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Barack Obama is odds-on favorite to win Democratic nomination

Jonathan Berr — Mon, 07 Jan 2008 16:47:00 EST

Filed under: Economic Data, Politics, Presidential Elections

Barack Obama is the odds-on favorite -- for now -- to win both tomorrow's New Hampshire primary and the Democratic presidential nomination, according to traders at Dublin-based Trade Exchange Network Co., where people can buy and sell "shares" in political events.

The Illinois senator, who upset Hilary Clinton in last week's Iowa caucuses, stands a good chance of repeating his success in tomorrow's New Hampshire primary. The Trade Exchange's Intrade system shows Obama with a 90% change of winning the New Hampshire primary, to Clinton's 8.7% and John Edwards' 0.6%. Obama is being given a 66% chance of winning the nomination, compared with 32% for Hillary Clinton and 3% for John Edwards.

On the Republican side, traders are expecting John McCain to have an easy time beating back former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, with an 82% chance of victory to Romney's 14%, in line with conventional wisdom. Chances for Iowa caucus winner Mike Huckabee and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani appear somewhere between slim and none. McCain retains the edge to win the nomination, with a 4 percentage point lead on Giuliani and double-digit leads over the remaining candidates, online traders say.

Though the data is interesting, people should take it with a grain of salt -- no make that a truckload of salt. The political winds blow in many different directions as primary season heats up. Remember, it wasn't that long ago that pundits expected Clinton and McCain to win their respective primaries easily.

Barack Obama is odds-on favorite to win Democratic nomination originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 07 Jan 2008 16:47:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Iowa? New Hampshire? Why not New Jersey?

Jonathan Berr — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 15:50:00 EST

Filed under: Economic Data, Politics, Presidential Elections

Let this be the last Iowa caucus that matters. Ditto for the New Hampshire primary. It is simply insane that two states that are among the least representative of America have so much say over who is elected president. That power should be given to the only state that really matters: New Jersey.

Instead of criss-crossing the cornfields of Iowa and the hamlets of New Hampshire, candidates should be getting to know the state I call home. They should marvel at the farm land of Salem County, Atlantic City's casinos and the beaches of Cape May. Imagine what the potential leaders of the free world can learn from listening to folks eating breakfast at a Jersey diner, or wandering the highways of South Jersey trying to make a left turn. Let them try and find a spot in a New Jersey Transit parking lot after 7 a.m., and take a gander at a sky-high property tax bill.

New Jersey also is among the most densely populated states, with pockets of enormous wealth (Bergen County near New York City) and extreme poverty (Camden, near Philadelphia). There's the beauty of Barnegat and the ugliness of Elizabeth. Politicians of both parties could learn quite a bit from the Garden State.

But my pleas will fall on deaf ears. We Americans pick a president with less sophistication than most high school seniors chose the king and queen of their proms. Maybe one day it will change, but I doubt it.

Until then, the rest of the country is going to have to take the hand-me-downs left to us by an antiquated electoral system in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Iowa? New Hampshire? Why not New Jersey? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 03 Jan 2008 15:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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