Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) shares fell today with most other tech stocks after Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) lowered its second-quarter revenue outlook to a range between $875 million and $950 million, well below analysts' expectations of $1.1 billion. NVDA cited end-market weakness for the lower forecast, which could be a bad sign for INTC. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on INTC.
After hitting a one-year high of $27.99 in December, the stock hit a one-year low of $18.05 in January. This morning, INTC opened at $20.62. So far today the stock has hit a low of $20.26 and a high of $20.80. As of 12:10, INTC is trading at $20.65, down 0.28 (-1.3%). The chart for INTC looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bear-call credit spread above the $23 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 13.0% return in six weeks as long as INTC is below $23 at August expiration. Intel would have to rise by more than 11% before we would start to lose money.
Today was a good end to a strange trading week, while many shares had light volume with today's half-day trading session. Non-Farm payrolls declined worse than expected to 62,000, and May was revised higher to 62,000 jobs lost as well. The ISM non-Manufacturing came in again under 50 at a very weak 48.2, signaling growth isn't back to being close to the table. The dollar traders were probably less than thankful after the European Central Bank raised its overnight rates and as oil neared $146.00 per barrel intra-day. These are today's unofficial closing bell levels:
Abbott Labs (NYSE: ABT) saw a rise of almost 1% to $54.75 after the FDA approved its XIENCE drug eluting stent.
NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) saw a horrific drop after the company's earnings warnings. This is what happens when your new product fails enough that it increased the severity. Shares were down 30% at $12.49 at the close.
Penn National Gaming (NASDAQ: PENN) actually rose despite the merger finally being called off. We knew this was coming. Shares closed up 3.7% at $29.66 today.
Have a great weekend, and remember markets are closed Friday in observance of the July 4 holiday.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Nvidia, Air France and UnitedHealth were today's noteworthy downgrades:
JP Morgan downgraded Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) to Neutral from Overweight following the company's lowered guidance.
Deutsche Bank cut Air France (Other OTC:AFLYY) to Sell from Hold as they believe consensus revenue estimates need to come down.
Following UnitedHealth's (NYSE:UNH) lowered guidance, UBS said there is "little hope" for improvement in 2009 and that the company has above average exposure to the Medicare segment, which is being politically pressured. UBS downgraded shares to Neutral from Buy.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Aetna (NYSE:AET) and Health Net (NYSE:HNT) were downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman.
Dice Holdings (NYSE:DHX) was lowered at Wachovia to Market Perform from Outperform.
Zhone (NASDAQ:ZHNE) was downgraded to Source of Funds from Buy at ThinkPanmure.
Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), the big graphics chip maker, warned on profits. It was an inauspicious beginning to the earnings season for tech stocks. Many of the world's PCs use Nvidia chips. One of the reasons the company gave for its trouble is slowing demand combined with lower prices. The news was considered so bad that NVDA shares fell over 20% after hours.
According toMarketWatch,the company "expects its second-quarter revenue and gross margin to be lower than its previously announced forecast. The company now expects revenue from $875 million to $950 million." The consensus among analysts was that the company would have revenue of $1.1 billion.
Because the firm's products are so closely associated with PC sales, shares in other chip companies like Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) and computer makers like Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) are almost certain to be viewed as candidates for earnings downgrades of their own.
Nvidia's forecast could be the start of a very hard quarter for tech companies. And they may have been Wall Street's last significant hope.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Stock futures were mixed early Thursday morning, the last and shortened day of trading this week -- markets will close at 1 p.m. EDT. Oil, again, has reached new highs as investors awaited the ECB decision on interest rate. Wall Street is also anxious about the upcoming jobs report, especially after Wednesday the ADP employment figures were worse than expected. Today's session will likely be choppy.
Despite starting the day on a positive note Wednesday, U.S. stocks ended sharply lower after the ADP employment figures damped mood on the Street. Also, crude oil prices rose sharply and an analyst warned that General Motors (NYSE: GM) may have to consider bankruptcy at some point; GM stock closed below $10 a share. The Dow industrials tumbled 166 points, or 1.46%, entering bear territory -- down over 20%, the Nasdaq Composite lost 53 points, or 2.32%, and the S&P 500, fell 23 points, or 1.82% - the only major index still not in bear territory.
Soon, at 7:45 a.m. EDT, the European Central Bank will announce its decision on interest rates. The ECB is widely expected to increase rates, which in turn could further weaken the dollar, driving oil prices higher.
Then, at 8:30 a.m., the Labor Department will release the June payroll figures. Economists expect the unemployment rate to fall to 5.4% from 5.5% last month, but job losses are expected to rise to 60,000 positions, up from 49,000 in May, according to Briefing.com.
At 10:00 a.m., the June ISM services index will be released, and another decline is expected.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: iRobot, Felcor Lodging and Office Max were today's noteworthy initiations:
Stanford initiated iRobot (NASDAQ: IRBT) with a Buy rating and $18 target and believes better-than-expected military robot sales will allow the company to beat 2008 consensus estimates.
Felcor Lodging (NYSE: FCH) was initiated at Keefe Bruyette with a Market Perform rating and $12.50 target. The firm believes material upside is unlikely given the company's above average suburban and airport exposure.
Soleil assumed Office Max (NYSE: OMX) with a Hold rating and $17 target, as they believe macroeconomic challenges and heightened competition will limit near-term upside in the stock.
AMD (NYSE: AMD) will launch a new line of laptop chips, which may help conserve battery power. Who cares? The answer is, probably no one.
According toThe Wall Street Journal, "The combination of chips is particularly good for entertainment applications that are driving many laptop purchases, according to Bahr Mahony, director of AMD's mobile business." And that puts AMD up against chips from much stronger rivals Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) and Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA).
AMD's share of the laptop market is about 14% and it has been falling. Several of its products have been late to market, which is unlikely to make it a favorite with PC and server companies that rely on chip delivery timing to launch products.
While there is some chance that the latest chips from AMD could help it get share back from the competition, Wall Street is betting otherwise. Over the last two years, AMD shares are off over 70% while Intel's are up over 30%. That means next to no one thinks the chip company can make a comeback.
The market for PC and server chips may be slowing a bit as it becomes more mature. So, big chip companies like Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) need to figure out where to get their next spurt of growth. Smartphones and other "intelligent" wireless devices sales are rising fast, so why not take a piece of that market. One reason is probably competition, but that rarely keeps companies from entering a market that they think is promising.
According toThe Wall Street Journal, "Intel Corp has been heavily promoting a new breed of pocket-size portable devices as a future market for its chips. Its competitors now hope to reap the benefits." Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) and Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) already dominate the mobile market and may not want to let Intel in. Other large chips companies like Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and AMD (NYSE: AMD) would like a piece of the pie as well.
The gamble by Intel is that there will be huge demand for devices that are smaller than a PC but larger than a smartphone. They will eventually run on WiMax, WiFi and standard cellular broadband networks. The industry calls these "mobile Internet devices."
The success of the new market may swing on one large miscalculation. Consumers may not want a one-pound mini-computer with a tiny keyboard and modest-sized screen. Smartphones like the Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone and RIM (NASDAQ: RIMM) BlackBerry are already advanced "computers" and they are being improved every year.
New chips for new devices -- but what if no one wants them?
Kaufman Brothers reiterated its "hold" on NetFlix (NASDAQ: NFLX) ahead of the company's analyst meeting, according to the AP.
Merrill Lynch upgraded UBS (NYSE: UBS) from "neutral" to "buy," according toBriefing.com. The news service also reports that JPM upgraded Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) from "market perform" to "outperform."
WebMD (NASDAQ:WBMD) was raised to "buy" from "hold" at Citigroup, according to 24/7 Wall St.. The financial site also reports that Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU) was raised to "buy" from "neutral" at UBS.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) shares are trading higher today after the company reported a first-quarter profit of $176.8 million, or 30 cents per share. Although the adjusted profit of 36 cents per share missed analyst estimates of 38 cents per share, a few analysts upgraded NVDA saying margin growth and new products should improve NVDA's prospects through the year. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on NVDA.
After hitting a one-year high of $39.67 in October, the stock hit a one-year low of $17.31 in March. NVDA opened this morning at $22.01. So far today the stock has hit a low of $21.97 and a high of $23.39. As of 12:00, NVDA is trading at $23.38, up 1.43 (6.5%). The chart for NVDA looks bullish but deteriorating slightly, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a September bull-put credit spread below the $17.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 9.9% return in just five and a half months as long as NVDA is above $17.50 at September expiration. NVIDIA would have to fall by more than 25% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
NVDA hasn't been below $17.50 by more than a few cents at all in the past year and has shown support around $22 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's next earnings (due out in mid-August) disappoint, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find from its 50-day moving average, which is currently around $20.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in NVDA.
.gif){kind=logo}
Stock futures were mixed early Thursday morning, the last and shortened day of trading this week -- markets will close at 1 p.m. EDT. Oil, again, has reached new highs as investors awaited the ECB decision on interest rate. Wall Street is also anxious about the upcoming jobs report, especially after Wednesday the ADP employment figures were worse than expected. Today's session will likely be choppy..gif){kind=logo}
The week in preview: New quarter earnings kick-off
Comfort Zone Investing: Keep your recovery expectations real
Will Americans have to slim down to fit into their cars?
