The other shoe hit the fan Wednesday when Newcastle Investments (NCT), one of my up-and-down picks for the year announced the pricing for a 15 million common share stock offering -- six bucks! -- considerably lower than the 52-week high of $8.85 the stock reached last month.

NCT closed Wednesday March 23 at $6.02.

In making this move, management seeks to raise $85.6million for future investments and operations. This is the management that guided the company back from the grave. I know, since I bought in at 60 cents. But with 62 million shares outstanding, the 25% dilution is a huge move. What are they thinking?

This morning before the market opened, Newcastle Investments (NCT), one of my 2011 stock picks (see Chasing Value: 2011 Picks Dust the S&P) reported earnings that stomped all over analysts estimates. The company reported that in the fourth quarter of 2010, income applicable to common stockholders ("GAAP income") was $197 million, or $3.18 per diluted share, compared to $17 million, or $0.31 per diluted share, in the fourth quarter of 2009.

For the full year 2010, GAAP income was $657 million, or $10.96 per diluted share, compared to a loss applicable to common stockholders ("GAAP loss") of $223 million, or $4.23 per diluted share, in 2009.

On Friday I had the opportunity to present an investment strategy I developed over the past few years to a major asset manager interested in learning the intricacies. Among the questions he asked, one that comes up often, is how do I go about finding particular stocks that I think might be of value.

The answer of course is not so simple, because like any other type of discovery they come about in a variety of ways. Sometimes it begins with a story, as it did in December 2008 when I included EZCorp (EZPW) among my 2009 stock picks (and 2010 and 2011). In this case I was pondering what was going to be safe, and perhaps even in growing demand during a year of financial turmoil and high unemployment. The answer was pawn shops and cash-advance stores.

I have already gone on record this year saying that financial companies and insurance stocks are going to continue to rebound. In my previous two posts Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 5 of 11 and Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 6, 7, 8, 9, I included several financial institutions. Today I add an insurance company.

The industry got whacked hard for many reasons. For one, it makes a significant amount of profit by investing its float, and like every other investor, the industry lost a pile of money in the financial crisis. It was embroiled more directly than some industries, as several insurers are affiliated with banks. Finally the housing crisis meant disruption to payment streams by homeowners who were delinquent on more than their mortgages.

This is the fifth year that I am posting my stock picks for the year. There is a lot of foolishness in doing so because each year that I have made such suggestions, including 2009 when I owned all of the picks, it is assumed that I would hold all of the positions without responding to market conditions, or changes in the specific company. No adding to, or cutting a position. This is not the real world.

It is not possible for everything to remain static. For example, you might find that you hold a stock that made a great run through three quarters, beyond your wildest expectations, and decide it has passed a point where the metrics cannot support anything close to the price. Under normal circumstances you might sell it, except you cannot. By the end of the year the profit you might have realized fades away and you end up reporting on something that is not a true measure of your objective strategy. Nevertheless, once again I will stick with this approach because this seems to be how its done in every publication's annual picks. This year there are eleven.

Could a stock that you made 1,100% on still have room to run? Yes, it is possible. In particular if it had a near death experience as a penny stock for a while.

That is the case with Newcastle Investments (NCT), the CMBS lender and real estate investment company that reached a recent high of $7.10 and has settled back down, most recently hovering between $6.70 to $7.00. It closed Thursday December 23 at $6.71.

Yesterday my 2009 portfolio closed up 201% for the year. It has been an interesting journey, and while it is rather self congratulatory to discuss it, there are lessons to be learned.

Before I review some of the reasons I was able to do this I want to make it clear that I do not think this can be easily repeated; I look at the portfolio every day thinking this is too good to be true, and we all know what that usually means.

Trillions of dollars have been introduced into the world economy since last July, when I thought it would be interesting to jump in and pick stocks prior to the carnage in the financial sector taking complete hold.

For the past eight months our government has been taking over financial institutions, absorbing debt, lowering interest rates, nationalizing some private companies, investing in others, and rebating taxes through stimulus packages to increase liquidity and spending. The Federal Reserve has essentially dropped the interest to zero.

The government was the last to announce that we are in a recession. Well, duh! However, recession or not the world is still open for business although less of it. Gold is down 30% from it's highs and oil having totally collapsed from $147 a barrel at the time of the original story to the low $30's now.

The original story was Serious Money: Tempting fate with 10 financials -- buying into a pool of financial stocks at a time when these stocks went unloved by all.