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CSX experiences a drop in Q3 income, but are better times ahead?

CSX (NYSE: CSX), a railway entity similar to companies such as Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. (NYSE: BNI), Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE: NSC), and Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP), saw a nice bid during Tuesday's after-hours session. The market enjoyed CSX's Q3 earnings report so much it sent shares of the company higher by 2.6%.

What was so good about the data? According to TheStreet.com, CSX made 74 cents per share from continuing operations. The analyst community was counting on 71 cents per share. Perhaps more importantly, management seemed pretty upbeat on the state of the economy. Like a lot of other pundits, CEO Michael Ward thinks that the recession will eventually start to wane, and that we may have already experienced the bottom of the cycle.

Continue reading CSX experiences a drop in Q3 income, but are better times ahead?

Cramer on BloggingStocks: You can't afford to be certain

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says if you wait for market conditions to reach perfection, you'll be waiting a long time.

You know what? I am going to wait until I am sure housing has turned before I buy the homebuilders like Lennar (NYSE: LEN) (Cramer's Take) and Pulte (NYSE: PHM) (Cramer's Take). I am going to wait until the foreclosures peak before I buy Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) (Cramer's Take).

I am going to wait until unemployment goes down before I buy 3M (NYSE: MMM) (Cramer's Take) and Disney (NYSE: DIS) (Cramer's Take) and IBM (NYSE: IBM) (Cramer's Take) and Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) (Cramer's Take).

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: You can't afford to be certain

CSX: Buy now, or wait for a better price?

CSX (NYSE: CSX), a railway company whose peers include Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI), Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP) and Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE: NSC), reported earnings for the second quarter on Monday after the bell. Net sales declined 25%, and earnings from continuing operations declined 24% to 72 cents per share.

Declines are never nice, but for a company like CSX, it's only to be expected. The recession continues to have an impact on operations. Management said that volumes decreased; it also mentioned how CSX is doing its best to run as efficiently as possible to combat the dropping top line. Maybe it's working out, because according to Reuters, the company beat Wall Street estimates by 10 cents.

Continue reading CSX: Buy now, or wait for a better price?

Chasing Value: Watch BNI -- the heck with Citigroup

Last year most analysts proclaimed that the market would be up by the years end. The only accurate part of the analysis was that the year did end; although not well.

When Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI) was trading at $114 analysts were silent. When it dropped below $100 and then $90 a share I do not recall anyone writing anything accept that "my pal Warren" was buying. At $80, and then $70 not more than a whisper.

Then yesterday when BNI was trading in the mid $60's (it closed at $64.97) Citigroup (NYSE: C) Investment Research analyst Matthew Troy cut shares of Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. and Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. to "Sell" from "Hold."

Continue reading Chasing Value: Watch BNI -- the heck with Citigroup

CSX's earnings engine was powerful in Q1

CSX (NYSE: CSX), a railway company whose colleagues include Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI), Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE: NSC) and Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP), issued its Q1 report on Tuesday after the bell. As one might imagine, there was a drop in both sales and net income. The top line declined by 17%. The bottom line, on an adjusted basis (taking into account an item from last year's similar quarter), dropped 23% to $0.62 per share.

The economy is still taking its toll, obviously. Volumes were down during the quarter. However, the market sometimes cares about only one thing: beating expectations. CSX actually beat the analyst expectations of $0.51 per share. This significant difference led traders to push shares of CSX higher by 6.5% during Tuesday's after-hours session.

Continue reading CSX's earnings engine was powerful in Q1

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: TASR, M, FDO, NVDA, DGX ...

Analyst upgrades:
  • Merriman upgraded Taser (NASDAQ: TASR) to Buy from Neutral as it believes current valuation levels do not reflect the company's market opportunities and that the law enforcement funding in President Obama's stimulus plan will boost sales in Q4 and FY10.
  • Goldman upgraded Macy's (NYSE: M) to Buy from Neutral and added shares to its Conviction Buy List based on reduced balance sheet concerns and improved risk/reward. The firm also raised their target to $8.25 from $8.
  • JP Morgan upgraded Family Dollar (NYSE: FDO) to Neutral from Underweight and raised its target to $29 from $19 following the better-than-expected Q2 report. The analyst continues to prefer Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR) and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT).
  • Goldman removed Universal Am (NYSE: UAM) from the Conviction Sell List.
  • McDermott (NYSE: MDR) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies.
  • Canadian Natural (NYSE: CNQ) was upgraded to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer at CIBC.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: TASR, M, FDO, NVDA, DGX ...

The week in preview: High hopes for McDonald's, Pfizer, Netflix, P&G

Lots of quarterly reports to come this week, and if you're one of those looking to earnings for signs of the direction of the markets or of the economy, well its going to be a rough week. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters, by and large, expect earnings declines to be deeper and more numerous than earnings gains. And that's true across sectors: Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT), Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), U.S. Steel Corp. (NYSE: X), Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC), New York Times Co. (NYSE: NYT), Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX), Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA), Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. (NYSE: HOT), American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP), Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO), and Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN) are all expected to post double-digit declines this week.

Even the petroleum industry is not immune, with Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX), Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO), ExxonMobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), Murphy Oil Corp. (NYSE: MUR), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY), and Hess Corp. (NYSE: HES) expected to report profits that were as much as 65.3% lower in the fourth quarter.

And analysts expect Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX), Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE: TSN), DuPont (NYSE: DD), and Sun Microsystems Inc. (NASDAQ: JAVA) to have swung to losses for the most recent quarter, from profits in the same period a year ago. And Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) is expect to have deepened its net loss.

But not all is doom and gloom. There are some anticipated EPS gainers as well. Here's a closer look at a few of them.

Continue reading The week in preview: High hopes for McDonald's, Pfizer, Netflix, P&G

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: AAPL, ABX, MOT, RL, CLF

Analyst upgrades:
  • Oppenheimer upgraded AmerisourceBergen (NYSE:ABC) to Outperform from Perform on the company's strong branded drug price inflation, potential for greater than expected buybacks, and their belief that prescription volume growth will stabilize after Q1. The firm raised their target to $45 from $36.
  • Baird upgraded Ecolab (NYSE:ECL) to Outperform from Neutral based on valuation following reaffirmed guidance.
  • Goldman removed shares of Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR) from its Conviction Sell List and upgraded it to Neutral from Sell based on valuation.
  • Teppco Partners (NYSE:TPP) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wachovia.
  • Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX) was raised to Buy from Hold at Canaccord.
  • Coca Cola Femsa (NYSE: KOF)) was upgraded at Morgan Stanley to Overweight from Equal Weight.
Analyst downgrades:
  • RBC Capital downgraded Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares to Underperform from Sector Perform and lowered their target to $70 from $125 following the announcement that CEO Steve Jobs is taking a medical leave of absence. The analyst expects shares to be pressured by reduced earnings growth expectations and near-term leadership uncertainty.
  • Barclays downgraded Motorola (NYSE:MOT) to Equal Weight from Overweight as they do not expect handset recovery for at least 6 to 9 months.
  • Banc of America/Merrill downgraded Shire (NASDAQ:SHPGY) to Underperform from Buy based on earnings risk from the upcoming generic launch of Adderall XR.
  • Royal Caribbean (NYSE:RCL) was added to Goldman's Conviction Sell List.
  • Starent Networks (NASDAQ:STAR) and Ceragon Networks (NASDAQ:CRNT) were downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays.
  • Casella Waste (NASDAQ:CWST) was lowered at JP Morgan to Neutral from Overweight.
Analyst initiations:
  • Citigroup initiated Cliffs Natural (NYSE:CLF) with a Buy rating and $43 target. The firm believes the company's multi-tier North American contract sales arrangements should allow it weather the volatility in the spot and seaborne markets and the firm expects volumes to improve in Q2.
  • ING started Arcelor Mittal (NYSE:MT) with a Sell rating and believes the economic slowdown will have a greater than expected impact on the steel industry.
  • Friedman Billings believes weakness in M&T Bank's (NYSE:MTB) regional economy could hinder the company's growth prospects and the firm is concerned about the bank's concentration in commercial and industrial loans. The firm has an Underperform rating and $30 target on the stock.
  • S&T Bancorp (NASDAQ:STBA) was initiated with a Market Perform rating at Keefe Bruyette.
  • RBC Capital initiated Norfolk Southern (NYSE:NSC) with a Sector Perform rating and $61 target.

CSX beats expectations, but I'd be careful about buying it

CSX (NYSE: CSX), a transportation company whose competitors include Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI), Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE: NSC), and Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP), reported earnings for the third quarter on Tuesday. The results weren't bad, driven in part by a drop in energy costs and an effort to keep costs under control.

Revenues increased 18%, approaching $3 billion. Earnings per share from continuing operations skyrocketed 40% to $0.94. As management pointed out, distributors are exploiting railways to the advantage of their supply chains. This is cool for shareholders of CSX, who obviously are hoping their company can successfully navigate the tough economic landscape that we're all trying to find maps for. And if oil prices continue to fall, then CSX may find it easier to manage its operations.

And there's another positive. According to this source, CSX beat analyst expectations by a penny. Unfortunately, according to that same source, management believes that it will hit the lower end of the spectrum in terms of its previous guidance. CSX is looking to earn between $3.65 and $3.75 per share for the fiscal year.

Taking everything together, I'm not sure I'd want to enter CSX at this time. It is well off the 52-week high, but it's not exactly near the 52-week low, either. Even though the energy picture might be moderating for the company, and even though its business does offer a compelling transportation service, I think a macro slowdown might send shares back toward the low. And according to this source, freight volume declined by over 2%. Problems in the automotive industry are negatively affecting CSX. Heck, problems in many industries will be with us for a while. CSX will see its operations pressured. And, again, that tells me that I'd have to see a big drop in the stock to find it attractive at this point.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Analyst upgrades: NSC, OMX and PQ

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Norfolk Southern, OfficeMax and PetroQuest Energy were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • JP Morgan upgraded Norfolk Southern (NYSE:NSC) to Overweight from Neutral based on leverage to export coal and the tighter truckload market.
  • Credit Suisse upgraded OfficeMax (NYSE:OMX) to Outperform from Neutral citing the company's clean balance sheet, positive cash flow, and limited downside.
  • UBS upgraded PetroQuest Energy (NYSE:PQ) to Buy from Neutral citing valuation and production catalysts. The company's target was raised to $30 from $25.
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Piper Jaffray (NYSE:PJC) was upgraded to Market Weight from Underweight at Thomas Weisel.
  • Corning(NYSE:GLW) was upgraded at Merrill to Buy from Neutral.
  • HSBC lifted BP Plc (NYSE:BP) to Overweight from Neutral.
  • Calgon Carbon (NYSE:CCC) was raised to Hold from Sell at Morgan Joseph.

Analyst initiations: TLEO, HTS and HLIT

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Taleo, Hatteras Financial and Harmonic were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Baird initiated Taleo (NASDAQ:TLEO) with a Neutral citing uncertainty regarding the integration plan and financial guidance regarding the Vurv acquisition.
  • Wachovia believes Hatteras Financial (NYSE:HTS) is well-positioned to capitalize on opportunities in the Agency RMBS sector given the steep yield curve & slow mortgage payments, low expense structure, and Agency-only strategy. Shares were initiated with an Outperform rating.
  • Brean Murray expects Harmonic (NASDAQ:HLIT) to benefit from an increased competitive environment among cable, telco, and satellite operators and their need for encoding and video stream processing equipment. Shares were assumed with a Buy rating and $13 target.
OTHER INITIATIONS:

Norfolk Southern: In the era of record oil prices, the railroads are roaring

Readers of this space know that one of the preferred sectors is the railroad sector. The once near-rust-belt level sector has experienced a revival at the start of the globalization age, and compelling economic trends document the commerce-based underpinnings of this revival.

Most transportation officials agree that the U.S. transportation infrastructure -- highways, roads, bridges, mass transit systems -- is in need of a major upgrade in order to meet the nation's vehicle transportation needs of the 21st century.

The nation's public officials will begin to address the above concern in the years ahead, as public funds become available, but until they do, and due to crude oil's sustained high price, an opportunity has emerged for another transportation form: you guessed it, the railroads. And Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC) is a railroad worth an evaluation.

Norfolk Southern provides rail transportation in the eastern United States, operating a 21,000-mile rail network in the eastern United States and Canada. It's an elaborate intermodal and coal service network that also has a large freight business.

Continue reading Norfolk Southern: In the era of record oil prices, the railroads are roaring

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Oil's not the widespread tax it used to be

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says lots of companies now thrive with crude up here.

Oil's not a tax on everything -- it's a tax on the consumer. That's what I come down to when I see the charts this weekend and ponder what's happening in so much of industrial America.

Company after company that I examine -- the new techs, as I call them -- actually benefit from higher oil prices. Or they can pass them on with ease, because of the worldwide demand being so strong.

Take all of the companies involved with making a Boeing (NYSE: BA) (Cramer's Take): Boeing itself, Alcoa (NYSE: AA) (Cramer's Take), Honeywell (NYSE: HON) (Cramer's Take) and Precision Castparts (NYSE: PCP) (Cramer's Take) being good examples. Each of these is necessary because the new Dreamliner burns lots less fuel, and with fuel the biggest airline cost, it stands to reason that higher energy prices make the plane more desirable even at a higher price point.

Or how about all of the companies involved with process and flow control and efficient motors: Parker-Hannifin (NYSE: PH) (Cramer's Take), Emerson (NYSE: EMR) (Cramer's Take), Eaton (NYSE: ETN) (Cramer's Take) and Flowserve (NYSE: FLS) (Cramer's Take). Those work higher with higher energy prices. CSX (NYSE: CSX) (Cramer's Take), Burlington Northern (NYSE: BNI) (Cramer's Take), Kansas City Southern (NYSE: KSU) (Cramer's Take), Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP) (Cramer's Take) and Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC) (Cramer's Take) are smaller energy users than trucks, and they ship plenty of ethanol and fertilizer.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Oil's not the widespread tax it used to be

As wider audience discovers U.S. railroads, perhaps you should, too

When a major, metropolitan U.S. newspaper discovers a investment trend or a hot sector, count on increased share demand for companies in the sector. When that paper is one of the top three dailies, in this case The Washington Post, count on even more demand.

On Monday, The Washington Post examined the resurgence of the United States' railroad sector, touching on many of the themes discussed here during the past six months, and described why the rails' services are likely to be in demand for many years.

Continue reading As wider audience discovers U.S. railroads, perhaps you should, too

A tale of two railroads (NSC) (CNI)

Railroad giant Norfolk Southern Corporation (NYSE: NSC) was up 10% in just the last week, based in large measure on super 4Q and FY2007 earnings released a week ago, January 22. Fourth quarter operating revenue increased 6% to $2.5 billion, and net income increased 4% to $399 million. What makes these numbers even more impressive is that Norfolk Southern posted revenue increases at the same time it faced significantly higher fuel costs and a measurable reduction in shipments by volume. Coal shipments dropped 2% by volume, while general merchandise shipments dropped a hefty 10% by volume.

The story is the same for FY2007 results. Revenue increased while shipments by volume decreased. And the railroad still made money. The stock closed at $45.07 on January 21, but closed at $52.00 on January 28. Very nice capital appreciation for a week. The company increased its dividend payout by 12% to $0.29 per share, a 32% increase over the last year, and the 102nd consecutive quarter of dividend payout. Clearly, Norfolk Southern is a stock for the very long haul.

Continue reading A tale of two railroads (NSC) (CNI)

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Last updated: November 24, 2009: 10:54 AM

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