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Year-to-date winners and losers of the S&P 500 Index

With the end of the year fast approaching, it's time to start putting together "best of" and "worst of" lists for 2008. This entry is a little bit of both, but it's admittedly heavy on the "worst of." Among the current members of the S&P 500 Index (SPX), just 11 were sitting on a year-to-date gain as of the close of trading on Monday, November 24. Since Big Lots (NYSE: BIG) is unchanged, that means we have a whopping 488 securities sitting on a loss for the year.

Let's start with the bad news first. Among the worst-performing stocks on the SPX, the six top spots are claimed by stocks in the Insurance and Real Estate sectors. General Growth Properties (NYSE: GGP) has the dubious honor of dropping nearly 98% on the year, and -- not surprisingly -- American International Group (NYSE: AIG) isn't far behind.

Continue reading Year-to-date winners and losers of the S&P 500 Index

Option Update: Bank volatility elevated into EPS & outlooks

National City (NYSE: NCC) closed at $3.10. NCC is scheduled to report Q3 EPS on October 21. NCC November 3 straddle is priced at $1.55 according to Track Data, suggesting large price fluctuations.

Citigroup (NYSE: C) closed at $18.62. Citi is scheduled to report EPS on October 16. Citi October 20 straddle is priced at $1.43, November 20 straddle is priced at $4.74, and Citi November option implied volatility of 98 is above its 26-week average of 54 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

PNC Financial Services (NYSE: PNC) closed at $63.04. PNC is expected to report EPS on October 16. PNC October 62.5 straddle is priced at $6.80, November 62.5 straddle is priced at $13.70. PNC November option implied volatility of 79 is above its 26-week average of 45 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Financial foundation crumbles: First banks, now insurance

The banking system has been crumbling for over a year, but last month's collapse of American International Group (NYSE: AIG) -- which prompted an $85 billion government takeover -- suggests that insurance is not immune from the problems. As a reminder, AIG got snared in the $62 trillion Credit Default Swap (CDS) market whose growth was spurred by McCain advisor, Phil "Americans are Whiners" Gramm.

And as insurance crumbles, banks keep suffering. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and National City Corp. (NYSE: NCC) are both hurting. How much?

  • Bank of America's earnings plunged 68% to $1.18 billion, or $0.15/share -- missing by 60% analysts' forecast of 62 cents. Bank of America will raise capital by selling $10 billion of common stock and slashing its dividend in half from 64 cents to 32 cents. One analyst cut the bank's 2009 earnings estimate to $2.50 per share from $3 per share -- this is well below the $3.12 per share from a Thomson Reuters analyst poll -- and lowered his price target by $2 to $26.
  • National City Corp. and its National City Bank both suffered debt downgrades from Fitch. For instance, Fitch slashed the bank subsidiary's long and short-term Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) to A- from A. And it lowered the bank and holding company's Individual rating to C from B.

Continue reading Financial foundation crumbles: First banks, now insurance

As Sovereign and Fifth Third crumble, will Dow have its worst tumble in history?

The merger of Wachovia Corporation (NYSE: WB) and Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) left investors to wonder who would be next to crumble. And that question was answered quickly: Sovereign Bancorp (NYSE: SOV) and National City Corporation (NYSE: NCC) are on deck -- down 68% and 57%, respectively in today's trading. Meanwhile, thanks to the Republican vote to sink the bailout bill, the Dow is down 677.

The good news is that today's decline is not going to be the biggest in history on a percentage basis. The record that still stands was set in October 1987, when the Dow fell 22.6% -- 508 points really meant something back then -- that's because the Dow was trading at 2,248 before the crash. It would take at least a 2,519 point decline in the Dow to beat that crash. But 21 years ago, the economy was in nowhere near as bad shape as it is today.

I hope I'm wrong but I would not be shocked if Sovereign and National City were no longer independent banks by the end of the week.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He owns Citi shares and has no financial interest in the other securities mentioned.

Option Update: Wachovia and National City volatility elevated

Wachovia (NYSE: WB) is recently trading at $4.25 in pre-open trading, below its close of $10. WB October 10 straddle was priced at $7.20 on September 26, November 10 is at $8.40 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

National City (N&SE: NCC) is recently trading at $3.64 in pre-open trading, below its close of $3.71. NCC's share price declined 25% after JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) purchased Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) banking assets. BMO Capital says: "NCC is not in the same situation as WM was." NCC October 4 straddle is priced at $2.45; November 4 straddle is priced at $2.75; according to Track Data, suggesting large price fluctuations.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Newspaper wrap-up: Some banks consider selling money management units

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • The Wall Street Journal's "Fund Track" reported that some banks struggling to raise capital may sell their money management units. National City Corporation (NYSE: NCC) is selling its Allegiant Funds, Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ: FITB) is considering selling its Fifth Third Asset Management, and KeyCorp (NYSE: KEY) will possibly sell its Victory Capital Management unit.
  • The Wall Street Journal also reported that Andrew Cuomo, the New York state Attorney General, is preparing to file civil securities-fraud charges against UBS AG (NYSE: UBS), possibly as early as this week. Sources said the lawsuit may include allegations of malfeasance by senior UBS executives.
WEB SITES:
  • Bloomberg reported that money manager John Paulson, the owner of Paulson & Co., is launching a hedge fund that will provide capital to financial firms which have been damaged by the housing crisis. Paulson, who wants to open the fund by December, used bets against the U.S. housing market to help him earn $3.7B in 2007.
  • After U.S. lawmakers reached a deal on legislation to alleviate the housing recession, the House of Representatives will today vote on a rescue plan for Fannie Mae -- Federal National Mortgage Association (NYSE: FNM) -- and Freddie Mac -- Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (NYSE: FRE). Representative Barney Frank said that the package, which increases the likelihood Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will get the authority to inject capital into the two, is "fully acceptable," Bloomberg reported.
  • Oil trading losses forced SemGroup LP, which used to be America's 12th largest private company, to declare bankruptcy yesterday. Reuters noted that SemGroup LP's parent company is SemGroup Energy Partners LP (NASDAQ: SGLP).

Cramer on BloggingStocks: JP Morgan made a huge mistake

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the acquired Bear Stearns portfolio is worth even less than he thought.

How bad was that Bear Stearns portfolio? I am beginning to believe that JPMorgan's (NYSE: JPM) (Cramer's Take) buy of Bear is looking like a big mistake. It can only be justified by what might have been an even bigger problem for JPM -- the collapse of the trades that Bear made, which were being processed by JPM's clearing.

We are now beginning to get a real sense of the worthlessness of the mortgage portfolios. Not that we got any help from the SEC, which has taken a "we don't care what's in the mortgages as long as you tell us you have mortgages" attitude. That's been worthless for investors, and maybe even for JPMorgan.

The losses now exceed $400 billion, according to my modeling (if you simply assumed that 50% of the exotic mortgages that were issued from 2005 to 2007 eventually went into default). That's amazing, but it looks like I dramatically underestimated the losses. UNDERESTIMATED!

The most egregious issuers of these exotic mortgages were Bear, Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) (Cramer's Take) and Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) (Cramer's Take). I believe that JPM has taken in a huge number of uninsurable, non-hedgeable mortgage instruments that are a pure write-off. And that means they are probably underwater on everything they took in.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: JP Morgan made a huge mistake

As banks get to eat more real-estate losses, shareholders about to get killed

Some analysts thought that once banks moved though their bad bet on subprime paper, they might start to see improvements in their earnings. Not so fast. Plain old loans for houses and condos are going bad so fast that lenders are about to get hit again on the bottom line.

The Wall Street Journal points out in one of it top stories that "Federal regulators warned Thursday that banking-industry turmoil would continue as financial institutions come to terms with piles of bad loans they made to finance the construction of homes and condominiums."

Many investors may say that the information is obvious, and that it was expected that falling real-estate prices would hurt banks. But the real victims may be bank shareholders. As large lenders take more losses on their portfolios, they will have to raise more capital and further dilute shareholders. Banking stocks which are down two-thirds from their highs could drop even further.

Now that banks are selling off these large loans, the quarterly reports for companies like Wachovia (NYSE:WB) and Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) are about to get hammered again. Wachovia trades at below $22, down from a 52-week high of more than $54. Wells Fargo has fallen from a 52-week high of almost $38 to $27. Regional banks like National City (NYSE:NCC) have had it worse. It shares have fallen from a one-year high of $34.62 to $5.25.

Selling in those stocks in not over. Not even close.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and author of the Ten Stocks Under $10 letter.

Newspaper wrap-up: Federal regulators have National City under scrutiny

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • The banking unit of National City Corporation (NYSE: NCC) recently entered into a "memorandum of understanding" with federal regulators, the Wall Street Journal reported. The banking unit has bad loans, and the agreement basically means that the bank is on probation, as the government pressures financial institutions.
  • The Wall Street Journal also reported that Justice Department criminal prosecutors and its U.S. attorney's office in Brooklyn, NY are investigating American International Group Inc (NYSE: AIG) to see if they overstated the value of contracts tied to subprime mortgages.
OTHER PAPERS:

Analyst downgrades: NCC, HST, PKTR and FTE

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Host Hotels, Packeteer and France Telecom were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Deutsche Bank downgraded shares of Host Hotels (NYSE: HST) to Hold from Buy and lowered their target to $19 from $22.50 on a lack of near-term catalysts and industry headwinds. Note the firm also downgraded Sunstone Hotel Investors (NYSE: SHO), Strategic Hotels (NYSE: BEE) and DiamondRock Hospitality (NYSE: DRH) to Hold from Buy.
  • Merriman downgraded shares of Packeteer (NASDAQ: PKTR) to Neutral from Buy following the acquisition bid by Blue Coat Systems (NASDAQ: BCSI) as they are not expecting additional suitors to emerge.
  • ABN Amro cut France Telecom (NYSE: FTE) to Hold from Buy as they see increased risk from the company's acquisitions strategy.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
  • Keefe Bruyette downgraded Capitol Federal (NASDAQ: CFFN) to Underperform from Market Perform.
  • Omnicell (NASDAQ: OMCL) was lowered to Neutral from Strong Buy at Broadpoint.
  • National City (NYSE: NCC) was downgraded at Bear to Underperform from Outperform.

Analyst upgrades: NCC, BRLC and MHS

MOST NOTEWORTHY: National City, Syntax Brillian and Medco Health were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of National City (NYSE: NCC) to Buy from Sell on valuation as they believe their $9.00 target is in-line with the company's franchise value.
  • Baird upgraded Syntax Brillian (NASDAQ: BRLC) to Outperform from Neutral based on recently announced strategic initiatives and valuation.
  • Jefferies upgraded shares of Medco Health (NYSE: MHS) to Buy from Hold as they believe the company's renewed PBM contract with United Healthcare (NYSE: UNH) removes a major overhang.
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Friedman Billings raised Downey Financial (NYSE: DSL) to Market Perform from Underperform.
  • Volterra (VNASDAQ: LTR) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Piper.
  • Alliance Data (NYSE: ADS) was raised at JP Morgan to Overweight from Neutral.

Newspaper wrap-up: National City expected to receive $6B-plus capital infusion

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • Private equity firm Corsair Capital and several of the banks bigger shareholders are expected to inject over $6B into Cleveland regional bank National City Corporation (NYSE: NCC), the Wall Street Journal reported.
  • According to sources, the Financial Times reported that Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) is planning to sell a portion of its 9% stake in China Construction Bank in order to raise capital. However, Bank of America will offset some of the share sales by exercising options it holds to buy additional stakes in the bank at levels that are now well below market rates.
OTHER PAPERS:
  • The UK Times said The Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (NYSE: RBS) confirmed that it is considering a rights issue that is expected to raise up to GBP10B for the British bank.
  • The UK Telegraph reported that the BBC is talking to private equity firms to join in a bid for Virgin Media Inc's (NASDAQ: VMED) Virgin Media Television, which owns a percentage of the UKTV content business that the BBC doesn't already own.

Analyst upgrades: LULU, NCC and DVN

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Lululemon, National City and Devon Energy were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Thomas Weisel upgraded shares of Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU) to Overweight from Market Weight as they believe the company's momentum continues following the strong results; the firm maintains a $43 target on shares.
  • Bear upgraded National City (NYSE:NCC) to Outperform from Underperform citing favorable risk/reward following reports is is considering a transaction with KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY).
  • JP Morgan raised Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN) to Overweight from Neutral citing solid organic growth with high rates of returns.
OTHER UPGRADES:

Option Update: National City volatility elevated as NCC reviews strategic alternatives

National City (NYSE: NCC) is mulling plans to sell itself to KeyCorp (MYSE: KEY) according to the WSJ.

NCC announced on April 1 that its Board of Directors are reviewing a range of strategic alternatives for the company. NCC closed at $9.99.

RBC Capital says: "We would be surprised if the company will receive acceptable bids for the entire corporation considering its high exposure to higher risk assets."

NCC April option implied volatility of 122 is above its 26-week average of 57 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Newspaper wrap-up: Lehman sees possible abusive trading in its shares

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • According to the Wall Street Journal, troubled Ohio bank National City Corporation (NYSE: NCC) is considering a plan to sell itself to rival KeyCorp (NYSE: KEY), people familiar with the matter said.
  • The Financial Times reported that Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE: LEH) yesterday said it had sent information to the SEC about possible abusive short-selling in its shares in recent days. Lehman CFO Erin Callan said the SEC was examining whether hedge funds collaborated to drive down the bank's share price in the days following the near collapse of The Bear Stearns Companies (NYSE: BSC).
  • Colombia's heavy oil area could hold 20B barrels of recoverable resources, the Financial Times reported, giving the country greater reserves than leading producers such as Mexico and Algeria, according to Colombia's government.
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Last updated: February 11, 2012: 05:10 PM

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