Newmont Mining posts
FeedCoverage Launch: $81 Trefis Price Estimate for Newmont Mining
Newmont Mining (NEM) is primarily a gold producer with significant assets or operations in the United States, Australia, Peru, Indonesia, Ghana, Canada, New Zealand and Mexico. Newmont Mining competes with other international gold producers like Barrick Gold (ABX), AngloGold Ashanti (AU) and Goldcorp (GG).
Launch of Coverage on Newmont Mining; $80.90 Price Estimate
We recently launched coverage on Newmont Mining with an $80.90 price estimate for the company's stock. Our number stands roughly 35% above market price.
Continue reading Coverage Launch: $81 Trefis Price Estimate for Newmont Mining
Newmont Mining: Take Advantage of the Bull Market in Copper
Newmont Mining (NEM), first discussed here on June 3, 2009, at a price of $46.42, retreated slightly in late 2010 after pushing through $65, but that may be viewed as opportunity to consider the shares, if you missed the June 2009 entry point.
Newmont has the right commodities for globalization's third decade: copper and gold. However, it's not a stock for squeamish or low-risk investors: Newmont's stock practically defines uptrend volatility. Therefore, if you're looking for a steady, predictable, staircase north, it's probably best to skip NEM.
Continue reading Newmont Mining: Take Advantage of the Bull Market in Copper
Put Players Flock to Newmont Mining
Put volume skyrocketed Tuesday on Newmont Mining (NEM), with roughly 22,000 contracts crossing the tape within the first 90 minutes of the session. By contrast, NEM was only expected to see about 1,800 puts change hands -- so this surge represents about 12 times the norm.
The equity's November 60 put is far and away the most active. By 11 a.m., this out-of-the-money strike had already seen in excess of 13,200 contracts exchanged, with 59% of these puts trading at the ask price. Implied volatility on this back-month option has climbed by 2.6 percentage points to 35.2%, so it seems likely that buyers are driving the bulk of today's volume.
Newmont Mining Bounces Higher
Newmont Mining (NEM), first discussed here on June 3, 2009 at a price of $46.42, continues to break new ground (pun intended) share price-wise, but it's not a stock for low-risk investors.However, if you can tolerate volatility -- Newmont's stock practically defines uptrend volatility -- Newmont still has the right commodities for globalization's third decade: copper and gold.
Newmont will likely post a 10-15% revenue gain in 2010, on both higher production and higher average prices for copper and gold. Global demand should support copper prices, and currency market uncertainty (and low, real interest rates) will continue to benefit gold prices.
Chasing Value: Beware of Gold Fever
Anyone investing in the stock market for a while has heard some variation of the story about the old investor that returns to his office after lunch and tells his partner to sell out the portfolio and go to all cash. His astonished partner asks what in the world happened at lunch that convinced him to do this? The old veteran investor tells him that he went to get a haircut and his barber started giving him stock advice. If the market had reached a point where the barber was giving him stock advice, then everyone that could possibly be in the market was, and it was time to get out.
Sometimes the adviser is cab driver, or the grocery clerk, or shoe salesman, it matters not, the point is the same. By the time an investment becomes water cooler chatter it is time to be leery.
Options Update: Microsoft Calls Active, Volatility Trends Lower into EPS and Win7 Outlook
Microsoft (MSFT) closed up 24 cents to $25.47 Tuesday. MSFT is expected to announce Q4 EPS on July 22. August put option implied volatility is at 29, October is at 32, January is at 29, versus its 26-week average of 27, according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement. Newmont Mining (NEM) closed up 97 cents to $58.99. NEM is expected to report Q2 EPS on July 28. Gold is recently up .85% to $1,191 according to Bloomberg. NEM option volume of 8K contracts compares to put volume of 4K contracts. August option implied volatility is at 34, and December is at 35, versus its 26-week average of 36, according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.
Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.
Closing Bell: Profit Taking Meets Colliding Metrics (SQNM, MON, PALM, NEM, AAPL)
Today was one of those days that started directionless and ended up less bad than it looked toward the end. Mortgage applications were down and the earnings picture was mixed. Alan Greenspan dodged the heat that he was responsible for the crash after the bubble in testimony today, although there is still much debate on that. Gold came almost to a 2010 high measured by the key ETF, and the 10-Year Treasury auction went better than many expected. Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:
Dow 10,897.52 -72.47 (-0.66%)
S&P 500 1,182.44 -6.99 (-0.59%)
Nasdaq 2,431.16 -5.65 (-0.23%)
Continue reading Closing Bell: Profit Taking Meets Colliding Metrics (SQNM, MON, PALM, NEM, AAPL)
Guns and gold tell the story on the economy
When gold miners and gun-toters lag the broader economy, it's usually a good sign that conditions are on the mend. Both sectors outperform when times were tough, but this year, their growth has slowed relative to the market has a whole.
The S&P 500 index has gained 57% since March 9, 2009, according to a USA Today report, while Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX) and Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM) are up 36% and 21%, respectively, for the same period. Smith & Wesson (NASDAQ: SWHC) is up 30%. Again, these are definitely respectable results, but they aren't keeping pace with the index.
Continue reading Guns and gold tell the story on the economy
Hot commodity stocks to watch
Despite the U.S. stock market's recent run up, the decline in the U.S. dollar and inflation fears have investors searching for safety in these uncertain times. A popular strategy that has emerged is to hedge market and currency risk with commodities, namely gold, oil, and uranium. What specific stocks and investments in these sectors are likely to outperform?
ETFs like the US Oil Fund (NYSE: USO) and the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) will obviously track any rise or fall in these commodities to a T, but perhaps individual companies in these sectors are a better fit for you. Below are some industry giants, as well as speculative plays that are also drawing attention from investors.
Newmont Mining: Two minerals for the expansion -- gold and copper
Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM) is one of plays that was perhaps bid-up prematurely by Wall Street, and as a result the party has already begun. Nevertheless, the view from view argues that the mining company's upside and the stock's recent pull-back warrant adding shares at this stage. Here's why:In general, analysts expect a 5-7% sales gain in FY2009, aided by higher average prices for gold, which should offset lower prices for copper.
Continue reading Newmont Mining: Two minerals for the expansion -- gold and copper
Newmont strikes a deal
This post was written by Minyanville contributor Lance Lewis.
Just after the close yesterday, Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM) guided up 2009 production and guided 2009 cash costs lower. NEM also announced that it would be purchasing the remaining interest in its majority owned Boddington Mine from Anglogold Ashanti (NYSE: AU) (which equates to 6.6 mln reserve ounces). That's an increase of 8 percent in NEM's Proven & Probable (P&P) reserves at a price tag of $1.2 bln, which will be raised via an equity offering of 19 mln shares.
Based on NEM's 441 mln shares outstanding, we're looking at dilution of just over 4 percent. Thus, in theory, the deal is not even dilutive, given the 8 percent increase in P&P reserves that the company is acquiring with only a 4 percent dilution in equity. Based on what I have seen so far, this looks like a spectacular deal for NEM.
Banro (BAA): A golden stock
This post was written by Minyanville contributor Lance Lewis.
Banro (NYSE: BAA) jumped 13% yesterday after the company announced that it had finally completed its bankable feasibility study on its Twangiza project and proved up nearly 4 mln ounces of its 10 mln ounce resource. Thus, we can now calculate an NAV for BAA.
BAA has no debt. So, assuming $1,000 gold, 3.67 mln ounces of Proven & Probable reserves, an average cash cost of $429 per ounce over the life of the mine (which is based on the feasibility study), and the estimated $410 mln required for cap ex, we get an NAV of almost $15 a share (which gives zero value to the company's current cash balance of around $20 mln and its remaining 5.6 mln ounce resource at Twangiza, not to mention the resource estimates at its other properties).
The week in preview: More earnings crunch expectations
Was the optimism observed in last week's preview post rewarded? Well, as it turned out there were few negative surprises from the companies listed there, really just Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NYSE: AMD) and narrow misses from Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) and Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT).
Again this week, in a list of earnings expectations for some prominent companies in a variety of sectors, we see an apparent optimism. That is, analysts are anticipating more earnings growth than earnings declines.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect the following companies to report a rise in earnings when compared to the same period of the previous year.
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Newmont Mining Corp. (NYSE: NEM): $0.48 EPS (50.0%) on sales of $1.5 billion (+15.7%)
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Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN): $0.26 EPS (26.9%) on sales of $4.0 billion (+37.1%)
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Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT): $1.54 EPS (19.5%) on sales of $12.7 billion (+11.7%)
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McDonald's Corp. (NYSE: MCD): $0.86 EPS (17.4%) on sales of $5.9 billion (-1.5%)
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ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP): $3.41 EPS (15.0%) on sales of $198.6 billion (+319.3%)
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Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL): $1.08 EPS (14.8%) on sales of $7.4 billion (+36.0%)
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Halliburton Co. (NYSE: HAL): $0.68 EPS (11.8%) on sales of $4.3 billion (+13.7%)
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Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN): $0.46 EPS (8.7%) on sales of $3.4 billion (-1.1%)
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Yahoo Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO): $0.12 EPS (8.3%) on sales of $1.4 billion (+10.5%)
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PepsiCo Inc. (NYSE: PEP): $1.02 EPS (7.8%) on sales of $10.5 billion (+9.4%)
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Anheuser-Busch Companies Inc. (NYSE: BUD): $0.93 EPS (6.5%) on sales of $4.7 billion (+4.2%)
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Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE): $0.54 EPS (22.2%) on sales of $11.5 billion (+3.5%)
- Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK): $0.83 EPS (1.2%) on sales of $6.0 billion (-1.2%)
Continue reading The week in preview: More earnings crunch expectations
Newmont Mining (NEM) lifted as gold rises above $900 again
Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM) shares are trading higher today as gold futures prices have risen to break above $900 per ounce once more. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on NEM.After hitting a one-year low of $38.01 in August, the stock hit a one-year high of $57.55 in January. NEM opened this morning at $48.35. So far today the stock has hit a low of $47.95 and a high of $49.31. As of 12:30, NEM is trading at $49.28, up $0.96 (2.0%). The chart for NEM looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bull-put credit spread below the $42.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. This particular trade will make an 8.7% return in just six weeks as long as NEM is above $42.50 at July expiration. Newmont would have to fall by more than 13% before we would start to lose money.
NEM hasn't been below that level since August and has shown support around $46 recently. This trade could be risky if the price of gold futures drops in the next few months, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find at its 200 day moving average, which is currently around $47.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in NEM.
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