TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says there's a big disconnect between the trade, orchestrated by the funds, and the real-world demand.
How can anyone actually own oil or natural gas through this relentless assault on price? I know when it was going up, the talk was that all of these new funds were indexing trillions to commodities and it was just going to stay there, and that's why there was a new level of oil demand.
Can those same accounts come in every day and take this relentless pasting no matter what the news? And do they believe the news, that they are losing money today because some storm went to Daytona and not to New Orleans?
Yesterday, I had Jim Hackett, the CEO of Anadarko Pete (NYSE: APC) (Cramer's Take) on "Mad Money at the Half," and he was flabbergasted at the activity in the futures pit and how unrealistic it has become. He's focused on natural gas, where he says the demand at $8 by industry -- the glass makers and chemical companies and steel and aluminum users -- is voracious. But the futures themselves just keep going down, regardless of the demand.
It is reasonable to believe that as the cost of crude rises, demand will fall. It is in the Economics 101 textbooks. It has to to be true.
Not so, says The International Energy Agency. According toThe New York Times, the think tank says "the small decline in oil demand in the industrialized countries will be more than offset by an estimated increase in demand of 3.7 percent a year from 2008 to 2013 in developing countries, particularly in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America."
The argument has the benefit of making sense. Asia, especially China, cannot keep up its GDP growth without gas to drive its transportation industry. It has cut the amount it provides to underwrite the price of diesel and gas, but it has not eliminated the practice. Driving a car or truck on the mainland is still cheap.
In the Middle East and Latin America, many of the countries are net exporters of crude. Brazil recently claimed that it found one of the largest oil deposits ever discovered. The field are just off its coast in the ocean. Many of the nations with excess oil will keep some of that at home to build their own infrastructures.
Oil prices are staying high whether the US can afford that or not.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says forget calling a financial bottom -- everything you need is right in front of you.
Do you think this week will finally end the oil inventory nonsense? Do you think this week could be the breakout where oil doesn't trade on the slight build or the "heavier than expected" chatter?
I sure hope so.
Yesterday was a horrible market, but midday, when the market was really beginning to roll over, the whole complex turned. This was quite an achievement given the overwhelming collapse of the futures and the propensity of the bears to push things down.
Today with the futures breaching $140 -- remember, I think they're on the way to $150 -- we can see the error of relying on these numbers, which I have said for years now are meaningless. Witness how many times the inventories have been more full than expected and yet oil has doubled.
I want to go back to the cheaper-than-oil stocks, though. Natural gas. Oil has to go down $65 to get to where natural gas is right now. Meaning that historically oil trades at six times the price of natural gas. So natural gas -- forget the season, which is supposed to be bad for nat gas -- needs to come higher.
"Some shippers take their chances in the spot market; these should be avoided. Teekay, however, offers a high yield and lower earnings volatility due to its lower-than-average exposure to the spot market.
"Teekay is well exposed to the growing market for liquidified natural gas (LNG). The growth profile of the LNG market is compelling. The vast majority of the world's natural gas reserves are stranded in Eurasia and the Middle East, while consumption is greatest in the U.S., Far East and Europe.
"Imports of LNG to the U.S., for example, are expected to increase by more than 400%, by some estimates, between now and 2012. Clearly, there is wide-eyed potential growth in the LNG market.
"There are also high barriers to entry in its transportation since it requires huge investments in loading and reliquification terminals for highly specialized ships. Given the support of its parent company -- Teekay Corp. -- Teekay LNG Partners is a force far larger than its relatively small size would have your believe at first blush.
"The company's growth is virtually assured for years to come due to the imbalance in the geographic distribution of reserves and consumers of natural gas. Teekay LNG Partners, yielding 7.7%, is a publicly-traded master limited partnership, which means you should look into the peculiarities of tax treatment of distributions."
Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.
It was only a few weeks ago I was thinking, how much higher can this one go but sure enough, Precision Drilling Services TR (NYSE: PDS), the Canadian Trust went higher. In my last report, PDS announced its monthly dividend distribution. The current yield is 5.6% down from the 10% range it was paying when I first recommended it, but still a good return.
Today PDS closed at $28.04, a new 52-week high, now 81.24% above the $15.47 it was five months ago. During the trading day it touched on $28.12.
Last month Precision reported a 33% loss and still the share price is moving up. This supports all the reports that keep popping up regarding the price differential between natural gas and oil suggesting the the NG prices are going up and that drilling companies like PDS will be swamped. Although PDS has had a rough trailing 12 months, creating the buying opportunity, the stock price is clearly being lifted by anticipation of a bright future.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of PDS.
The current dividend yield of 5.8% remains very generous and far above most other stocks in the sector. After some of my high dividend stock recommendations either under performed or simply cut their distribution, it is reassuring to see that PDS not only is maintaining its dividend, but in this particular case continues to pay out monthly, allowing for better compounding of the yield.
The stock closed today at $27.15, up 75.5% from $15.47 when I recommended the stock three months ago. If you got into the stock back then you would still be receiving over a 10% yield. Last year I had several high flyers but not all of them stayed up so I am watching Precision closely for signs of weakness or changes in the business.
Imagine a large recession in which one of the key energy components almost doubles in price. The tab for natural gas is up by almost double since last summer. That is the same natural gas which most people use to heat their homes. Being cold is not a lot of fun.
According toThe Wall Street Journal, "Prices in the U.S. have risen 93% since late August as power-hungry nations like South Korea and Japan compete in a global natural-gas market."
Who says inflation is not a major threat to the US economy? Add to the natural gas spike the rising cost of oil which has pushed gasoline to all-time highs. Add to that increasing food prices due to the bump up in the price of grains such as wheat and corn. Those commodities are being used to product the alternate energy source ethanol.
The picture complicates the job that the Fed and Treasury have to do. Lowering interest rates often increases the ability of businesses and consumers to spend. That, in turn, pushes inflation higher. Not lowering rates could exacerbate the credit crisis and lead to more home and credit card defaults.
There is one silver lining to the cloud. Banks are not passing lower rates on to customers. They are hording the cash that they get from the Fed. It is an ugly reality, but consumers and small businesses do not have access to the capital which they would need to start spending money again.
None of that solves the natural gas problem per se, but it could mean that people will cut back a bit on how warm they keep their homes. That, at least, would be a start.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN) is an oil/natural gas exploration company, with operations in the U.S., Canada, and abroad.
Readers of this space know that one argument forwarded here is that in the era of elevated energy prices, oil/natural gas companies are likely to remain promising plays for the foreseeable future, baring the discovery of a cheap, widely-available, alternative energy. And among oil/natural gas companies, Devon Energy is worth an evaluation.
Analysts like DVN's sizable proved oil/gas reserves of 2.34 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Production volume should increase 4-5% in 2007 and 7-11% in 2008. Analysts also like Devon's strategy decision to sell international assets with lower growth prospects. Meanwhile, the company's overall costs remain reasonable.
Oil plummeted $2.38 to $89.52 in early trading Wednesday after the U.S. Energy Information Agency announced that weekly crude oil inventories rose 4.3 million barrels to 287.1 million barrels, well above the 1.25 million barrel increase consensus estimate.
However, despite the prospect of a U.S. recession that could lower oil demand, the International Energy Agency maintained its 2008 global oil demand forecast at 87.8 million barrels per day, a 2.3% increase from 2007, the organization announced Wednesday in a statement.
Still, the IEA qualified its 2008 oil demand projection by saying the estimate would be adjusted downward if evidence indicated the U.S. economy continues to slow.
The secular growth trends in oil and gas services and infrastructure continue, and a company well-positioned in these two promising sectors, and by extension, worth a review, is Jacobs Engineering Group.
Jacobs Engineering Group (NYSE: JEC) is a diversified engineering/professional technical services company providing services to the chemical, petroleum, pharmaceutical and biotech sectors. The company also has aerospace and defense contracts with the U.S. government.
Analysts expect 14-20% revenue growth for F2008 on strong upstream oil/gas and downstream petroleum refining work. Public transportation infrastructure work also remains solid.
Analysts also like JEC's growth opportunities for chemical projects in the Middle East and Europe. Further, overall margins are expected to improve. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for JEC are: $2.99/$3.59.
When one can combine systems technology and oil services, that company is worth an evaluation, and FMC Technologies fits the bill.
FMC Technologies (NYSE: FTI) designs and manufactures services, technology systems and products for energy systems, food operations, and airport systems.
Analysts really like FTI's energy systems business, which helps companies control the flow of oil/gas producing wells, among other tasks. As of September 2007, FTI had an energy systems order backlog of $3.3 billion, up more than 65% from a year earlier.
The risks? Analysts are keeping an eye on subsea drilling activity. Also, a sustained, substantial drop in oil's price will no doubt affect oil/natural gas companies' service budgets, and FTI's operations.
The First Call mean rating for FTI is: Hold. [22 firms.] Mean 2008 target: $64.00. [high: $80, low: $47.]
Stock Analysis: FMC Technologies is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than two years should be rewarded from FTI's shares. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $36.
DISCLOSURE: Joseph Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.
It's a reality of the era of elevated energy prices that the oil/natural gas services sector is likely to remain strong for the foreseeable future, baring the discovery of a cheap, widely-available alternative energy. And among oil/natural gas services companies, Transocean (NYSE: RIG) is a standout.
Transocean offers deepwater drilling services in the world's major offshore oil-producing regions, including Africa, Asia, Brazil, Canada, India, Middle East, Gulf of Mexico, and the North Sea.
In general, analysts see RIG generating a 18%-25% total return on equity for 2007-2009, with an upside possible, given the company's strong position in deepwater drilling, which offers a higher return potential than shallow water drilling. And currently, it looks like a 2008 upside is in sight for Transocean: of the company's 82 offshore rigs, only seven have not been committed for 2008. Further, given a capacity shortage sector-wide, dayrates have increase substantially, and look for RIG's pricing power to continue past 2009. (RIG's dayrate for 2006 increased 35% to $142,000 and its rig utilization rate improved 5% in 2006.) The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for RIG are $8.01/$11.32.
The risks? RIG's dayrate increases could slow if major oil companies begin to reduce exploration budgets. A U.S. recession could also substantially decease home building, which could lower the demand for oil.
The First Call mean rating for RIG is: Buy. [34 firms.] Mean 2007 target: $131.00. [high: $168, low: $89.] Transocean's share were down $2.04 to $127.60 in Wednesday afternoon trading, but view that dip as a buying opportunity, as it's reasonable to assume that the industrialized nations will need oil services companies for a few years, to say the least.
Stock Analysis: Transocean is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than 1 year should be rewarded from RIG's shares. Sell / Stop Loss: $84.
"Analogous actions by the Soviet Union, when it deployed missiles in Cuba, prompted the 'Caribbean crisis,'" Russian President Vladimir Putin said Friday, using the Russian term for the Cuban Missile Crisis, in reference to the United States' Europe-based missile defense plan.
Putin's statement that U.S. plans to put a Europe missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic can perhaps be best interpreted as a rhetorical overstatement before Putin negotiates new economic and political agreements with the West, particularly with Europe.
Russia's oil and natural gas resources, foreign currency reserves, commercial development and +5% annual GDP growth rate have enhanced the nation's negotiating stance, on both economic and geostrategic issues. Sensing his stronger hand, Putin has used the increased leverage to propose, among other measures, European economic/commercial agreements that would be more favorable to Russia, while also making clear that international political agreements among the U.S., Europe and Russia on such issues as the Iraq War, Iran nuclear technology -- and a potential European missile shield -- would also reflect Russia's concerns.
Just over a year ago, I blogged that CNX Gas (NYSE: CXG), a natural gas exploration, development and production company that liberates the methane in coal beds and develops it into natural gas, was a stock pick with a strong future.
The release of methane from coal mines began as a safety measure back in the early 1980s. However, mining companies soon realized that money could be made from this coalbed methane. CNX Gas is one of the companies to tap this gas resource. It has enormous coalbed methane reserves, primarily in Appalachia , and the reserve life of its proved reserves is nearly 22 years.
At the time of my earlier blog, CNX Gas had recently split off from CONSOL Energy, a coal-mining company (which still owns over 80% of CNX's stock), and was going like gangbusters. In 2005, it saw 50% growth over 2004, and the first quarter of 2006 showed a 40% growth over the first quarter of 2005. CNX's pre-tax and net profit margins were twice as high as the industry average.
At the time, it was trading in the low $20s, and I recommended it was a good buy. Today, it is trading just over $30 and still presents a good buy, in my opinion. I'm not alone. A Bank of Montreal report issued this week notes that CNX is focused on evaluating 93% of its unevaluated reserves, and once the Rockies Express pipeline comes online, it will likely be the gas producer with the lowest prices in the country. It is aiming for 15% production growth in 2008, and analysts are confident that CNX is on track. So am I.
Type of stock: A natural gas exploration, development and production company that also converts coalbed methane to natural gas, with extensive proven (and unproven) reserves and a continuing record of extraordinary growth.
Price target: The Bank of Montreal report puts the target price at $37. Currently trading nearly at $31, I could see CXG hitting $40 in a year.
Office Depot, Inc. (NYSE: ODP) had 1,186 retail stores in North America and another 369 stores owned, licensed or franchised in other parts of the world as of June 30th.
Smith Barney says "shares of ODP appear undervalued but few data points loom in the next quarter or two to drive them higher." ODP is expected to report earnings per share (EPS) in late October. ODP January option implied volatility of 43 is above its 26-week average of 33 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.
Baker Hughes Incorporated (NYSE: BHI) is engaged in the oilfield service sector. BHI recently up $1.01 to $92.12.
BHI has a market cap of $29.5 billion with long term debt of $1 billion. BHI is expected to report EPS on October 26th. BHI reported on October 8th its September rig count rose to 1,032 from 1,009 in August 2007. BHI November 95 calls have traded 59 times on contract volume 2,878 contracts, above its open interest of 834 contracts. BHI November 100 calls have traded 170 times on contract volume 18,641 contracts above its open interest of 480 contracts. BHI November option implied volatility of 34 is near its 26-week average of 30 according to Track Data, suggesting slightly larger risk.
Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says there's a big disconnect between the trade, orchestrated by the funds, and the real-world demand. 
It was only a few weeks ago I was thinking, how much higher can this one go but sure enough, 
Imagine a large recession in which one of the key energy components almost doubles in price. The tab for natural gas is up by almost double since last summer. That is the same natural gas which most people use to heat their homes. Being cold is not a lot of fun.
The secular growth trends in oil and gas services and infrastructure continue, and a company well-positioned in these two promising sectors, and by extension, worth a review, is Jacobs Engineering Group.
"Analogous actions by the Soviet Union, when it deployed missiles in Cuba, prompted the 'Caribbean crisis,'" 
Just over a year ago, I blogged that 
Office Depot, Inc.
The week in preview: Chicken soup (or a doughnut) for the recession-weary soul?
Comfort Zone Investing: Oil's down, which is a start, but not good enough
Stocks have their worst week in six years
