U.S. stock futures are higher Wednesday morning as investors await new-home sales data. Crude oil prices surged above $105 a barrel. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 27 points to 11,982.00 and S&P 500 index futures rose 3.30 points to 1,291.60. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 rose 1 point to 2,258.25.

Stocks closed lower on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 0.15% to 12,018.63, the S&P 500 index falling 0.36% to 1,294 and the Nasdaq 100 index declining 0.31% to 2,684.

Data on February new home sales will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will deliver a speech at the Independent Community Bankers of America National Convention.

U.S. stock futures are higher this morning, following President Barack Obama's State of the Union speech. Investors are awaiting earnings reports and a monetary policy announcement by the Federal Reserve. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 35 points to 11,957.00 and S&P 500 futures rose 5.60 points to 1,293.30. Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 9 points at 2,310.25.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 3.33 points or less than 0.1% yesterday.

Data on December new-home sales will be released at 10 a.m. ET. The latest statement from the Fed is due at 2:15 p.m. ET.

With earnings season in full swing, the FOMC meeting on interest rates, the GDP estimate, and housing numbers due out, the coming week is shaping up to be a busy one. So here's a peek at what's on the economic calendar.

Monday

Quarterly reports from American Express (AXP) and McDonald's (MCD) will highlight Monday. Amgen (AMGN), CSX (CSX), Halliburton (HAL) and Texas Instruments (TXN) are also expected to report strong earnings results.

Housing steps into the spotlight again this coming week. The release of the National Association of Homebuilders Housing Market Index starts out the week on Monday morning. Then on Tuesday morning, look for housing starts data from August. Release of the July FHFA House Price Index is scheduled for Wednesday. And numbers for existing home sales and for new home sales in August are due out Thursday and Friday, respectively. Overall, the housing market is expected to have continued to lose momentum in August, but less dramatically than in July.

Also on the economic calendar this week: Tuesday's FOMC meeting on interest rates, the Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators Index for August on Thursday, initial jobless claims for last week, and durable goods orders data for August on Friday. No significant changes from the Fed are anticipated, but the leading economic indicators may rise a bit.

Wednesday morning got off to a slow start for the market as a whole, and the July home sales report didn't going to help matters much. According to the Commerce Department, new home sales plummeted 12.4% in July compared to June.

The drop brings the seasonally adjusted annual sales pace to 276,600, far short of the expected pace of 330,000. Not only is this pace short of the expected result, but it is the slowest pace on record, which dates back to 1963.

Most of the S&P 500 companies have already reported earnings results for the most recent quarter. But scheduled to release their results this week are Medtronic (MDT) and Novell (NOVL), which analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect to post earnings per share (EPS) about same as last year, as well as JDS Uniphase (JDSU), Patterson Companies (PDCO) and Tiffany & Co. (TIF), for which analysts foresee year-over-year earnings growth. Of these, the expectations are highest for Tiffany.

During the three months that ended in July, Tiffany launched an iPhone app and increased its quarterly dividend. Analysts expect the New York-based specialty retailer to report that earnings per share came to 53 cents, a 26.4% increase from a year earlier. Second-quarter revenue is expected to have grown 12.8% to $690.8 million. So far, analysts predict full-year earnings of $2.61 per share (+22.9%) on $3.0 billion (+11.8%) in revenue. Earnings results topped consensus estimates in four of the past five quarters, by 11 cents per share in the first quarter.

If you sense that the U.S. stock market recently seems to trade up one day on a good data point, then trade down the next, when a negative data point is released, you're not the only one.

Further, look for the Dow to remain range-bound, with rallies and pull-backs containing little conviction, until the U.S. economic outlook has been clarified.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke perhaps best summarized the U.S. economic outlook when he termed it "unusually uncertain." Don't misunderstand: The U.S. economy continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace in the second quarter, but conflicting data regarding what's next abounds.

The housing market is schizophrenic. Yesterday, existing home sales surged to their highest level in nearly three years.

Today, the Commerce Department reported that new home sales plunged to a seven-month low. The drop was a whopping 11.3%, the biggest decline since January, to 355,000 units.

There is a bit of good news in that the median price of new homes rose by 3.8% to $217,400.

Now this is a real surprise, the good kind.New home sales surged 11% in the past month, to a seasonally adjusted rate of 384,000, according to the Wall Street Journal(subscription required).

The Commerce Department reported that year over year, sales are still down 21.3%. The median price was $206,000 in June, down 12% from $234,000 in June 2008.

The economy is sending mixed signals right now.

Unemployment is up, and consumer sentiment is down. Plenty of companies are posting profits, but they're taking advantage of lower expectations and cost-cutting rather than revenue growth from an economic recovery. Rents are under pressure – both residential and commercial.

Given last week's news that new home sales have plunged and that new home prices continue to fall, what is Wall Street expecting from homebuilders Centex Corp. (NYSE: CTX), Pulte Homes Inc. (NYSE: PHM), and DR Horton Inc. (NYSE: DHI) when they report quarterly results this week?

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters anticipate that Dallas-based Centex will report that it narrowed its net loss in its fiscal third quarter to $3.27 per share. In the same period of last year, the loss was $7.94 per share. Revenue in the third quarter is expected to total $895.3 million, down 53.0% from last year. For the full year, the loss is expected to reach $7.36 per share on revenue of $4.0 billion, which compares to a $21.69 per share loss on $8.3 billion in sales in 2008. Centex has posted bigger-than-expected losses in the past five quarters. So the consensus recommendation of analysts remains to hold CTX, though the long-range EPS growth forecast is 9.0%. The share price has fallen 20.0% just since the beginning of the year, and it is 70.7% lower than it was a year ago. Centex suspended its quarterly dividends back in October.

Sales of new homes fell by 37.8 percent from 2007 sales. Total sales in 2008 were 482,000 compared to 776,000 (the total sold in 2007), according to Mission Residential. The median new home price dropped by 9.3 on a a year-over-year basis.

These numbers may actually be skewed higher because the monthly sales data does not reflect cancellations, which means sales are probably lower and actual inventories higher. Because of these adjustments the actual supply on the market jumped to 12.9 months in December. Don't expect home builder stocks to recover any time soon.

U.S. new home sales fell 5.3% to a seasonally adjusted, annualized pace of 433,000 in October -- the lowest annualized level since 1991, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Wednesday (pdf).

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected October new home sales to register a 450,000 annualized rate.

Further, new home sales are down 40.1% compared to a year ago. In 2007, 776,000 new homes were sold, compared to 1.05 million in 2006. And the median sales price for a new house decreased to $218,000 in October, a drop of 7% in the past 12 months.

Sales fell in two regions -- declining 18% in the West and 6% in the South. Sales rose 22.6% in the Northeast and 6% in the Midwest.

One bright spot: inventories declined 8% in October to 381,000 units, a roughly 11-month supply at the current sales pace. Inventories have now declined 25.7% in the past year, the largest decline since the federal government started tracking data in 1963.

October data is mixed

Economist Peter Dawson called the October new home sales stats a smorgasbord of data, some positive, some negative.

"We did see a substantial decline in inventories, so that's a positive. The problem is, the rate of new home sales is now so low, due to the recession and credit crunch, that it's still going to take a long time to work off inventories, which are still very high at 11 months," Dawson said.

New home sales in the U.S. fell 2.5% to a seasonally adjusted, annualized pace of 512,000 in May, with sales in the Western U.S. plunging to a 26-year low, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Wednesday (pdf).

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected May new home sales to register a 515,000 annualized rate.

Sales are still down about 40% compared to a year ago. In 2007, 776,000 new homes were sold, compared to 1.05 million in 2006.

Meanwhile, inventories rose to a 10.9-month supply in May at the current sales pace, compared to a 10.6-month supply in April. A typical, healthy housing market has a three to four month supply of homes for sale.

Sales fell in three regions: 11.6% in the West, 7.9% in the Northeast, and 5.1% in the Midwest. Sales rose a scant 0.4% in the South. Further, the West's 114,000 annualized sales pace was that region's slowest sales pace in 26 years.

The nearly always-on-the-mark Bloomberg News columnist Caroline Baum reminds investors/traders -- and potential home buyers -- that one should not jump into summer by jumping into a home purchase (if you can avoid it).

Baum notes that one has to view April's 6.3% increase in existing home sales in the proper context: housing has been down so much and for so long that every incremental pop up looks like a housing sector recovery. It isn't.

New and existing home sales peaked in July 2005 and September 2005, respectively, but housing starts didn't until January 2006. The result? A massive inventory build.

A record housing recession

Single-family starts are down 63% from their January 2006 peak, easily 'topping' peak-to-trough declines of 38% in 1973-75, and 57% in 1984-1991, and approaching the 65% slide in the housing recession of 1977-1981, Baum says.