Nouriel Roubini posts
FeedPosted Apr 1st 2011 8:30AM by Jason Raznick (RSS feed)

U.S. stock futures are higher Friday morning, as investors await nonfarm payroll figures at 8:30 a.m. ET. Futures on the
Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 49 points to 12,301.00 and futures on the S&P 500 stock index gained 5 points to 1,326.00. Nasdaq 100 futures added 11.75 points to 2,348.00.
Positive sentiment ruled the European markets today. While STOXX Europe 600 Index has gained 0.75%, London's FTSE 100 Index moved up 0.82%.
Most Asian markets ended higher, with Japan's Nikkei Stock Average dropping 0.48%, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 moving up 0.53% and China's Shanghai Composite gaining 1.35%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 1.17%.
Continue reading U.S. Futures Up Ahead of Payroll Data
Posted May 21st 2010 6:00PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Financial Crisis

New York University Economics Professor
Nouriel Roubini, who accurately predicted the subprime mortgage default-induced financial crisis more than a year before it hit, is now cautioning the U.S. to not assume that the next stage of the financial crisis cannot return to U.S. shores.
"Bond market vigilantes have already woken up in Greece, in Spain, in Portugal, in Ireland, in Iceland, and soon enough they could wake up in the U.K., in Japan, in the United States, if we keep on running very large fiscal deficits," Roubini
told Blooomberg News. "The chances are, they are going to wake up in the United States in the next three years and say, 'this is unsustainable.' "
Continue reading NYU's Roubini: U.S. Can't Run Massive Deficits Forever
Posted Jan 27th 2010 10:00AM by Mark Fightmaster (RSS feed)
Filed under: Economic Data, Financial Crisis

Over in Davos, Switzerland, Dr. Nouriel Roubini continues to live up to his nickname, Dr. Doom. According to
MarketWatch, the New York University economist said in a crowded gathering that developed economies will see a
slowdown in the recovery in the second half of the year. The panel of high-profile economists and investors believes that we need to proceed with caution, but the panel was "more upbeat" than last year.
Specifically, Roubini believes that labor conditions in the United States and other developed countries remain weak. He feels that the U.S. and other governments need to start the process of trimming deficits and cutting debt. If this scenario does not play out, Roubini feels that we could see a rise in interest rates that could "crowd out investment."
Continue reading Roubini Warns About Recovery, Praises Obama
Posted Jul 27th 2009 2:20PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Rants and Raves, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), Market Matters, Economic Data, Financial Crisis
He was two years early and now he might be two years late. His facts were right. His timing was off, and I think if you wait for the illustrious NYU professor Nouriel Roubini to give the "all clear sign" you will miss even more of the market upside than you have missed already.
On February 18 of this year I wrote Buffett says buy, then sells, Roubini says wait -- what's an investor to do? -- and it will make interesting reading today. After all it was about three weeks before the market really hit bottom, and I called that, too, posting on March 9: Nostradamus was a punk! Have we reached bottom? -- a lucky call for sure. However, the number of folks thinking the world was coming to an end seemed like the ultimate capitulation.
Continue reading Waiting for Roubini will cost you!
Posted Feb 20th 2009 2:20PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Forecasts, Rants and Raves, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), Market Matters, Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), Recession, Financial Crisis

The plight of the US and global economy, and how it touches everyone, has most people believing we are in for a long drawn out period of sluggish growth, and that a lot of pain is still to come. For most companies and individuals this means they can not obtain enough liquidity, reduce debt or increase their net cash positions fast enough.
Continue reading Should Buffett & Roubini "Face the Nation"?
Posted Jan 23rd 2009 11:30AM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Forecasts, Bad News, China, Indices, S and P 500, DJIA, Financial Crisis
You thought New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini was simply another one of those 'liberal academics' who criticize only Republicans like former U.S. President George W. Bush, or was merely trying to attract media coverage?
Not quite. Roubini's forecast has not changed since President Obama's election and inauguration, and his once-extreme forecasts have proved to be more accurate than estimates by most economists.
China to weigh on stocksRoubini, the once obscure New York University economics professor who two years ago predicted the current global financial crisis and recession, now believes stock markets around the world will fall 20% from current levels, due to China's recession,
Bloomberg News reported Friday. Further, Roubini
believes China is already in a recession despite its most recent GDP report, which showed
6.8% growth in Q4 2008 and a 9% growth rate for 2008.
"Demand is falling in China, they're over-invested in capacity and there's a global supply glut," Roubini
told Bloomberg News. "It has very, very important implications."
Continue reading NYU's 'Dr. Doom' Roubini: Global stock markets to fall 20% more, due to China's recession
Posted Jan 21st 2009 10:00AM by Peter Cohan (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Business Machines (IBM), Economic Data, Federal Reserve, Financial Crisis
People are really losing their appetite for equities. In the wake of last year's 39% drop in the S&P 500 index, investors seem to be scrambling for some way to preserve the money they have -- and they lack an appetite for taking the risk of buying stocks. One way I measure this is that despite the 15% increase in my newsletter's stock picks in 2008, there's not much appetite for subscribing. I think most people have concluded that the plunge in stocks does not make them cheap because there is not likely to be earnings growth to prop them back up.
Among the biggest losers in the stock market is TARP. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated last week that the U.S. Treasury's $247 billion in TARP investments made in financial institutions -- including 262 banks -- through the end of December have lost 25% of their value. NYU economist Nouriel Roubini estimated that potential credit losses for U.S. banks could hit $3.6 trillion -- $2.2 trillion more than their $1.4 trillion in capital.
This suggests that investors are wise to stay away from bank equities. But there is vast uncertainty regarding how many other industries and companies will suffer the collateral damage of a bankrupt banking system. It seems likely that any industry -- such as automobiles, airplanes, big computers, MRI machines -- that depends on financing to close deals will be in deep trouble. And with 2.6 million lost jobs in 2008, so will any industry that depends on the recently or about-to-be fired workers in these companies. Are there any equities that could emerge unscathed?
Continue reading Are equities dead? Is IBM an exception?
Posted Jan 8th 2009 12:47PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Forecasts, Recession, Financial Crisis

Those investors, including market absolutists, who interpret the current economic state-of-things as just a typical downturn that a few tax cuts and some good, old-fashioned, free market-based supply side economics can solve, may want to stop reading the economic data points in the months ahead. At least, that's the view of one economist.
Nouriel Roubini, the once obscure New York University economics professor, who two years ago predicted the current global financial crisis and recession, said the worst is still ahead for the U.S. economy and for economies around the world.
"In the next few months, the macroeconomic news and earnings reports from around the world will be much worse than expected," Roubini wrote in
a column for Bloomberg News, adding that the aforementioned will put downward pressure on prices of risky assets.
Further,
Roubini said the U.S. economy will remain in recession through at least the end of 2009, with only a mild recovery starting in 2010 -- with GDP growth in the initial recovery year of 1%. For 2009, Roubini also forecasts continued recessions for the United Kingdom, euro zone, Japan and Canada. Russia will also fall into recession, as will Brazil, and China will experience a hard landing, with growth slowing to 5%, he said. India's economy also will slow substantially.
Continue reading NYU's 'Dr. Doom' Roubini: The worst is still ahead of us
Posted Dec 22nd 2008 6:33PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Indices, S and P 500, Recession
Nouriel Roubini, the once obscure New York University economics professor who two years ago predicted the current global financial crisis and recession, said those who are turning bullish on the U.S. stock market need to reassess the data.
Roubini told Bloomberg News he was "still quite bearish on U.S. and global equities." Despite losing much of their value already, Roubini thinks they
could still lose another 15-20% before any recovery beginning towards the end of 2009.
Caveat emptor: let the (stock) buyer bewareThe S&P 500 has fallen
more than 40% in 2008, and with a forward P/E of about 12, one could make the case that stocks are at least approaching cheap levels, based on the post-World War II P/E average of about 17. Economist Richard Felson is not of that camp.
"Cheap compared to what? Compared to bull market high P/Es of 25 or 26, yes, but that assumes a) a return to GDP growth levels experienced before the recession hit; and b) that stocks won't drop to lower levels. You can't assume either, so Roubini's downside forecast may represent 'discretion being the better part of valor'," Felson said. "This is a risky time to own stocks or increase positions. Stocks could become much cheaper, particularly if the recession lasts into Q3 2009."
Continue reading NYU's 'Dr. Doom' Roubini: Stocks may fall another 20% during recession
Posted Dec 15th 2008 12:55PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Ford Motor (F), General Motors (GM), Politics, Recession
Nouriel Roubini, the once obscure New York University economics professor who two years ago predicted the current global financial crisis and recession, said a bankruptcy filing by two of the Big Three automakers would deepen and lengthen the U.S. recession.
Roubini said if General Motors or Chrysler are forced into bankruptcy without a U.S. government rescue, the U.S. recession will extend well into 2010,
Bloomberg News reported"The economic ramifications of an outright bankruptcy would be severe," Roubini
told Bloomberg News, adding that the already-weak U.S. fundamentals mean that a recovery of growth will not occur until 2010.
General Motor's (NYSE:
GM) shares rose 15 cents to $3.81 on Monday at mid-day; Chrysler is privately held.
Ford's (NYSE:
F) shares rose 13 cents to $3.17.
Economist David H. Wang agreed with Roubini's assessment. "A GM bankruptcy would create a ripple-effect. The steel, aluminum, textile, auto parts supplier, and support sectors would be immediately impacted, resulting in large lay-offs within weeks. The credit market also would be effected, and obviously the stock market would not have a pleasant time," Wang said. "Chrysler would fold, Ford would also be hurt on a deterioration of sector confidence, and the industrial sector would experience its biggest decline in generations."
Continue reading NYU's 'Dr. Doom' Roubini: GM, Chrysler bankruptcies would extend recession well into 2010
Posted Nov 24th 2008 12:30PM by Joseph Lazzaro (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Press Releases, Politics
Nouriel Roubini, the once obscure New York University economics professor who two years ago predicted the current global financial crisis, now says the United States will likely face its worst recession in 50 years.
"I expect the worst recession in 50 years," Roubini
told Bloomberg News. "There will be a cumulative fall of output of 4% from the peak, and unemployment will jump to 9%."
Further, predicting that future U.S. Federal Reserve interest cuts will be ineffective, Roubini also reiterated that the U.S. economy needs "a major, aggressive fiscal stimulus, a $300-400 billion package, because private demand is collapsing."
Roubini's forecasts were once considered to be 'too harsh' or 'implausible,' due to what many economists and analysts argued were premises that were incorrect or off-the-mark. These conclusions earned Roubini the nickname 'Dr. Doom.' However, in less than two years, and especially in 2008, U.S. financial and economic fundamentals have deteriorated to such an extent, that at least in some metrics, conditions are closer to Roubini's forecasts than those of the many, mainstream economists who had scoffed at his predictions.
Continue reading NYU's 'Dr. Doom,' Roubini: U.S. recession could be worst in 50 years
Next Page >