Continue reading Housing Market Slides, but Some Silver Lining Visible

Housing Market Slides, but Some Silver Lining Visible originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 27 Jan 2010 08:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Closing Bell: Stock bulls and dollar death (DDRX,GMCR, PEET, SBUX, EBAY, CI, TECD)

Closing Bell: Stock bulls and dollar death (DDRX,GMCR, PEET, SBUX, EBAY, CI, TECD) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 23 Nov 2009 16:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

If you're worried about the value of your home, 2010 could bring a little bit of good news. The National Association of Realtors reported Friday that home prices could edge 4% higher next year. In 2009, home prices declined by 13%. The association's chief economist, Lawrence Yun, says, "Going into 2010, I anticipate that prices will also begin stabilizing or begin to modestly improve." He continues, "I don't think the fear factor will be at play in 2010."

First-time buyers taking advantage of a range of incentives -- including an $8,000 tax credit -- accounted for 47% of transactions this year, up from 41% in 2008. With the credit extended to April 30, 2010, there's hope that first-timers will continue to breathe some life into the real estate market. According to Yun, approximately 2 million people gobbled up the tax advantage.

Continue reading Home values could creep up next year

Home values could creep up next year originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 14 Nov 2009 17:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

A year ago, Manhattan homeowners lived within the firm grasp of the worst recession in 70 years. A skyrocketing real estate market seemed ready to come back to Earth, as carnage in the financial services industry - which spread to just about every other business - decimated incomes and net worths throughout the city.

From the second quarter to the third, this year, the sale of co-ops and apartments spiked between 46% and 69% according to several reports from the real estate business. Sales are still lower than last year, but the recovery has been nothing short of amazing (to the chagrin of those of us who had dreams of one day moving up from the rental class).

Prudential Douglas Elliman reported a price increase of almost 2% from the second quarter, though the median was down 8% to 18% from last year - to the $760,000 to $850,000 range. Jonathan Miller, president and CEO of Miller Samuel Inc., a real estate appraisal and consulting firm, calls this good news, but cautions that it doesn't mean we're at the bottom.

Continue reading Pricey Manhattan homes are moving again

Pricey Manhattan homes are moving again originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 05 Oct 2009 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The market seems to want to go up each day as it has relentlessly almost every trading session since April. But yesterday, it had a tiny setback after the FOMC announcement. Today the culprit was housing. The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales declined 2.7% in August. Every economist worth his salt said the number would rise.

Good news on the unemployment front did give the market an early boost this morning. Within an hour, though, bad news on the housing sales front wiped out the gains and moved the major indices into negative territory, where they have remained.

Here were today's unofficial closing numbers:

Dow 9,706.99 -41.56 (-0.43%)
S&P 500 1,050.78 -10.09 (-0.95%)
Nasdaq 2,107.61 -23.81 (-1.12%)

Continue reading Closing bell: home sales don't help (AONE, BAC, WFC, GE, CHTP, JPM)

Closing bell: home sales don't help (AONE, BAC, WFC, GE, CHTP, JPM) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 24 Sep 2009 16:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Existing home sales rise in February

Existing home sales rise in February originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 23 Mar 2009 10:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Home prices continue to drop, but is it really a bad thing?

Home prices continue to drop, but is it really a bad thing? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 12 Feb 2009 17:04:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Pending home sales unexpectedly rise 6.3%, NAR says originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 09 Jun 2008 12:24:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Fannie Mae doesn't expect the housing market to rebound until after 2008, according to an interview Chief Executive Daniel Mudd gave to Bloomberg News in which he offered a far bleaker assessement than the National Association of Realtors, which expects a rebound in the first quarter of next year.

"We don't think we hit a bottom until the end of '08 and then we have some period of time to work our way back up again,'' he told Bloomberg, adding that he expects U.S. home prices to fall 2 percent to 4 percent this year and even more next year.

Wow.

Does this give Ben Bernanke cover to cut interest rates a second time or even a third? Does this mean that the government is going to need to do more to help homeowners?

Stay tuned.

Fannie Mae says housing market won't rebound until after 2008 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 27 Sep 2007 14:35:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Realtors expect further housing slump originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 11 Sep 2007 18:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Lower home sales lead to falling prices - not necessarily a bad thing

Lower home sales lead to falling prices - not necessarily a bad thing originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 15 Aug 2007 17:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) CEO Angelo Mozillo, who spooked the stock market when he delayed his forecast for a housing market recovery until 2009, has been one of the most realistic executives in the housing industry. However, his downbeat assessment still may be overly optimistic.

If housing prices were inflated by a credit bubble as some have indicated, it will not be easily resolved. Indeed, data released today from the National Association of Realtors shows the pace of existing home sales fell to a four-and-a-half year low while new mortgage applications hit their lowest level since February.

Under one scenario, if there is a major shock to the credit markets and the economy, the number of defaults could skyrocket. Home prices could recover in 2009 but from a much lower level. This is what occurred in the Great Depression. However, people usually don't abandon their homes if they can avoid it. With unemployment rates at near record lows and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke keenly aware of the situation and ready to react, I don't think this scenario is likely.

The other scenario involves a slow re-adjustment back to the long-term averages. Home prices may drop minimally on annual basis for the next five to ten years until we return to reality. People will find that in ten years their home will be worth approximately what they paid today. The home will be a dead asset as opposed to an investment vehicle for long-term appreciation.

Some predict that either scenario will be devastating to the stock market. The first scenario would definitely fit this prediction. However, the second more likely scenario may not. In the late 1980's and early 1990's, we experienced a similar problem with Savings and Loans related to junk bonds. However, the problem acted as overhang to long-term economic growth but did not usher in a secular bear market. There were brief but terrifying downturns in 1987, 1990, and 1994. However, the market continued to rise.

With this announcement the housing market moves one step closer to painful reality. However, do not extend this analysis further than is warranted by the facts and data.

Doug Roberts is the Founder and Chief Investment Strategist for FollowtheFed.com, an independent research firm focusing on investment strategies using the Federal Reserve's impact on the stock prices.

The Housing Market: One Step Closer to Reality! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 25 Jul 2007 16:35:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

1. Homebuilder Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN) posted a loss for its second quarter,
2. S&P/Case-Shiller indicated that home prices in 20 cities fell by the largest amount in 6 years. (view last months S&P/Shiller report)
   
3. Commerce Department reported that purchases of new homes fell 1.6 percent last month.

Continue reading Weak housing market and lower consumer confidence runs hand in hand

Weak housing market and lower consumer confidence runs hand in hand originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 26 Jun 2007 18:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

According to The National Association of Realtors, existing home sales fell again during May to the lowest level in the past four years. This news should really come as no surprise as the sub-prime mortgage problems continue to weigh down the ailing housing market.

As the number of existing home sales falls, so does the average price for homes in the market. Last month was the 10th straight month of falling home prices, and there really is no sign that this trend is likely to reverse any time soon. So, on the bright side, for all of you looking to buy a new house, the home of your dreams is getting more and more affordable each passing month.

The average price for an existing home across America is now only $223,700. This represents a 2.1% drop from last year.

A few years back it was definitely a sellers market, with prices shooting through the roof. Those days are gone. It has been a long time since I heard any of my friends bragging about how much money they just made flipping their most recent home purchase.

Continue reading Look at the bright side: Your dream home is getting more affordable!

Look at the bright side: Your dream home is getting more affordable! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 25 Jun 2007 14:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

More weakness in the housing market originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 25 May 2007 12:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

It seems like every day we are hearing more and more ominous news out of the housing industry. It wasn't that long ago that the practice of flipping real estate for a quick buck was not only widespread, but also had a very high probability for success. Not any longer, and today the National Association of Realtors said that for the first time in their history of tracking home values, 2007 will probably see a drop in home prices.

According to the NAR home prices will more than likely see a drop of around 1% this year. To put that into a dollar figure, that would put the average for an existing single family home at $219,800. This really shouldn't come as a surprise to any of our readers. Back on April 24, we took a look at March sales, and noticed that March represented the 8th straight month of falling home prices. The current 8 month streak represents the longest stretch ever for falling prices, so seeing an overall drop for all of 2007 really shouldn't shock any of us.

If we try hard enough, I am sure we can all remember the glory days a couple years ago. It seemed like every other week I was hearing someone telling me about the $40 or $50,000 they had just made flipping their house. This just is not something you would even dream of hearing in today's world.

Lawrence Yun, a senior economist for NAR, said speculative real estate investors have completely left the market. These were the guys responsible for pushing prices higher and higher, and without them in there to keep the prices propped up, we are quickly seeing the market fall apart.

Should homeowners freak out and consider their homes a losing investment? Am I suggesting people avoid buying a home? Not at all.

In the long run home ownership will continue to be a good way to create income, but things are going back to the way they used to be, real estate is once again turning into a long term investment, you just have to remember to treat it like one.

Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last two years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor'sObserver.

Home prices to fall in 2007 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 08 May 2007 18:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.