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What the Final Harry Potter Film Means to Time Warner

Time Warner (TWX) logoWarner Brothers, Time Warner's (TWX) movie entertainment arm, is going to launch part 2 of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows in 3D during 2011. We take this opportunity to estimate the value of such movies from Time Warner's perspective. Time Warner competes with Viacom (VIA), News Corp. (NWS), CBS (CBS) and Disney (DIS) in the media and entertainment business.

Our price estimate for Time Warner's stock stands at $35.51, in line with market price.

Continue reading What the Final Harry Potter Film Means to Time Warner

Time Warner's 'Sucker Punch' Loses to News Corp's 'Wimpy Kid'

Sucker PunchTime Warner (TWX) probably thought it had the weekend all wrapped up. Sucker Punch looked like it would debut at the top in its opening frame. I don't blame the execs behind this fantasy piece; in theory, it should have brought in all the youthful demographics hungry for a big spring hit to feast upon.

Didn't happen. Instead, News Corp.'s (NWS) Diary of Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules was number one with a gross of well over $23 million, according to domestic-theater data at Box Office Mojo. Punch came in second with $19 million.

Continue reading Time Warner's 'Sucker Punch' Loses to News Corp's 'Wimpy Kid'

CBS Tops Estimate in Q4: Buy the Stock?

CBS Corporation (CBS) issued its fourth-quarter report after the bell today. The results should make shareholders happy. Adjusted net income rose an incredible 77% to 46 cents per share, according to the press release. That number went beyond the estimate by two pennies as indicated by TheFly.

Considering how the stock has fared over the past twelve months, one would have expected a good earnings report. The 52-week low for the shares is $12.26 while the 52-week high is $22.25. The chart communicates a company backed by some solid momentum.

Continue reading CBS Tops Estimate in Q4: Buy the Stock?

News Corp. Earnings: Growth in Adjusted Q2 Profit

News Corp. (NWS) issued its fiscal second-quarter report on Wednesday after the bell. The stock rose 2.5% to $17.51 on active volume by the end of the regular session. The reaction in the after-hours session was, to be honest, dreadfully boring. The shares finished up fractionally to $17.55 at the conclusion of that trading period. Guess the market wasn't too impressed by the earnings news; either that, or it figured that the rise before the posting of the numbers was good enough.

According to the corporate press release, adjusted net income calculated out to 29 cents per share in Q2. That was four pennies above the year-ago profit. Marketwatch says that the 29-cent figure was one penny ahead of the overall estimate.

Continue reading News Corp. Earnings: Growth in Adjusted Q2 Profit

MySpace Cuts Workforce by 47%

In the beginning, the auto industry had a wide array of manufacturers. As the industry grew, new companies formed but most went by the wayside. The same phenomenon is taking place in the Internet. As new companies are formed, older ones fade away.

Such is the story of MySpace, as the Wall Street Journal reports. Founded in 2003, it had a large following of musicians and was the leader in the new concept of social networking. In 2005, News Corp. (NWS) purchased the site for $580 million. The investment was intended to bring News Corp. into the digital age.

Continue reading MySpace Cuts Workforce by 47%

Will News Corp. Make the Right Decision Concerning MySpace?

According to an item highlighted by TheFly, it appears as if News Corp. (NWS) may be interested in selling MySpace. There are no guarantees, of course, but I'll tell you this: I hope a sale happens. And the sooner the better.

Sure, in theory, MySpace was a great acquisition. It was the hot destination on the web for a while. Reality, however, has a way of interfering with even the best ideas. The Internet can evolve very quickly; CEOs need to be extremely cautious about what they decide to buy when they are playing this part of the media game.

Continue reading Will News Corp. Make the Right Decision Concerning MySpace?

Disney Set to Report Q4 Earnings

The Walt Disney Company (DIS) will report fiscal fourth-quarter earnings after the bell on Thursday, November 11. This company is a big long-term holding for me, and if you've read anything I've ever written on the media conglomerate, you'll know that I haven't been too happy with it. Over the years, the stock just hasn't done as well as I thought it would do, not only in terms of capital appreciation, but also as it relates to dividend growth. On both counts, I'm thoroughly disappointed, but I'm particularly displeased with the dividend aspect. Sure, the shares have been a good trade at times, but when you've been an owner since 1998, like I have, the overall picture isn't one to be looked at with admiration.

So, I come up to yet another quarterly report. I enjoy reading them, but I'm not always satisfied with the reaction of the stock once the release has come and gone. What am I hoping for this time around? Please, Wall Street, buy this stock and push it past the 52-week high of 37.98! Is that too much to ask?

Continue reading Disney Set to Report Q4 Earnings

CBS: Buy or Sell After Q3?

cbs earningsCBS (CBS) reported third-quarter earnings last Thursday after the bell. On Friday, the shares closed down 3.7% to $17.01. The 52-week high for the stock is $18.20. Although the one-year chart doesn't show a smooth uptrend, it does indicate that the shares have exhibited a certain amount of strength. But does the sell-off on Friday, which was backed by strong volume, tell us that the stock should be avoided?

I've been cautious about this company. I have to admit, though, that it delivered a decent Q3. The press release says that adjusted profit jumped 40% to 35 cents per share. According to the Associated Press, that figure beat projections by four pennies. The AP article also mentioned something not so surprising: advertising dedicated to political races helped the period.

Continue reading CBS: Buy or Sell After Q3?

News Corp. Reports Q1 Earnings

News Corp. (NWS) has been traveling in a super-tight range over the past 12 months. The 52-week low is $13.21 while the 52-week high is $18.80. Wednesday, the shares closed the regular session at $16.44, but during the extended-hours period, the stock shot up over 3% to $16.99. This was in response to the media conglomerate's fiscal first-quarter report.

Look at the chart. It isn't so hot. It basically is telling you that there isn't a lot of room for error. Buy too high in the range and you could be in for an obligatory round of dollar-cost-averaging. Besides that, there are worries tied to the state of the economy, the quality of the advertising business, the change in digital-distribution strategies, etc. It isn't easy being a content producer these days.

Continue reading News Corp. Reports Q1 Earnings

Chasing Value: Apple Does Not Need $50 Billion

Steve Jobs, the illustrious CEO and the heart and soul of Apple Inc. (AAPL) would have you believe that Apple cannot issue a dividend to shareholders because of the scary competitive business environment. He conveys to us that they need the money to overcome hardship and if the right opportunity comes along make key acquisitions.

This is utter nonsense, a supreme untruth, wasted breadth and a failure to come to grips with reality. In the past quarter Apple increased its cash and short term investments to $50 billion as I wrote it would six weeks ago.

Apple currently has 914 million outstanding shares. With the stock trading around $300 per share, a 2% dividend yield would require $6 per share or, $5.5 billion dollars annually to cover the distribution.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Apple Does Not Need $50 Billion

News Corp.'s 'Wall Street' Sequel: Should It Have Done Better?

Last weekend's box-office race went to News Corp. (NWS). The media conglomerate released the sequel to Wall Street. The project, entitled Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps, stars Michael Douglas and Shia LaBeouf. When you think of the iconic equity the original possesses, and combine it with the current financial zeitgeist (maybe I should have written current negative financial zeitgeist, considering the state we're in), you might have expected a huge hit.

I did. And I was wrong. Sure, according to Box Office Mojo, the second Wall Street captured the top spot. But take a look at the actual domestic gross for the three-day debut: $19 million. Does that sound like a blockbuster? Even in the more sedate September period, I had higher hopes for a more exciting debut.

Continue reading News Corp.'s 'Wall Street' Sequel: Should It Have Done Better?

Movie Business in Need of Attendance

Media companies like Disney (DIS), News Corp. (NWS), and Time Warner (TWX) are dependent on a healthy celluloid industry. As times have changed, the industry has become more challenging. Home video, for example, is mired in a complex conundrum: how does one grow physical media revenue in the digital age? How does video-on-demand fit into the picture? What about online downloads? When you think about it, theatrical exhibition is becoming more important than ever before as post-multiplex channels of distribution undergo radical changes to keep up with the times.

Unfortunately, the following article from the Associated Press indicates that there's a lot of marketing work to be done in Hollywood. You see, while summer box-office sales are up, the quantity of admission transactions has declined.

Continue reading Movie Business in Need of Attendance

Steve Levitan and Hulu: Media Shareholders Should Pay Attention

Hulu logoDistribution of content fascinates me. So does compensation for the talent that generates the content. In my mind, talent is extremely overcompensated via pricey salaries and overgenerous profit-participation schemes. The demands of talent constitute a friction working against the goal of increasing shareholder value in the media industry. Time and time again, we see evidence of the thesis.

These were my thoughts as I checked out Steve Levitan's comments on streaming practices at ABC.com and Hulu that were made in an interview at The Hollywood Reporter. Levitan is one of the creators of the excellent Modern Family series. That really is a quality show, and I'm glad ABC possesses it in its programming portfolio. I'm a shareholder of Disney (DIS), as you might have guessed.

Continue reading Steve Levitan and Hulu: Media Shareholders Should Pay Attention

Lionsgate Beats Competition Again with 'Expendables'

Lionsgate (LGF) continued its reign at the domestic multiplex. Last weekend, the studio was No. 1 with The Expendables. This past weekend, the film was popular enough to repeat the feat, taking in $16 million, according to estimates from Box Office Mojo. The project has grossed well over $60 million so far.

News Corp.'s (NWS) Vampires Suck, Sony's (SNE) Eat Pray Love, and Time Warner's (TWX) Lottery Ticket just couldn't keep up with the action flick. The first two movies grossed about $12 million each, while Ticket took in around $11 million.

Continue reading Lionsgate Beats Competition Again with 'Expendables'

If Snooki Can Beat Viacom, Is the Hollywood Business Model in Trouble?

SnookiI've been thinking about the whole Jersey Shore zeitgeist. You know the show. It's on Viacom's (VIA) MTV. It's a huge hit, everyone is talking about it and its stars (Snooki, The Situation, etc.). It also was mentioned in a recent conference call the media company had with investors.

It was reported that the cast was able to significantly increase its salary for the reality series. When I first heard about the demands, I mused to myself that this was a grand opportunity for Hollywood to say no to minor celebrities. After all, it's just a reality show, folks. Even though Snooki is immensely popular, there are many more Snooki-type individuals out there. Dime-a-dozen comes to mind when thinking of the goofy girl with the poofy coif.

Continue reading If Snooki Can Beat Viacom, Is the Hollywood Business Model in Trouble?

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