"National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV), a buy in our 'Wildcatters portfolio,' will see an outsized benefit from improving conditions in the global oil market," says Elliott Gue in The Energy Strategist.

"Rig technology is the crown jewel of National Oilwell's business; the unit builds key equipment used on land and offshore drilling rigs.

"The unit is currently benefiting from the boom in deepwater drilling activity -- one of the only drilling markets that continue to see growth.

"Equipment used on deepwater drilling rigs is far more complex and expensive than that used on land or shallow-water rigs. As a result, selling equipment into the deepwater market carries far higher profit margins for National.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the oil stocks' decline yesterday was exacerbated by a hedge fund's collapse.

"I think the collapse in the commodity stocks shows a worldwide recession."

"The decline in oil and oil service stocks, far more severe than the decline in the commodity, bodes for $80 oil and gas."

"Without a hurricane hitting rigs, the companies involved in the servicing and maintaining rigs will have severe earnings declines, at least according to their stocks."

These are three perfectly acceptable analyses of the action in the Oil Services HOLDRs (AMEX: OIH) (Cramer's Take) and in the oils in general yesterday in light of Gustav's failure to do any real damage and a continued expectation that economies around the world are slowing.

It's just that they are false takeaways. The single most material issue for the stocks -- not the companies -- was the collapse of Ospraie Management, which blew up and got blown out and took a ton of stocks down with it. The fact that this market is thin, that lots of players clearly knew this blowup was coming, and that the fund was no doubt leveraged up the wazoo (as all desperate managers tend to be) exacerbated the declines perhaps two- or threefold.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says there's a big disconnect between the trade, orchestrated by the funds, and the real-world demand.

How can anyone actually own oil or natural gas through this relentless assault on price? I know when it was going up, the talk was that all of these new funds were indexing trillions to commodities and it was just going to stay there, and that's why there was a new level of oil demand.

Can those same accounts come in every day and take this relentless pasting no matter what the news? And do they believe the news, that they are losing money today because some storm went to Daytona and not to New Orleans?

Yesterday, I had Jim Hackett, the CEO of Anadarko Pete (NYSE: APC) (Cramer's Take) on "Mad Money at the Half," and he was flabbergasted at the activity in the futures pit and how unrealistic it has become. He's focused on natural gas, where he says the demand at $8 by industry -- the glass makers and chemical companies and steel and aluminum users -- is voracious. But the futures themselves just keep going down, regardless of the demand.

It has been a rocky year for Wall Street, but even amid the uncertain market conditions there are some companies that are playing with a lot of cash. In addition, they know how to wisely use their funds, which makes them strong enough to beat any challenge.

One important factor that determines the stability of a company is its corporate cash flow. CNNMoney is looking at stocks with both healthy cash flow and a surplus of cash, which helps them avoid tough situations where they may need to raise their capital (check out its slideshow of these five picks). Another element that CNNMoney takes into account when picking companies is their ability to reinvest cash in ways that assure them a nice profitability.

Let's look at some of the companies that CNNMoney likes:

CNN/Money is good enough to put out the top performing stocks of 2007 list. Most of the companies are fairly familiar, but leading the pack for the S&P 500 is National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV), a stock almost no one has heard of.

The company has been in the right place at the right time. It makes equipment for the oil and gas exploration industry. With the global need for energy rising, NOV is a near-perfect investment.

The firm is not only growing due to a strong industry environment. It is also making what Wall Street thinks are some smart acquisitions. It announced it would buy oilfield service company Grant Prideco (NYSE: GRP) for $7.4 billion in cash and stock. Because the companies are in similar fields, chances are the duplicate costs can be taken out to improve operating margins.

In the September quarter, NOV net income doubled to $366 million, which beat analyst estimates. Backlog for its products also hit a record.

But, the success of National Oilwell Varco points out that in the market, it is better to be lucky than good. The odds that the company could have done so well if oil were at $30 a barrel are probably low. The demand for exploration would be substantially less. The need for drilling equipment would be modest.

National Oilwell Varco had a great year. If oil prices move down, Wall Street should not count on it again.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

It doesn't take a geologist or an oil sector engineer to figure out that oil / energy-based companies are in demand in this era of elevated energy prices. And when these companies need parts for maintenance, that's where National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV) comes in.

National Oilwell designs, manufactures and markets components and systems used in oil and gas drilling/production. Here's a telling statistic regarding NOV's involvement: more than 90% of mobile offshore rigs and a majority of land rig use components manufactured by NOV. Those are Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT)-type usage numbers.

In general, analysts see continued, strong EPS growth for NOV: the growth in offshore rig newbuild orders may decelerate in 2008, but overall orders should nevertheless remain strong in 2008. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for NOV are $3.72/$4.53.

Another positive: It's important to note that slowing newbuild orders will not spell the end of NOV's solid returns on equity. The reason? The world's stock of rigs is deteriorating, with the average rig exceeding its designed life expectancy. In other words, there are lots of older rigs in use, replacing or upgrading these rigs will generate substantial work for NOV, and these tasks are destined to remain high-margin activities.

The First Call mean rating for NOV is: Buy. [19 firms.] Mean 2008 target: $81.30. [high: $90, low: $63.]

Stock Analysis: National Oilwell is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than one year should be rewarded from NOV's shares. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $49.

National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV) volatility elevated as NOV at record high on oil rally.

NOV, a worldwide provider of equipment a components used in oil and gas drilling production operations, closed at record high of $136.94. WTI Crude oil futures are down 0.03% at $78.21 a barrel according to Bloomberg. NOV overall option implied volatility of 43 is above its 26-week average of 38 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risk.

Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) volatility at 30 into third quarter business outlook.

TXN closed at $35.72. ThinkEquity says that "TXN provided an in-line mid-quarter update." ThinkEquity goes on to say, "we view this as mildly disappointing given the strong environment for PCs, consumer, and high performance analog, and investor expectations for an in-line to slightly better outlook." TXN September option implied volatility of 30 is above its 26-week average of 27 according to Track Data, suggesting slightly larger price fluctuations.

Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.