analysts thought that once banks moved though their bad bet on subprime paper, they might start to see improvements in their earnings. Not so fast. Plain old loans for houses and condos are going bad so fast that lenders are about to get hit again on the bottom line.
The Wall Street Journalpoints out in one of it top stories that "Federal regulators warned Thursday that banking-industry turmoil would continue as financial institutions come to terms with piles of bad loans they made to finance the construction of homes and condominiums."
Many investors may say that the information is obvious, and that it was expected that falling real-estate prices would hurt banks. But the real victims may be bank shareholders. As large lenders take more losses on their portfolios, they will have to raise more capital and further dilute shareholders. Banking stocks which are down two-thirds from their highs could drop even further.
Now that banks are selling off these large loans, the quarterly reports for companies like Wachovia (NYSE:WB) and Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) are about to get hammered again. Wachovia trades at below $22, down from a 52-week high of more than $54. Wells Fargo has fallen from a 52-week high of almost $38 to $27. Regional banks like National City (NYSE:NCC) have had it worse. It shares have fallen from a one-year high of $34.62 to $5.25.
Selling in those stocks in not over. Not even close.
The banking unit of National City Corporation (NYSE: NCC) recently entered into a "memorandum of understanding" with federal regulators, the Wall Street Journal reported. The banking unit has bad loans, and the agreement basically means that the bank is on probation, as the government pressures financial institutions.
The Wall Street Journal also reported that Justice Department criminal prosecutors and its U.S. attorney's office in Brooklyn, NY are investigating American International Group Inc (NYSE: AIG) to see if they overstated the value of contracts tied to subprime mortgages.
OTHER PAPERS:
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE: LEH) is thinking of releasing its Q2 results a week earlier than planned, and announcing a capital raising plan at the same time, according to the New York Post, in order to reduce negative speculation about its future.
The level of bad loans at US banks is getting worse and not better. According to the FT, "Sheila Bair, chairwoman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, said it was likely loan-loss provisions and bank failures would rise in coming quarters as the fallout from market turmoil hits the real economy."
Three banks have failed this year and the FDIC says the number of "problem" banks sits at 90.
All of this may be tough on regulators who may have to bail banks out, but it could be tougher on shareholders who have stock in mid-sized and regional banks. NCC (NYSE:NCC) has already had to raise $7 billion. Its shares are down to $5.68 from a 52-week high of $35.83. Other banks in the same category, such as Fifth Third (NASDAQ:FITB) and KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY), have lost about half their price compared to 52-week highs.
The news from the FDIC shows that investing in financial firms remains tricky and dangerous. It is not for the faint of heart.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Host Hotels, Packeteer and France Telecom were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Deutsche Bank downgraded shares of Host Hotels (NYSE: HST) to Hold from Buy and lowered their target to $19 from $22.50 on a lack of near-term catalysts and industry headwinds. Note the firm also downgraded Sunstone Hotel Investors (NYSE: SHO), Strategic Hotels (NYSE: BEE) and DiamondRock Hospitality (NYSE: DRH) to Hold from Buy.
Merriman downgraded shares of Packeteer (NASDAQ: PKTR) to Neutral from Buy following the acquisition bid by Blue Coat Systems (NASDAQ: BCSI) as they are not expecting additional suitors to emerge.
ABN Amro cut France Telecom (NYSE: FTE) to Hold from Buy as they see increased risk from the company's acquisitions strategy.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Keefe Bruyette downgraded Capitol Federal (NASDAQ: CFFN) to Underperform from Market Perform.
Omnicell (NASDAQ: OMCL) was lowered to Neutral from Strong Buy at Broadpoint.
National City (NYSE: NCC) was downgraded at Bear to Underperform from Outperform.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: National City, Syntax Brillian and Medco Health were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of National City (NYSE: NCC) to Buy from Sell on valuation as they believe their $9.00 target is in-line with the company's franchise value.
Baird upgraded Syntax Brillian (NASDAQ: BRLC) to Outperform from Neutral based on recently announced strategic initiatives and valuation.
Jefferies upgraded shares of Medco Health (NYSE: MHS) to Buy from Hold as they believe the company's renewed PBM contract with United Healthcare (NYSE: UNH) removes a major overhang.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Friedman Billings raised Downey Financial (NYSE: DSL) to Market Perform from Underperform.
Volterra (VNASDAQ: LTR) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Piper.
Alliance Data (NYSE: ADS) was raised at JP Morgan to Overweight from Neutral.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says this lender gave money to anyone with a pulse, and the shareholders are left holding the bag.
For pure laughs, go read the National City (NYSE: NCC) (Cramer's Take) conference call yesterday, the one where they destroyed what was remaining of their common shareholder base with the partial takeunder by Corsair, an unknown private-equity fund that surfaced to inject $7 billion to save the bank.
But this Nat City takes the cake. They have to be the most stupid and least rigorous lender since the S&L crisis. They have $10 billion in home equity loans that have got to be among the worst ever issued. I swear, I bet that many of these are going to turn out to be out-and-out fraud by the borrowers. Miraculously, Nat City found an even more stupid soul, Merrill's (NYSE: MER) (Cramer's Take) Stan O'Neal, to sell its main originator of this junk to, something that brought O'Neal down and almost brought Merrill down. Some would say that the latter is still in question. I have no idea what would have happened to NCC if they hadn't sold it before the height of the fraud, the first quarter of 2007.
Today was an odd day, with technology stocks taking the trump card and dominating most earnings reports. The NASDAQ was the strong index today, although the DJIA and the S&P tried unsuccessfully to erase most of their losses toward the closing bell today. With oil rising every day, you'd think at some point it would affect things. Not yet. Here are the unofficial closing bell prices for major US index levels:
Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMLN) reported first quarter losses of $68.8 million, or $0.51 EPS, wider than the $49.4 million in the first quarter of 2007. Losses are credited to a drop in sales in diabetes treatment, Byetta, a drug they co-market with Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY), and increased expenses. Analysts estimated losses of $0.47 EPS. The 52-week range is $23.75 to $53.25. Shares were down over 10% at $28.13 in the final minutes of trading today.
After Citigroup (NYSE: C) and Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) reported earnings, there was at least some hope that the worst was behind the banking and brokerage industries. But that may not be true. Over the weekend Royal Bank of Scotland (NYSE: RBS) said it might have to raise $12 billion. Then there is today's news from big Midwestern bank National City Corp. (NYSE: NCC).
NCC will probably announce that it has raised over $6 billion. According to The Wall Street Journal, "the Cleveland-based regional bank was hammering out final terms of the transaction with a group of investors led by Corsair Capital LLC, a New York private-equity group."
Current NCC stockholders will be beaten to death. The new capital will come in at $5 a share. The stock trades at over $8 now. NCC's 52-week high is over $38.
The news is another example of how management at banks doomed their shareholders. Financial companies took on huge amounts of subprime-backed paper. The investments looked safe, but, on closer examination, they carried great risks if the housing market began to falter. The underlying assumption was that home prices would move up forever and that mortgages had been granted to consumers at reasonable rates. Both of those assumptions were wrong.
When something looks too good to be true, it usually is.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
National City Corp. (NYSE: NCC) is recently trading at $7.50 in pre-open trading, below its close of $8.33. The Wall Street Journal reported that NCC is close to a $6 billion cash infusion from private equity. Sandler O'Neill says while the potential deal announcement is not surprising, "the size and the dilution still seems astonishing."
NCC May option implied volatility of 140 is above its 26-week average of 66 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.
Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.
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National City Corp.
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