Could a stock that you made 1,100% on still have room to run? Yes, it is possible. In particular if it had a near death experience as a penny stock for a while.

That is the case with Newcastle Investments (NCT), the CMBS lender and real estate investment company that reached a recent high of $7.10 and has settled back down, most recently hovering between $6.70 to $7.00. It closed Thursday December 23 at $6.71.

Analyst Upgrades

• Tyco Electronics (TEL) and Weight Watchers (WTW) to buy from neutral, and Smithfield Foods (SFD) to buy from underperform, at BofA/Merrill.
• Red Hat (RHT) to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.
• Gold Fields (GFI) to overweight from neutral at HSBC.
• Novartis (NVS) to outperform from neutral and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) to neutral from underperform at Credit Suisse.
• Dollar General (DG) to buy from hold at ThinkEquity.
• Eagle Rock Energy (EROC) to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital.

It's that time of year when I start thinking about my 2011 stock picks, and enough folks have been nudging me that I might as well get on with it. The list will not be finalized until the end of the month. During the interim time I will take readers through a number of possibilities, explaining the rational for my suggestions along the way and adding and subtracting until I get the list down to ten.

Today I will start by reviewing opportunities discussed in another post and determine which of these stocks might provide the best value. The list was originally cast as a globally diversified, large cap, dividend paying and relatively stable group of companies that would likely weather any storm. See: Chasing Value: Bonds, Gold, Stocks and Capital Flight

It certainly is presumptuous, perhaps even self serving of me to assume the market is going higher in the face of so much uncertainty.

The reason I hold this belief is that so much money is sitting on the sidelines and much of it is getting restless. It's one thing for those on a fixed income to suffer because the Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates so low, but it is quite another thing to expect $2 trillion dollars of corporate cash to want to live like senior citizens. That cash is a bigger drag on earnings with each passing day.

Analyst Upgrades

• Advance Auto Parts (AAP) was upgraded to Perform from Underperform at Oppenheimer.
• Macquarie upgraded Gen-Probe (GPRO) and Beckman Coulter (BEC) to neutral from underperform.
• Tyco (TYC) was upgraded to neutral from reduce at Nomura.
• BofA/Merrill upgraded Cousins Properties (CUZ) to buy from underperform.
• Morgan Stanley upgraded Energy Conversion (ENER) to equal weight from underweight.
• Thermo Fisher (TMO) was upgraded to buy from hold at Auriga.

In the midst of deep fear and melodramatic headlines in May, I dove into the market suggesting investors take a hard look at three companies that would survive anything the world could throw at them.

There are often profits to be made from the headlines as fear and greed drive the market. You must have read umpteen times in journals worldwide "my pal Warren's" trumpeting smart investors to buy on fear. Well, last may Novartis AG ADS (NVS), Telefonica SA (TEF) and Unilever ADR (UL) were on sale as fear ruled the day. So let's see how these ideas worked out.

According to Bloomberg, Novartis AG (NVS) has agreed to pay $422.5 million in order to resolve criminal and civil investigations into the marketing of Trileptal -- an epilepsy drug. The U.S. Attorney's Office in Philadelphia announced that NVS will plead guilty to a misdemeanor and pay a $185 million fine.

NVS has also agreed to pay $237.5 million in order to resolve civil allegations over Trileptal's promotion for uses not approved by the U.S. FDA. The settlement brings to an end several lawsuits that were filed by whistleblowers citing the False Claims Act -- which allows private citizens to sue on behalf of the government and share in any recovery.

Analyst Upgrades

• Soleil upgraded Baxter (BAX) to buy from hold on expectations the company will benefit from supply disruptions at privately-held plasma manufacturer Octapharma. The firm raised its price target for shares to $56 from $45.
• Deutsche Bank upgraded Dolby (DLB) to buy from hold, citing valuation following the recent underperformance of shares. The firm upped its price target to $75 from $70.
• Bernstein upgraded Alexion (ALXN) to outperform from market perform based on increased Soliris forecasts for PNH and potential in aHUS. The firm also raised its price target to $75 from $60.
• Agrium (AGU) was upgraded to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Roche (RHHBY) was upgraded to conviction buy from neutral at Goldman.
• BMO Capital upgraded Energizer (ENR) to outperform from market perform.

Analyst Upgrades

• Oppenheimer upgraded Teva (TEVA) to outperform from perform. The firm expects the company to generate strong 2H10 earnings and thinks the competition created by Novartis's (NVS) Gilenia will be limited.
• Citigroup upgraded Celanese (CE) to buy from hold, citing valuation and the company's move to add assets in China, as well as possible takeover interest.
• Needham raised Stereotaxis (STXS) to buy from hold as the firm thinks that strong clinical data recently announced by the company could result in faster adoption rates of its robotic surgery.
• BMO Capital upgraded Smurfit-Stone Container (SSCC) given strength in the containerboard market.
• Melco Crown (MPEL) was upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Goldman Sachs raised Temple-Inland (TIN) to buy from neutral.
• Barclays upgraded Lloyds Banking (LYG) to equal weight from underweight.

"For years the health care sector had a well-deserved reputation for consistent returns and profitability regardless of broader economic conditions," observes Elliott Gue.

The contributing editor to Personal Finance explains, "But the past two years have challenged this reputation, and these stocks are out of favor. Some favorites, such as Novartis (NVS) are trading at their most attractive valuation in years.

"Although the sector faces undeniable challenges, markets often overreact to new regulation, providing attractive entry points for savvy investors and a low bar of expectations.

Here is a common sentiment about the stock market: "No fun at all. As I have said before, I believe it has turned into one big casino largely divorced from its original goal of providing capital to companies who produce something of value."

There's a lot of truth to what "granny" recently said to me in an e-mail. Fortunately she also noted "FYI Granny's up 5.86% + dividends." That would give her a gain of about 10% in the past ten months since I posted Where should granny put $50,000, suggesting a very conservative portfolio for an uncertain time.

Not only has she earned a very nice return, surpassing her CD account by 9.5% (20 fold), but she was able to do so with a great deal less volatility than the overall market most of us have lived through.

I'm looking at Novartis (NVS) late in the trading day. There's less than an hour to go before the market closes. The stock is up 0.4% to $50.97. Is it me, or is Wall Street telling us that it isn't too excited by the drug maker's latest earnings report? Which actually wasn't bad, as far as I can tell. Perhaps the market actually is excited, but the response is being muted by the overall tone of the session (volume is strong, I should mention).

The one-year chart for the equity probably wouldn't make you want to buy this one for a trade. It almost seems as if the chance to get in on a great pullback has come and gone, doesn't it? Well, let's have a peek at the fundamentals.

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recently gave Shire Plc (SHPGY) shareholders something to smile about when it approved Daytrana for treating patients between 13 and 17 years who suffer from Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD).

Daytrana is the only ADHD treatment that is available in a transdermal patch, which delivers methylphenidate through the skin into the bloodstream. It is already approved for use by patients between 6 and 12 years.

With this announcement, Shire -- which licensed Daytrana from Noven Pharmaceuticals -- stands to gain market share and increase revenues.

In its weekend edition, Barron's Andrew Bary wonders whether Big Pharma's punishment on Wall Street has gone too far. The sector has fallen out of favor with Wall Street and now has one of the lowest price/earnings ratios of any major sector of the stock market, Bary writes.

Investors are staying away from the large pharmaceutical companies ahead of their looming patent cliff, when blockbuster drugs like Lipitor, Plavix and Singulair lose patent protection and lose most of the sales from these drugs to generics. Investors also fear the companies don't have enough new drugs in the pipeline to make up for the lost sales, which could mean big hits to earnings.

But when the Street writes off one of the world's most important industries and with valuations at all-time lows, investors ought to take notice, Bary says. Especially when the average dividend yield of the big drugmakers is 4.8%.

Biogen Idec (BIIB - option chain) stock is trading lower today on news that an FDA advisory committee recommended approval of Novartis' (NVS) FTY720 treatment for patients with relapsing multiple sclerosis. NVS said the drug worked better in trials than BIIB's drug Avonex. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on BIIB.

This morning, BIIB opened at $47.39. So far today the stock has hit a high of $47.62 and a low of $46.52. As of 12:30, BIIB is trading at $46.64, down $1.50 (-3.1%). The chart for BIIB looks neutral and S&P gives BIIB a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.