On Thursday, Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN) and Kohl's Corp. (NYSE: KSS) both reported smaller-than-expected first-quarter profit declines as consumers continued to pull back their spending.
Luxury retailer Nordstrom said its profit fell 24% from the same quarter of last year to $119 million, or 54 cents per share. Revenue fell 4% from a year ago to $1.88 billion. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial had predicted Nordstrom would earn 49 cents per share on sales of $1.9 billion.
The company said same-store sales fell 6.5% for the quarter, below the expected 3% to 5% drop. The retailer said it expects same-store sales to fall 5% to 7% in the quarter, and 4% to 6% in the year.
For the current quarter, Nordstrom forecast a profit of 65 to 70 cents per share; analysts' forecast earnings of 69 cents per share. For the full year, Nordstrom cut its earnings outlook to $2.65 to $2.89 per share, from an earlier forecast for $2.75 to $2.90 per share. Analysts predict earnings of $2.76 per share.
By mid day Friday, shares of Nordstrom had gained $1.35, or 3.5%, from the open on Thursday. Shares have fallen 28.7% in the past year.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: The Department store sector, SanDisk and CNET Networks were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Goldman downgraded the department store sector to Neutral from Attractive after raising its 2008 oil forecast to $149 from $115, as it believes higher gas prices will impact consumer discretionary spend and sentiment. Goldman downgraded JC Penney (NYSE: JCP) and Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) to Neutral and also removed Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) from its Conviction Buy List.
JMP Securities downgraded SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) to Underperform from Market Perform based on increased competition in NAND, a potential decline in royalty income, valuation, and lack of catalysts from flash-based solid state drives.
CNET Networks (NASDAQ: CNET) was cut to Neutral from Buy at Banc of America following the tender offer from CBS (NYSE: CBS).
The earnings season continues to roll on, and next week's results offer a peek at the state of fashion retailing, as a variety of companies -- from the discount to the upscale, from the hip to the pedestrian -- are scheduled to report earnings.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect earnings growth, compared to the same period in the previous year, from Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN) to be 22.7% to 22 cents per share, from Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) to be 9.3% to 75 cents per share, and from TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX) to be 7.5% to 40 cents per share.
Analysts expect earnings declines from the previous year from JC Penney (NYSE: JCP) by 52.9% to 49 cents per share, from Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) by 34.4% to 42 cents per share, and from Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) by 18.3% to 49 cents per share.
In the case of Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), analysts expect earnings to remain flat, year over year, at 65 cents per share.
And then there's Macy's (NYSE: M), which is expected to swing to a loss of 2 cents per share, compared to a profit of 16 cents a year ago.
The sample size may be too small to define any significant trends, but the numbers do suggest that analysts expect profit declines to be deeper than profit growth, and that consumers may be more likely, given the current state of the economy, to buy clothes at Wal-Mart or TJ Maxx than at Nordstrom or Abercrombie.
The coming results will reveal if those expectations are correct.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: ComScore, Duke Realty, Nordstrom and Sun Healthcare were among today's noteworthy upgrades:
ComScore (NASDAQ: SCOR) was upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer to reflect the strong Q1 report and strong customer additions.
Duke Realty (NYSE: DRE) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wachovia upgraded based on valuation.
Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Sun Healthcare (NASDAQ: SUNH) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Friedman Billings based on valuation and notes the Medicare rate cuts will be as drastic as feared.
OTHER UPGRADES:
MedAssets (NASDAQ: MDAS) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Piper, which thinks the company's acquisition of Accuro will strengthen its revenue cycle management offering, and the firm believes the tight credit markets make the company's MedAssets a compelling product in the short-term. In addition, Piper notes that the company has recently had success with large hospital systems.
Jones Apparel (NYSE: JNY) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merrill citing sales expectations for the l.e.i. brand at Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and margin improvements from leaner inventories.
Affiliated Computer (NYSE: ACS) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies based on valuation and expectations for better bookings.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the downside for these stocks is smaller, but they won't be his first line of defense.
You should not get oil ramping and retail ramping. You can't have early-cycle running and commodities running, even though I know that commodities are a "rest of world" story.
I believe that Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) (Cramer's Take) can run, but the others? I have to say that if oil isn't going down, these stocks will have a failed rally and retreat again, but not below their recent lows.
The early-cycle rally of the higher-end retailers is the most problematic, because it is the least backed by the estimates. Look how excited everyone was about Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) and now look how poorly it is trading. Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) (Cramer's Take) and Target (NYSE: TGT) (Cramer's Take) should get hammered again for a couple of points, because the numbers for March are going to be awful.
What's a tell-tale sign of a recession, and conversely, an indicator investors/readers should monitor to spot when the recovery has started? Retail sales -- particularly at department stores.
Most retailers will report March 2008 same-store sales this week, and Wall Street is bracing for the worst. In January 2008 and February 2008, same-store sales declined at nearly every major department store, including JC Penney (NYSE: JCP), Macy's (NYSE: M), Kohl's (NYSE: KSS), Dillard's (NYSE: DDS) and Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN).
Further, investors should watch Nordstrom's same-store sales carefully. The reason? Upscale retailer Nordstrom is a type of quick-reference, or an economic-barometer-in-a-snapshot, of the depth of a recession. If retail sales decline at broader-demographic retailers for several consecutive months, that points to a recession. But if sales decline at upscale retailer Nordstrom, that's a sign that even those with higher incomes and substantial assets are cutting back, which is a bad sign for the economy.
Nordtstrom's customers include professionals, executives and business owners -- including people who make hiring decisions. If they're cutting back, that may indicate they will not be hiring in the period ahead, which is never good news for the economy. Invariably, it means the recession's end is not near.
In Q4 2007, Nordstrom's sales fell 4.4% and earnings per share fell for the first time in more than five years to 92 cents per share. If Nordstrom's same-store sales decline again in March, that's a sign of continued belt-tightening by upper-middle and upper-income adults, and a sign that an economic recovery is not near.
The upscale retailer has embarked on an aggressive store expansion. The company will add 1.11 million square feet in 2008, more than twice that which was added in 2007. With that expansion in square footage has come an commensurate increase in short sales volume (those sold with the intention of betting on the stock price decreasing in JWN).
Analysts are fearing that while Nordstrom may have it going on in terms of hitting the fashion bulls-eye, such aggressive expansion may negatively affect the company. The same Bloomberg story quotes a Wall Street analyst who said that "slowdown in square-footage growth'' would make her more positive on the Nordstrom story.
Much as an astute investor in the stock market would use price pullbacks to add to positions he or she likes, Nordstrom is leveraging cut-backs in store expansions at competitors to land what it feels are prime locations for new stores.
With fears that the U.S. consumer will suffer more than he is presently, investors are nervous that store expansion may leave Nordstrom with a lot to sell and not a whole lot of buying going on.
Zack Miller is the managing editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Quiksilver, Omniture and Crown Holdings were today's noteworthy upgrades:
B. Riley upgraded shares of Quiksilver (NYSE: ZQK) to Buy from Neutral on valuation and to reflect the EPS catalyst and debt reduction associated with divesting Rossignol.
Friedman Billings upgraded shares of Omniture (NASDAQ: OMTR) to Outperform from Market Perform following the recent pullback, as they believe the company is in its best competitive position ever, which should drive increasing win rates and help restore pricing power.
Banc of America upgraded shares of Crown Holdings (NYSE: CCK) to Buy from Neutral to reflect the company's international exposure and believes metal packaging companies should be better able to manage input inflation.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the number of things that went wrong in one day is astounding, and is led by the woes of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
There aren't many days like yesterday. Or let's hope there won't be. Let me refresh all of the things that went wrong so we have the context of how treacherous this market really is.
1. The Treasury and the President saw fit not to endorse the "implicit" guarantee for Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take) paper. For those of us who have bought and sold this paper for most of our lives, this was the signal that almost everything could be worthless. Their refusal to acknowledge the problems was so in the Hoover playbook that it was shameful.
2. We always figured that you should be able to lever up if you are in the bond market, with nine to one being an acceptable level for rock solid collateral like Fannie Mae mortgage paper, which was presumed to pay off at par with the only question being when. Now, because the question is no longer "when," but "if" that level of leverage is going to be obliterated. Maybe three or four times is all we will get. There have to be trillions of dollars at risk in loans right now because of that loss of implicit guarantees.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says it could be part of a strategy to pounce when the economy sagged. Lowe's can take the pain; Home Depot can't.
Maybe Lowe's (NYSE: LOW) (Cramer's Take) sees what we saw this morning: A Home Depot (NYSE: HD) (Cramer's Take) that's a shadow of its former self. Maybe LOW is pulling a Verizon (NYSE: VZ) (Cramer's Take) and just going out to destroy the competition with lower rates and short-term hits to performance.
Yesterday I was torn between what really drove up the price of Lowe's: the January low point with February showing some improvement, or an overall belief that the early cycle is starting and the economy has bottomed courtesy the Fed rate cuts. The reaction last night to Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) (Cramer's Take) was similar: terrible earnings but hope that things will get better. It's is now well above where it hit its low and it is hard for me to believe that it could go back there.
You couldn't tell which theory was winning out for either Lowe's or Nordstrom because I am sure you had buyers of both plus the ubiquitous short-sellers who lurk everywhere and are prone to cover on a moment's worth of positive price action (as we saw in Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) (Cramer's Take) yesterday before a new round of estimate cuts, courtesy special purpose vehicles that some alleged cognoscenti will claim they saw coming).
Among companies reporting quarterly earnings next week are upscale retailers Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN) and Macy's Inc. (NYSE: M). Here's a quick peek at them ahead of results.
Nordstrom has missed quarterly earnings estimates only once since 2005. When the company reported third-quarter fiscal 2008 results back in November, earnings came to 59 cents per share, beating the consensus forecast of analysts polled by Thomson Financial by seven cents. For the current quarter, analysts expect 88 cents per share, compared to 89 cents in the year-ago quarter.
The company's earnings per share growth forecast for the next three to five years is 44.3%, better than the industry average and S&P 500. The analysts' consensus recommendation has been to hold Nordstrom since November. Shares are up from the 52-week low of $28.00 in January, and closed Friday at $36.00.
For news on Nordstrom that could influence the earnings results, see BloggingStocks' Nordstrom coverage.
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The earnings season continues to roll on, and next week's results offer a peek at the state of fashion retailing, as a variety of companies -- from the discount to the upscale, from the hip to the pedestrian -- are scheduled to report earnings.
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