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Boeing loses four contracts in three months

Bloomberg News reports that Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) has a whole lot of losing going on. Yesterday, Boeing suffered its fourth straight defeat in three months on a U.S. defense contract. This loss represents $41 billion in lost revenue.

Here are the four contracts:

  • Yesterday. Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) the world's largest defense company, beat Boeing for a $1.46 billion U.S. Air Force award to build a new network of navigation satellites for military and civilian use. The Air Force said it reviewed five years of past performance for both contractors. Boeing has yet to launch a single satellite under its most recent GPS contract from April 1996, and in 2006 the company forfeited $21.4 million and replaced the program's managers after delays and cost overruns.
  • February 2008. EADS, parent of Airbus and Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) won a $35 billion tanker contest for the Air Force. I've spilled much electronic ink on this one -- it looks like the Air Force changed the specifications for the project but only told EADS about the change.

Continue reading Boeing loses four contracts in three months

Newspaper wrap-up: Harris ponders future and considers selling

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • Harris Corporation (NYSE: HRS), concerned about its future growth, may see limited opportunity and may consider selling itself, the Wall Street Journal reported. If it does decide to sell, suitors could include Raytheon Company (NYSE: RTN), BAE Systems Plc (OTC: BAESY) and Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE: NOC).
  • The Wall Street Journal reported that, in an attempt to toughen its regulation standards, SEC chairman Christopher Cox said earlier this week the agency would push Wall Street investment houses will have to reduce borrowing and rely less on short-term financing.
  • As part of plans to reduce costs and restore profit growth, people close to the situation said that Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) is likely to today identify up to $400B in non-core assets that could be sold. Additionally, the Financial Times reported that Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit will confirm his pledge to cut the bank's cost base by about 20% at a meeting with analysts today. Sources familiar with the matter believe Pandit will dismiss calls for a break-up of the company.
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Analyst upgrades: NOC, PFWD and CLS

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Northrop Grumman, Phase Forward and Celestica were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Cowen upgraded Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) to Outperform from Neutral following the Q1 report based on accelerating growth. Shares were also upgraded at JP Morgan to Overweight from Neutral.
  • Friedman Billings upgraded Phase Forward (NASDAQ: PFWD) to Outperform from Market Perform following the solid Q1 report and views guidance as beatable.
  • CIBC raised Celestica (NYSE: CLS) to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer following Q1 results, citing end markets that look stable.
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • JP Morgan upgraded the Consumer Discretionary Sector to Overweight from Underweight.
  • Wendy's (NYSE: WEN) was raised to Neutral from Sell at Goldman.
  • Progenics Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: PGNX) was upgraded at Citigroup to Hold from Sell.
  • Merrill Lynch raised Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) to Buy from Neutral.

Newspaper wrap-up: Countrywide's knowledge of borrowers under scrutiny

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Why Boeing lost the $100 billion Air Force tanker deal

BusinessWeek reports that Boeing Inc.'s (NYSE: BA) loss to Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) and EADS for the $100 billion contract for Air Force tankers -- aircraft that refuel fighter craft while they're in the air -- was a no-brainer from the Air Force's perspective.

BusinessWeek quotes Loren Thompson, a Lexington Institute defense analyst, who concluded that "Northrop Grumman's victory was not a close outcome." Here are two reasons he cited:

  • Northrop offered more bang for the buck. While both Boeing and Northrop Grumman satisfied requirements established by the Air Force, Northrop was clearly the better buy. With Northrop, the military could have "49 superior tankers operating by 2013," Thompson said, while Boeing's proposal would give it "only 19 considerably less capable planes" by then.
  • Boeing's Tankers did not perform as well as Northrop's. "Boeing didn't manage to beat Northrop in a single measure of merit" -- not in flight range, fuel capacity, speed of delivery, or cost. "Boeing would have to find a lot of problems to overturn this outcome," Thompson told BusinessWeek. The Northrop tanker carriers 250,000 pounds of fuel, compared to 202,000 on Boeing's, a crucial difference considering that refueling tankers must often circle for many hours when military operations require.

I'm writing a book about Boeing and if Thompson is right, the loss raises questions about Boeing's competitive vigor. Not winning this $100 billion deal is obviously not a help for its stock either.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

Analyst upgrades: NOC, GDNNY and MELI

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Northrop Grumman, Groupe Danone and MercadoLibre were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Oppenheimer upgraded shares of Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) to Outperform from Perform after the Pentagon selected the company over Boeing (NYSE: BA) for the newly designated KC-45A Aerial Refueling Tanker with a potential value of $35B.
  • Citigroup upgraded shares of Groupe Danone (OTC: GDNNY) to Buy from Hold on valuation, as they believe the sell-off on commodity cost concerns is overdone.
  • MercadoLibre (NASDAQ: MELI) was raised to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital, as they believe MELI's long-term thesis is more compelling now vs. six months ago and notes favorable reaction to Mercado Pago v2.0.
OTHER UPGRADES:

Option update: Northrop Grumman March volatility elevated into Aerial Tanker win

Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) was trading at $83.50 in pre-open trading above its close of $78.61 on Friday.

The Pentagon announced NOC/EADS A330 aerial refueling tanker won a $35 billion contract to supply 179 midair refueling planes.

Oppenheimer says: "We are raising our price target to $95 from prior $91 as we see the initial contract, at a minimum, as $3-6 of value per share."

NOC March option implied volatility of 29 is above its 26-week average of 23 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Newspaper wrap-up: E*Trade expected to name Layton as its CEO

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Defense stocks should be on your radar screen

President Bush recently submitted a $3.1 trillion dollar budget to congress with the biggest proposed increases in defense spending, and homeland security. The Pentagon would get a $35 billion increase to $515 billion for core programs, about 7% with war costs additional (but how much is additional?) This further supports my investment posture for this year and next that the defense sector is the place to be as I posted earlier today and many times over the past few months -- the BIG BUYS.

Some of our big defense contractors, all of which should benefit to some degree include: Boeing (NYSE: BA), General Dynamics (NYSE: GD), Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT), Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC), Raytheon Company (NYSE: RTN), and United Technologies (NYSE: UTX). I am not suggesting that you jump into these stocks immediately, but you should add them to your watch list. Perhaps, for some investors dollar cost averaging into them over six months would make sense. Each has a varying degree of exposure to defense spending. For example, United Technologies is the parent of Sikorsky helicopters which makes the Black Hawk. Lockheed Martin and Boeing make fighter jets. Raytheon makes defense electronics and missile while General Dynamics and Northrop Grumman supply warships to the US Navy. Northrop also makes aerial vehicles that are being used in the Iraq War.

Continue reading Defense stocks should be on your radar screen

Newspaper wrap-up: Bear Stearns CEO expected to step down

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Analyst upgrades: UBS, CRZBY, TRMA, OPMR and MCCC

MOST NOTEWORTHY: UBS AG, Commerzbank , Trico Marine Services, Optimal Group and Mediacom were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • JP Morgan upgraded shares of UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) to Overweight from Neutral on valuation, as they believe the risk/reward is now attractive.
  • Commerzbank AG (OTC: CRZBY) was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley, as they believe the company has eliminated much of the uncertainty on asset quality.
  • Jefferies upgraded shares of Trico Marine Services Inc (NASDAQ: TRMA) to Buy from Hold and raised their target to $46 from $40 to reflect the growth potential brought on by the company's purchase of Active Subsea ASA.
  • B. Riley raised its rating on Optimal Group Inc (NASDAQ: OPMR) to Buy from Neutral to reflect the company's proven management team, acquisition of WowWee and strong balance sheet.
  • Citigroup upgraded shares of Mediacom Communications Corporation (NASDAQ: MCCC) to Buy from Hold on valuation following the recent pullback, as they now think the stock is oversold. Citigroup thinks Mediacom will generate free cash in 2008 and they like the pace of buybacks.
OTHER UPGRADES:

My Yankee Doodle Dandy portfolio

Let me introduce my Yankee Doodle Dandy portfolio, a compilation of red, white and blue stocks for investors to consider as they celebrate our nation's independence.

Regardless of your views on the Iraq war, there's no denying that defense stocks including Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE: LMT), Northrop Grumman Co. (NYSE: NOC), Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN) and General Dynamics Corp. (NYSE: GD) are reasonably valued. This is especially noteworthy considering that defense spending will need to be maintained at pretty high levels for years to come in order to replace equipment that's been worn out from combat. President Bush is proposing to spend a record $439 billion in fiscal 2007 on defense and another $42.7 billion on homeland security.

Lockheed, the maker of the F-16, seems especially cheap, trading at a forward multiple of 14.6. Its shares have only gained 4.6% this year even though the company reported better-than-expected first-quarter results and raised earnings guidance. Missile and defense electronics company Raytheon, up less than 3%, is in the same situation.

Investors often overlook the huge businesses that Lockheed and Raytheon have in areas outside of defense, including computer systems and air-traffic control. The managements of both companies also have vastly improved over the past few years. Northrop and General Dynamics have always been pretty well run.

Boeing Co. (NYSE:BA), notably the second-largest defense contractor, also looks worth snapping up. Its stock is up less than 3% this year, which is surprising considering how well it's rebounded against European rival Airbus. The company trades at a forward multiple of 17.7.

Continue reading My Yankee Doodle Dandy portfolio

Market highlights for next week: Apple one of many co's reporting

Monday April 23
Tuesday April 24
Wednesday April 25
  • The Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) to report Q1 earnings; conference call at 10:30 a.m. Will Boeing discuss Airbus's decision to halve the price of its A350 planes in order to become more competitive with Boeing's 787 Dreamliner?
  • Market darling Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) will also report Q2 earnings, conference call at 5 p.m.
Thursday April 26
Friday April 27

Boeing and Northrop/Airbus compete for $40B Air Force tanker order

In yet another bout in the Boeing Co.(NYSE: BA)-Airbus slugfest, both are involved in bids to supply the U.S. Air Force with 12-18 refueling tanker planes annually. The contract value is estimated at $40 billion.

Airbus (EADS) is partnering with Northrop Grumman Corp. (NYSE: NOC) to offer the Northrop-Grumman KC-30, a version of EADS' A330. To counter the protests already being voiced by American workers about defense jobs being lost overseas, EADS would assemble the planes at Northrop's facility in Mobile, Alabama. EADS estimates 52% of the work would be done on U.S. soil, providing 25,000 jobs.

Boeing's proposal will offer the tanker version of its 767, the KC-767, which it claims will be 85% American-made and provide up to 44,000 jobs. The plane is already being used by the Italian Air Force and Japanese Air Self-defense Force.

The Air Force is expected to announce the winner of this competition by the end of the year.

The week in Defense and Aerospace

Boeing Co. (NYSE:BA): Rival Airbus booked its first firm order for the A350 XWB. Finnair converted an order for nine of the old A350s to the new version and added two more. The first planes are booked for delivery beginning in 2014.

Continental Airlines ordered five 787-9 Dreamliners from Boeing this week, bringing its total order from the 787 line to 25 planes. Delivery of their first 787-9s is scheduled for 2009.

L-3 Communications Holdings (NYSE:LLL): L-3 Communications received a $43 million, five-year contract from the U.S. Army to develop software technology for networked warfare.

Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) and Northrop Grumman (NYSE:NOC): A $600 million combined project of Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman Corp. to build a dozen fast-response cutters was canceled last week. The project, on hold for the last year, was beset with cost overruns and had come under sharp criticism from Sen. John Kerry. The Coast Guard plans to re-bid the project.

Continue reading The week in Defense and Aerospace

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Last updated: July 24, 2008: 09:35 AM

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