During the roaring 1990s, it was called 'merger Monday' -- due to the plethora of corporate mergers announced on the day, driven by the robust U.S. economy.

In the current sluggish (or perhaps worse) U.S. economy, it's becoming known as 'morbid Monday' -- due to the spate of unpleasant predictions publicized on the day.

Oppenheimer analyst Meredith Whitney filled the August 4 installment of the latter by predicting that housing prices will fall more than 30% and banks will remain reluctant to lend until the credit crisis wanes, CNBC reported Monday.

To be sure, the housing sector is a jumbled, uncertain morass, so in order to provide some clarity on the sector (and to either confirm / refute several conventional wisdom points), BloggingStocks Monday corralled economists Peter Dawson and David H. Wang.

Point 1: Those states hardest hit by the housing sector, California, Florida, Nevada, will be the first to recover.

Dawson: Not true. Wang: Most un-true.

"You may find a $300,000 or $350,000 bargain in California or Florida, but understand that five years down the road that home may be roughly the same price in real terms, after inflation," Wang said. "Job creation in an area will determine which way house prices are going in a region in the years ahead, much more than how bad the local housing market is now."

I don't know about you, but I'm tired of watching all the red on the screen. Everyday we're faced with doomsday predictions facing the real estate market, the credit crunch, rising inflation, natural disasters, and my favorite, the Iranian threat facing the entire world.

Bloomberg is out with a story this morning that details the soaring arson rate in foreclosed homes around the U.S. As foreclosed homes are vacated, arson rates are on the rise. Not surprisingly, the highest arson rates are in the states with the highest foreclosure rates.

According to Bloomberg, "Last year, fires in vacant Nevada buildings increased 4 percent from a year earlier." Local officials think that number may grow this year. Bloomerg further states, "The state had the worst foreclosure rate in the U.S. during the first quarter, with one filing for every 54 households, according to data compiled by RealtyTrac Inc. The national rate was one filing per 194 households, analysts at the Irvine, California company said."

How can investors play this without taking out policies on their neighbors' houses? Investors may want to look at Tyco International (NYSE: TYC). Yes, that same company that had corporate execs dipping both hands into the cookie jar and spending on lavish parties, apartments, umbrella stands -- all during the excesses of the late 1990's. Well, the company is a leader in Fire and Safety products: everything from sprinkler systems in office buildings to its ADT division, a leading alarm monitoring firm.

The stock hasn't done much after the company broke itself up into three separate, publicly traded companies. It's pretty diversified in its products and does have a lot of exposure to the building industry -- so, a prolonged downturn in the housing industry could affect the firm. But it's got some world class products, a global sales and marketing infrastructure and is diversified in its businesses to capture global growth.

Hopefully, it won't crash and burn like the foreclosed, U.S. homeowner.

Zack Miller is the managing editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund. Author is long TYC stock.

We have all heard of bus tours showcasing the homes of the rich and famous ... but the recent credit crunch that has spread across America has led to another sort of bus tour: the Foreclosure Bus Tour. That's right, potential home buyers looking to grab up a piece of Orlando, Florida real estate can now take a six-hour bus tour featuring various homes that have been foreclosed in the area.

It's no secret that foreclosures have been on the rise over the past year to alarming levels, but the Foreclosure Bus Tour is a symbol of just how bad things have become. The cost of the tour was $45 per person ($65 per couple) and included a continental breakfast and lunch at Applebee's. In addition to the food, the potential buyers were also given information on the homes, as well as some important teaching lessons that any potential home buyer could benefit from.

All in all, it seems like a decent way to go out and look at a whole bunch of properties all at once (the tour featured seven different available properties). At each stop the potential buyers got first hand access to a home inspector who walked them through the house, and between stops they were able to chat with a mortgage broker. The tour also had lawyers on hand to discuss any legal questions that came up during the trip. Not too bad for $45.

[Note: This is the second of a two-part series on the race for the Democratic Party's nomination for president of the United States. Read part one: Obama's New Hampshire strength highlights Clinton's vulnerablity]

Clinton's mistakes

Why didn't Clinton win by a bigger margin in the New Hampshire primary? The main reason was a misguided campaign strategy that presented her in too many town meetings and gymnasium forums, and not enough as a concerned, positive, relating, trustworthy leader and as a real person. Clinton has never been accused of not being intelligent or organized or professional: what she has been accused of is lacking that "likability" and "press the flesh" quality that every modern presidential candidate -- and every president -- must display.

Ironically, Hillary Clinton's campaign strategy in Iowa and New Hampshire departed from President Bill Clinton's winning presidential campaign strategy. What was an example of President Clinton's positive vibe? During his campaigns, when Bill Clinton arrived at a location for a speech and there were 400 people lined up outside of the hall, who couldn't get in, waiting to see the candidate, Bill Clinton wanted to shake the hands of all 400 people outside. No joke. Clinton would arrive one hour, two hours late for an event, if it meant he could shake hands and make positive, personal contact with as many people as possible. Hillary Clinton must do the same: she must be real, show that she cares, and show that's she's human, just like everybody else. That's a big part of what Hillary Clinton must do to move forward and win the Democratic Party's nomination.

There's an old political adage that goes, "Regarding the nomination process, Republicans fall in line, Democrats fall in love." Tuesday's New Hampshire primary provided ample evidence of the above, for each party.
Sen. Barack Obama's (D-IL) strong showing instantaneously catapults him to formidable contender status in the Democratic race. His performance also suggests -- and we won't know this empirically until survey research has been analyzed -- that he has expanded the electorate. Obama increased voter turnout particularly, and unexpectedly, among voters ages 18-21. This age group has had the lowest turnout rate of any age group in primaries and presidential elections since 1952 when political scientists began keeping statistics.

Obama's appeal among independents was also high, and -- also troubling for the campaign of Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) -- his appeal among Democratic Party-affiliated voters was much stronger than expected. Furthermore, African-American voters -- although not a major factor in New Hampshire -- now appear to be shifting decidedly in his direction nationally, a big change from the previously overwhelming support they gave to Clinton as late as this summer. As a result of the latter, look for the Clinton camp to face a markedly tougher fight in the South Carolina primary, which is the next hurdle, along with Nevada, before Tsunami Tuesday (formerly called Super Tuesday), on February 5.

Population growth has slowed in the prior housing boom states of Arizona, Florida and Nevada, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday [subscription required], citing U.S. Census Bureau data for the 12 months ended July 1, 2007.

Further, the U.S. Census Bureau's report continued to confirm a decades-long trend of U.S. population shift from the Northeast and Midwest to the West and South.

Florida, arguably the state that's been hardest hit by the housing slump, experienced the largest decline in population growth, The Journal reported. Florida's population increased by 35,301, or 1%, during the 12-month period, compared to an increase of 134,798 during the previous 12-month period.

Even people who don't plan to either buy or sell a home are going to be hurt by the decline in the real estate market.

As the New York Times notes, growth in state tax revenues has slowed and in some cases dropped below projections this year. That's bad news in areas where property tax reform is a big political issue such as my homestate of New Jersey, which has the highest property taxes in the country.

New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine, a former Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) chairman, has said that the state could face a $2.5 billion deficit by 2008. Among the ideas being considered to close the gap is a sale or lease of the Turnpike and the Lottery.

We New Jerseyeans are getting some property tax relief. A recently passed law will cut proprty taxes by 20 percent and cap tax increases at 4 percent. Still, the Associated Press points out that New Jersey taxes average $6,390, twice the national average.

I'm not expecting more relief from Trenton any time soon.

In fact, housing sales fell in February to their lowest rate in seven years, so people in other parts of the country shouldn't expect big tax cuts either.

States such as Arizona, Nevada, Florida and California, which especially benefited from the real estate boom, are expected to be hit especially hard by the slowdown in the real estate market, the Times said.

Remember, any short fall in the money that the states collect is going to have to come somewhere. Think about that when you file your taxes this year.

Late last October, my husband and I reveled in St. Louis with hundreds of thousands of Cardinals fans as our team claimed the World Series title for the first time since 1982. We greeted dozens of strangers with high-fives and hugs. We stumbled through the downtown city streets, late into the night, propelled by an overwhelming sense of revelry and camaraderie. We had no idea, of course, that we were acting so carefree in a city that was about to be named the most dangerous in the U.S.

So I was relieved this morning when Missouri failed to make AOL Money & Finance's list of the 12 most dangerous states. This means, of course, that our crime rate is neatly contained within the Gateway City, which is where I currently reside. Not ideal, but we have to take our victories when we can.

While it doesn't have the highest rate of murders, burglary, or other violent crime, Nevada has high enough rankings across the board to earn it the number-one spot. Number two is New Mexico, which ranks second in the U.S. for rape, assault, and burglary offenses, and number three is Arizona. The remaining top 12 breaks down as follows: