We now own Newcastle Investment Corp. (NYSE: NCT), a CMBS lender and REIT paying about a 26% yield in several portfolios. It does not own real estate, instead it holds loans on nonresidential properties.

NCT is on record to fully fund its dividend and anticipates one billion dollars in loans to be paid off in the coming year. It is one of my 8 for 2008. See original full story: Chasing Value: Newcastle's 22% yield will reward patience.

The stock has lost two thirds of its value from its 52-week high and closed at $11.08 yesterday down further from my initial buy-in. The stock is down because of investors fears about the real estate values supporting the loans and the resemblance to residential mortgage brokers and lenders that have collapsed or suffered great losses. Neither of these issues are of concern to me. I am active in the commercial real estate markets and we have not seen appreciable reductions in the value of existing commercial and industrial property.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Newcastle managed by Fortress, a few more thoughts

Chasing Value: Newcastle managed by Fortress, a few more thoughts originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 15 Feb 2008 14:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The price-to-cash flow ratio has been repeatedly promoted in various publications as one of the more important metrics to consider when evaluating a stock to buy. Apparently over long periods of time it is more telling than the often quoted price-to-earnings ratio. I have read that cash flow is a key metric that "my pal Warren" looks at for Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) investments.

Here are the figures for the Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008 in order from highest to lowest P/CF. The 12/28/08 starting stock price, yesterday's closing price and the current P/CF for the most recent fiscal year (MRFY) are listed. Only two stocks are up, while six are down.

Continue reading Chasing Value: BG, HNP, LTR, VLO, NCT price-to-cash flow

Chasing Value: BG, HNP, LTR, VLO, NCT price-to-cash flow originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 15 Jan 2008 15:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Among my stock picks this year, Newcastle Investment Corp (NYSE: NCT) may seem to have the greatest risk, but it is a calculated risk and has the potential of very high rewards. It has lost two-thirds of its value since the first quarter of 2007 and I believe has the potential to double if it can just tread water for a couple of quarters. The reason the dividend is so high is that the price dropped due to fear in the market place over its loan portfolio, not a loss of cash flow. The fear is palpable, but is it warranted? I do not think so. On December 28, 2007 NCT closed at $13.08 per share.

Newcastle is a REIT that invests in real estate loans, not the actual real estate, and 90% of those loans are in non-residential projects. Over the past six months, the financial sector has become one big horror story and investors ran from the "financial theaters" in panic. So in my own version of the story, Chasing Value: Newcastle's 21.9% yield too good to be I true?, I decided to play Ghostbusters and tried to make it clear that there is value in NCT. Suppose the yield fell with the stock price as defaults affected cash flow, I could still be very happy with a 7% to 8% yield.

I will summarize here by letting you know I did what homework I could and checked out NCT's recent conference call. This company has averaged an 8.8% yield over the last five years. However, today because the stock is now a third of its recent price, the yield has jumped to 21.9%. Newcastle is standing by this dividend. Actually I think it has to, because REITs are required to pay out most of their profits, and Newcastle has earned 23% over the last fiscal year.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Newcastle's 22% yield will reward patience

Chasing Value: Newcastle's 22% yield will reward patience originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:23:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

During the course of 2007, I read on many occasions that we were in a "Goldilocks" stock market, meaning that while some stocks might be too hot and some too cold, most in the overall market were just right. The overall market had a great run from early winter to mid-summer before it took a big dive.

We saw some recovery from those low points until the credit markets tightened up and billions of dollars in losses and write-downs occurred, bringing down any stocks related to banking, lending, housing, construction and the like. Now consumer debt and consumer spending are frightening the market in the midst of the holiday shopping season.

I started to think about all the fear and doubt forming like dark clouds, speculating on a possible recession in 2008, though I am not convinced of that outcome. I happen to believe that even in the worst markets there are good stocks to buy, maybe even more of them. So I offer up a new metaphor for our current market --- the "fluff & fold" market, when almost nothing is just right.

Continue reading We're now in a 'fluff & fold' market

We're now in a 'fluff & fold' market originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 17 Dec 2007 18:04:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Year-end is almost upon us and I need to get this short list cut down to size with two weeks to go. Because this story is an ongoing process, the heart of the story, the possible stocks, are posted below again, with the latest in bold type as the story builds and I examine things more closely. This week I am adding another energy play in the form of a Canadian Trust. Then I follow with the current edited stock list and the stocks to be cut.

Gallery: Chasing Value: 8 for 2008

In seeking value stocks that have seen their share prices greatly diminished this past year based on reduced earnings, I came across Precision Drilling Trust ADR (NYSE: PDS), which has a P/E near 5 and a dividend yield over 10%. According to AOL Money & Finance information, the company is Canada's largest drilling contractor, with a fleet of 240 service rigs. Its contract drilling units provide drilling services, equipment supply and repair, and on-site catering and management. PDS has extended its reach into the United States this year and has invested in new technology, replaced older rigs and is preparing for continued expansion. Favorable metrics include a low P/B of 1.57 and high historic profit margins of 40%.

PDS closed yesterday at a price of $15.47 per share, near its 52-week low of $15.35, a low set today during the trading day, and 44% off its high of $27.78. The P/E is a trailing figure and is actually higher but the dividend looks secure. For a few more details see: Chasing Value: Precision Drilling for 10% yield.

Disclosure: I have already bought shares of PDS at $17 in several portfolios.

The following stocks have been put in three groups, considering I want to reduce the number to eight. The first group is highly likely to make the cut based on what I know today. The second group is still under consideration but depends on what the value is in two weeks because of current volatility. The last group is being cut, and I noted why.

Continue reading Chasing 8 for 2008: What's in, what's out

Chasing 8 for 2008: What's in, what's out originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 14 Dec 2007 15:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

When I posted Chasing Value: Newcastle's 21.9% yield too good to be true?, I said that the metrics don't really matter as long as Newcastle Investment Corp (NYSE: NCT) stays open for business and keeps paying that dividend!

Today came the announcement that NCT will be distributing $0.72 per share for the fourth quarter, on January 30, 2008, to shareholders of record on December 31. This represents a 20% dividend yield -- not too shabby, but a little lower based on today's price, hovering around $14.00. When I first posted, the stock was 10% lower and yield was 10% higher.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Newcastle makes good on dividends -- 20% yield is still great

Chasing Value: Newcastle makes good on dividends -- 20% yield is still great originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 13 Dec 2007 16:56:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The holiday season is upon us and that translates to shopping season. Generally speaking, I hate shopping and refrain from getting anywhere near a shopping mall or mingling with all the shop-o-holics. However, shopping for stocks is different and it is always the season for that.

Finding the best stock values for next year would be a great gift for everyone that is paying attention to my ramblings, that is, if I am able to maintain my track record. This mission was first shared in Serious Money: Hot stocks for a cool year -- finding 8 for 2008. The heart of the story, the possible stocks, are posted below again, because this is a running story. I have bolded the new info as the story builds and I examine things more closely. But before we get to that review I am adding two companies.

The first to be added, and a candidate that has a good chance to be included in the final eight is Newcastle Investment Corp (NYSE: NCT). For the detailed review read yesterday's story Chasing Value: Newcastle's 21.9% yield too good to be true?. I will summarize here by letting you know, I did what homework I could as well as check out NCT's recent conference call. This company has averaged an 8.8% yield over the last five years. However, today because the stock is now a third of it's recent price the yield has jumped to 21.9%. Newcastle is standing by this dividend. Actually I think they have to because REITS are required to pay out most of their profits and they have earned 23% over the last fiscal year.

The stock is down because the underlying value of the collateral has gone soft in some cases, but mostly they have fallen victim to the generally poor market for various classes of loan packages, be they Alt-A, sub-prime CDO's, or uncle Joe's handshake. That said, NCT's cash flow seems fine, it only has 10% of its portfolio in residential real estate and of that they claim to have a 60 day delinquency rate of less than 1%. NCT also expects $1 billion of loan repayments over the next year. The PEG ratio is 0.15 and they are trading at a book value of 0.74. At the conference call they claimed a book value after being marked-to-market of $15 to $16 a share. This is a strong value proposition.

Gallery: Chasing Value: 8 for 2008

Continue reading Holiday shopping? Buy stocks, not clothes: searching for 8 for 2008

Holiday shopping? Buy stocks, not clothes: searching for 8 for 2008 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 30 Nov 2007 19:06:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.