Under the radar: Some trends are obvious enough and visible to all investors. Others are more-subtle, but are just as potent, and these often slip 'under the radar.'

Case in point: Saudi Arabia's oil exports to the United States have fallen to a 22-year low, at 745,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August, the latest month for which data is available, from 1.14 million bpd in July, according to data compiled by the U.S. Energy Information Agency. August's 745,000 bpd total is the lowest since December 1987. On a year-over-year basis (August 2008-August 2009), those exports are down about 50%.

Under these economic conditions, you take the good news where you can get it, and one such data point occurred in Nigeria.

A cease fire by Nigeria's oil rebels, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), went into effect on Sunday, following a meeting between Nigerian President Umaru Yar'Adua and MEND Leader Henry Okah, Bloomberg News reported.

What is happening in the oil patch? Oil had its strongest monthly gain in 10 years following OPEC's upbeat assessment of demand.

On the NYMEX, July West Texas Intermediate hit a seven month high of $66.47 per barrel. US crude has risen 29% in May, the best monthly gain since 1999. On the ICE exchange Brent crude rose 78 cents to $64.15 per barrel, up 7.2% for the week.

Oil moved above $46 yesterday. According to The New York Times, "One year after crude oil eclipsed $100 a barrel for the first time, the new year's trading began Friday with prices roughly half their year-earlier levels, and some believe oil could be headed even lower."

It is hard to make a bull case for oil, but not as hard as some imagine.

The stock market yesterday signaled that investors think that the economy is making a bottom and that perhaps the second half of the year will actually bring a recovery. If oil traders buy into that, they will begin to trade futures up. It is a fair assumption that an improving economy will require more crude.

Another, more obvious, reason is that OPEC will cut supply until prices go up. Some oil producers, both inside and outside OPEC, need the money from crude sales to keep their economies from sharp contraction. Russia and Venezuela are high on that list.

People watching the news think the war in Gaza will push prices up by interrupting demand. This is only true if Iran becomes involved and its territory is attacked. That is a long shot.

The large exporter that is very likely to see political turmoil that will cut its production is Nigeria, which is almost never mentioned in the debate over oil prices. Rebels cut supplies there several times last year. Only last week, a well-know militant was arrested by the government. That act could certainly lead to growing rebel activity to hurt the government. Hitting pipelines is not terribly hard. Defending thousands of miles of them is impossible.

The price of oil? Watch Nigeria.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

There's modest good news on the gasoline front for U.S. consumers, but don't write (or e-mail or text message) home just yet.

Several key oil-producing nations are preparing for the prospect of $45 per barrel oil, indicating these oil exporters believe the price of the world's most important commodity is likely to fall more amid both U.S. and global economic recessions.

Saudis prep for oil's slide

Saudi Arabia, which possesses the largest proved oil reserves in the world, has passed a government budget that's prepared for $45 oil, stratfor.com reports. Meanwhile, Nigeria and Libya have reduced their 2009 oil price forecasts to $45.

Oil, which has plummeted more than 60% since hitting a record high of $147.27 this summer, fell another 48 cents to $58.85 per barrel in Wednesday morning trading.

Economist Richard Felson said the oil price plunge and the gasoline price drop it has created is good news for U.S. motorists, with certain qualifiers. "It is an astounding drop, approaching a $100 per barrel drop, and that has taken pressure off refined energy products," Felson said. "The problem is, if analysts are correct about $40-45 per barrel oil, it implies a slowdown in U.S. and global GDP that will likely mean large layoffs, which isn't good for anyone."

Oil prices are moving up today because of a hurricane which may hit the Gulf of Mexico. It is a signal that it does not take much to move crude prices, which have fallen from $142 to $115, in the "wrong" direction again.

According to Bloomberg, "Crude oil rose for the first time in three days as a storm near Cuba prompted evacuations from rigs and platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, which accounts for about a fifth of U.S. production. " Any disruption in production brought on by the storm would be short-lived.

The news should remind those who see crude moving toward $100 a barrel that the system of supply and demand is fragile. OPEC is talking about cutting production now that prices have fallen. The conflict between Georgia and Russia could still disrupt the flow of oil from Georgian ports. Nigeria remains an extremely unstable country. Recent reports show that China's GDP is still growing at over 10%. That growth relies heavily on gas and diesel to transport exports to shipping facilities.

The drop in oil prices may drive a certain complacency about gas and heating oil prices. It could undercut the big move is the US toward "energy independence." But that would be a sucker play. There are too many pressure points that will keep oil prices high.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

At this juncture, investors/readers thinking about speculating a little in oil via shares in the United States Oil Fund (AMEX: USO) or via an integrated oil company should think again.

With the U.S. stock market meandering and the nation's economic doldrums continuing, the urge can build in investors, particularly those less-experienced, to try something daring.

However, the oil market is currently in a tug-of-war between the geopolitical concern-oriented bulls and the global economy slowdown-oriented bears.

In other words, the oil market is about as balanced -- or as divided -- as it has been in about two years, so says energy trader Jim Dietz. Oil closed Friday up $1.02 to $125.10 per barrel. Oil is down about 15% from its all-time high of $147.27 registered on July 11, 2008, but is still up about 100% over the past year and about 400% since 2000.

Oil rose more than $4 a barrel early Friday morning to a record $145.98 on concerns that Israel may be preparing to attack Iran and on supply concerns in Nigeria and Brazil.
[Update: Oil prices continued to climb, reaching a record of $147.03 a barrel, and this may not be the last update.]

Oil came within a whisker of $146 per barrel after Israeli fighter jets reportedly practiced over Iraq according to Iraqi and Iranian sources. This, however, was enough to increase speculation among traders that Israel is preparing to launch a military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities.

The United States and the European Union want Iran to end uranium enrichment, a technology that would give Iran the materials needed to produce a nuclear bomb. Iran says it wants the nuclear technology solely to produce electricity for civilian use. If one discounts oil sands, Iran has the world's second largest proved oil reserves, after Saudi Arabia.

Oil was also fanned higher by threats of additional Nigerian civil unrest and Brazilian oil union's plan to start a 5-day strike, Bloomberg News reported Friday.

The other major energy commodities, likewise, also jumped in early Friday morning trading. Heating oil surged 8 cents to $4.12 per gallon, unleaded gasoline rose 6 cents to $357 per gallon, and natural gas jumped 16 cents to $12.53 per million BTUs.

Oil rose over $137 Monday after traders calculated that Saudi Arabia's announced production increase will not be able to replace production disruptions in Nigeria, Bloomberg News reported.

Oil rose $2.20 to $137.56 per barrel in Monday mid-day trading. The other major energy commodities also rose on the news. Heating oil jumped 8 cents to $3.85 per gallon, unleaded gasoline gained about 4 cents to $3.47 per gallon, and natural gas climbed about 23 cents to $13.22 per million BTUs.

Attacks on a Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) platform and a Chevron (NYSE: CVX) pipeline last week halted production of 300,000 barrels of oil per day from Nigeria, Bloomberg News reported. The Nigerian unrest easily offset Saudi Arabia's announcement, at the Jeddah summit it hosted, that it would pump an additional 200,000 barrels per day.

Oil's 'safety cushion' is low

Jim Dietz, independent energy trader, told BloggingStocks Monday, a weak dollar and speculator long positions have been factors in oil's more than 4-year bull market, but the No. 1 factor, in his interpretation, is the low 'safety cushion' between daily global oil supply and demand.

Oil surged $4.27 to $136.20 per barrel Friday after the dollar fell and reports confirmed that Israel had conducted a military exercise that analysts say rehearsed a potential bombing attack on nuclear targets in Iran, Bloomberg News reported Friday.

The other major energy commodities also surged Friday on the news. Heating oil jumped 11 cents to $3.82 per gallon, unleaded gasoline gained 8 cents to $3.43 per gallon, and natural gas climbed 26 cents to $13.12 per million BTUs.

Short-circuited oil sell-off

Under most circumstances, oil rises when the dollar falls, as holders of oil, which is priced in dollars, raise their prices to compensate for the reduced purchasing power of the dollar. The dollar Friday was set to record 3-cent weekly declines against the euro and British pound.

Further, geopolitical events re-entered the oil stage. Israel undertook a major military exercise earlier this month that American officials say appeared to be a rehearsal for a potential bombing attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, The New York Times reported Friday.

OPEC has repeated what it has said before, but with a little twist. It will not raise supply before its September meeting. That means that relief from $130 plus crude prices may not be coming.

But, the small addition to the group's comments is that "OPEC has no plans to meet to discuss oil's surge to a fresh record, and would need to see a real supply threat to gather before the next scheduled meeting," according to Reuters.

While it is not entirely clear what that means, it probably includes disruptions of oil production in areas that have little political stability, especially Nigeria and Venezuela.

In general, OPEC says that speculation and a weak dollar are driving oil up. That is a convenient excuse for a cartel that is making hundreds of billions of dollars while gasoline prices move toward $5.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

An OPEC official said Friday the cartel may meet to boost output ahead of its September 2008 meeting if crude oil prices keep rising, Reuters reported Friday.

"If the price keeps going up, OPEC may consult on an increase in production before it meets in September," the OPEC source told Reuters Friday, speaking on condition that he not be identified. He added that the increase "would have to be more than 500,000 barrels per day" to have an impact.

Oil Friday hit another record high, increasing $2.20 to $126.20 per barrel Friday morning, before easing back to $125.25, on concern about production in Nigeria amid civil unrest, and on emerging market oil demand growth, particularly in China and India. Further, institutional investor demand for oil as an asset class is also contributing to oil's record rise, many analysts agree.

'Two years, $75 late'

Economist Glen Langan told BloggingStocks Friday talk of a potential OPEC action on production is two years too late. "OPEC is two years, $75 late, I'm sorry to say," Langan said. "OPEC knew for two years that higher production was needed to help meet unprecedented emerging market demand, but they failed to act in the interests of the global economy."

American motorists, already stung by an 80% increase in gasoline prices in the past year, sense that $5 per gallon is ahead, and they may be (regrettably) right.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll found that 94% of respondents expect to pay $4 per gallon this year, and 78% expect to pay as much as $5, CNNMoney reported Tuesday.

The national average currently is $3.62 per gallon as tracked by the Lundberg Survey, Bloomberg News reported. Many higher-cost areas of the United States -- including New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Boston -- are already experiencing prices over $4 per gallon.

Further, traders and analysts say seasonal, structural, and geopolitical factors are likely to push gasoline considerably higher in the weeks ahead -- with gasoline's upward arc lasting months, if the price of oil continues to rise.

Primary culprit: Rising oil prices

The biggest factor in gasoline's rise is the price of oil, which Tuesday topped $122 per barrel in NYMEX trading for the first time in its history. Oil is up more than 100% since 2006. In November 2001, oil traded at about $17 per barrel. Moreover, because the crude component accounts for more than 60% of the price of a gallon of gasoline, refiners have passed that added cost onto consumers.

Oil continues its charge today, with prices rising above $122. At noon, oil is at $122.21, up $2.21.

The bulls have definitely had plenty of reason to continue to push prices higher this week. Concerns over supplies and the weak U.S. dollar continue to lead headlines, adding a boost to the current record high prices. Unfortunately for consumers at the gasoline pumps, higher oil will probably continue to prop up gasoline prices.

In an already uncertain market, any sort of rumors over supplies will always lead to higher prices, and that is definitely playing a part in the current market. Fresh concerns are flowing out of Iraq after Kurdish rebels threatened to start running suicide operations against American interests in the country. Iran is (as always) in the minds of traders as the country continues to defy the United Nations over its nuclear program.

Oil surged more than $3 to break through the $120 level Monday on concern a rebel attack in Nigeria would disrupt that country's production, Bloomberg News reported.

The markets were also rattled by a New York Times report indicating that Iran has apparently rejected the west's latest package of incentives to end its nuclear program.

Oil rose $3.86 to a record $120.21 per barrel, before drifting back slightly to $119.75 on Monday at mid-day.

The other major energy commodities also rose substantially Monday morning. Heating oil jumped 9 cents to $3.31 per gallon, unleaded gasoline surged 7 cents to $3.04 per gallon, and natural gas rose 36 cents to $11.13 per million BTUs.