The new Neiman Marcus Christmas Book looks a bit different this year. Yes, it's still geared toward the typical Neiman clientele, but it reflects the fact that the usual customers may not be doing as well -- or spending as much -- this year as they did last year. The retailer is facing the fact that it will have to sell lower-priced items this Christmas, because that's what the public will have to buy (even the wealthy corner of the public).

Close to half the gifts listed in the 83rd edition of the Neiman Christmas catalog cost less than $250, and some of them are actually practical (though a bit pricey for most people). In the past, the number of gifts at this price-point would be in the 30% to 40% range.

Bain & Co., a leading consulting firm, estimates that luxury goods sales will fall 20% in the first half of 2009 before stabilizing in the second half. In all, Bain expects luxury goods sales will fall 10% for the year. In October, Bain was forecasting a drop of just 7%, but conditions have deteriorated quite a bit since then.

The Wall Street Journal reports (subscription required) that "The U.S., which accounts for roughly a third of luxury-goods sales, is one of the worst-hit markets. Bain expects U.S. sales of high-end clothing, accessories, tableware, cosmetics and jewelry will drop by 15% this year. That compares to expected sales declines of about 10% in both Europe and Japan."

As I've posted, Tuesday's voting results repudiate the idea that government of the rich for the rich will benefit everyone. Thursday's retail sales reports indicate that this concept fails just as badly when the economy is doing "well" as when it collapses.

How so? Despite Sarah Palin's $150,000 plus shopping spree, the ultimate luxury store Neiman Marcus saw its sales drop 28% in October compared with the same month last year. What is happening is that trickle down economics, which never worked when the government reported economic growth -- thanks to declining median incomes and rising costs --, is now failing even more catastrophically during the collapse. Simply put, the rich are getting poorer and the middle class are barely able to keep a roof over their heads.

Not surprisingly, this is working out well for Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) whose sales are rising as more and more as people who aspired to shop at Neiman Marcus take advantage of Wal-Mart's low prices. How disappointed Wal-Mart must be with the election result; it encouraged its managers and employees to oppose Obama. And despite that misguided effort, Wal-Mart is now benefiting handily from the economic collapse.

This post is one in a series on prominent company nicknames. See all 25, and share your thoughts and memories about Needless Markup below in the comments.

Neiman Marcus may be the most successful upscale retail department chain that selected shoppers love to hold a grudge against.

The chain caters to primarily female, upper-income and upper-middle shoppers, and features designer lines that rival boutique (and beyond) price levels.

Further, while some of the products are decidedly exclusive, some are not or appear to not be, according to shoppers, but the prices of these items remain in the stratosphere, and it is for this reason that the store was tagged with the nickname "Needless Markup."

Here's a classic example. About a year ago Marie Lang, sister of yours truly, was searching for a leather shoulder bag. She found a medium brown, designer bag she liked for $1,200 at Neiman Marcus. However, being a discerning/critical comparison shopper, Marie of course took a few days to scout the competition.

The result? She found a comparable shoulder bag at Bloomingdale's for $595. Had she been willing to take a slightly smaller bag, she could have secured one for $395.

For anybody who's been following the downfall of Sharper Image, there seems to be a pretty obvious lesson: when people are worrying about the rising cost of food and are scrimping to fill their gas tanks, high-priced doodads and assorted electronic gewgaws are the first things to go. The next things, of course, are luxury goods.

Saks Fifth Avenue (NYSE: SKS)and Neiman-Marcus, two of the bigger high-end retailers, reported massive quarterly profit gains in the end of 2007, but are now acknowledging that their gains have reduced considerably in 2008. Obviously, part of this is the standard post-Christmas drop, but there has also been a significant slowdown in year-to-year growth. In 2008, Saks is anticipating a minor increase over 2007's sales, but a slight decrease in gross margin.

Part of this is due to a reduction in expenditures by "aspirational shoppers," or people who can't really afford super-luxe items, but occasionally buy them anyway. What's particularly interesting, though, is that super-rich customers are also cutting back on their purchases, a trend that some analysts attribute to a contagious feeling of economic worry. In other words, the overall belief that the economy is approaching a recession is reducing spending even among people for whom the economic slowdown isn't a pressing concern. In light of this trend, Saks' stock price has dropped from almost $21 in the beginning of the year to under $13.

In this context, it looks like the next year will be tough for manufacturers and importers of high-end luxury items. After all, if the people who can actually pay top dollar are cutting back, what will happen to the people for whom luxuries are a splurge?

True Religion Apparel (NASDAQ: TRLG) is one of those companies that has a core cult following of investors, and it nearly defies logic. The company sells $200 and $300 blue jeans, among other apparel, has its own stores and also sells through key retailers like Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN), Neiman Marcus, Barneys, and other upscale retailers.

Shares are up big today, at $22.53 as of 10:20, and this more than 10% post-earnings move could get the stock within striking distance of its all-time highs from 2006. The company posted $0.21 net and $0.25 non-GAAP EPS on revenues of $35.7 million. Analysts were looking for $0.26 non-GAAP EPS and $35.7 million in revenues, according to First Call.

The company plans to add to its eight branded stores, increasing to fifteen stores by year end. The company is maintaining strong guidance for 2007, with $1.24 to $1.27 EPS and maintained about $167 million in revenue projections. First Call has estimates of $1.25 EPS and $166 million in revenues. This has been a stock that many short sellers have attacked, because after all, it sells $300 jeans.

This one has been shocking when you consider what the company does. It has a $500 million market cap. It has seen management infighting over a divorce that resulted in large share sales. Many on Wall Street think it is a prime short sale candidate. It hasn't been able to find a buyer. And it sells $300 jeans. Yet here it is, up over 10% and close to a year-high again.

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Analysts are expecting Jones Apparel Group Inc (NYSE: JNY) to announce a sale of upscale fashion retail chain Barneys New York any minute now. Sources have indicated Jones CEO Peter Boneparth is looking to sell the chain because of a decline in the company's stock price -- shares closed yesterday at $28.36, while trading in January for over $35. Additionally, having failed to sell the entire company nearly a year ago, Mr. Boneparth may be looking to take advantage of the highly competitive market for luxury goods.

Because of the desire for luxury goods, Barneys has been sought after by publicly-traded companies as well as private-equity groups. There is strong market speculation that Istithmar, the investment arm of the Dubai government, could be the victor in the race for Barneys. Istithmar has a global real estate portfolio valued around $7 billion, including owning apparel retailer Loehmann's Holdings, and has been in hot pursuit of other U.S. properties over the past year. Sources close to the matter believe Istithmar could offer around $825 million for Barneys.

In addition to Istithmar, rumors swirled recently that Neiman Marcus and Nordstrom Inc (NYSE: JWN) had been interested in the chain and considered making bids around in the $800 million to $850 million range price, but dropped out when both companies believed the price would escalate too high, perhaps as far as $1.4 billion.

A sale of Barneys would likely come, as the New York Times reported, as a "partial victory" for Mr. Boneparth. He had been oft criticized that he paid too high a price in 2004 for the chain, but may have the last laugh if the sale price turns out to be nearly twice as high.

According to a story in Women's Wear Daily, it looks like Neiman Marcus' private equity owners -- Texas Pacific Group (TPG) and Warburg Pincus -- are considering an IPO of the firm. They bought out the company back in 2005.

The IPO could come as early as this summer, although it's more likely to be early next year.

Neiman Marcus has been posting strong results lately. In the fiscal second quarter, sales increased 8.5% to $1.3 billion and operating earnings spiked from $69.7 million to $127.8 million. The company plans to expand the number of its stores to 50-52 by 2010, up from 44. Neiman has also been building out clearance centers, called Last Call.

There has been a drought in retail IPOs. But in light of TPG's highly successful IPO of J. Crew (NYSE: JCG), there's likely to be some interest in a Neiman Marcus offering.

For more news & views about private equity, please see BloggingBuyouts.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and the EDGAR-Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements.