After hitting a one-year high of $59.17 in January, the stock hit a one-year low of $46.19 in April. NVS opened this morning at $50.96. So far today the stock has hit a low of $50.74 and a high of $51.10. As of 12:10, NVS is trading at $50.95, up 0.82 (1.6%). The chart for NVS looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bull-put credit spread below the $45 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in just two months as long as NVS is above $45 at July expiration. Novartis would have to fall by more than 11% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
NVS hasn't been below $46 at all in the past year and has shown support around $50 recently. This trade could be risky if one of the company's drugs gets into trouble with the FDA, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find around $46, where it bottomed out about a month ago.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in NVS.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Lincoln Educational, Sonus Networks and Novartis were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Lehman upgraded Lincoln Educational (NASDAQ: LINC) to Overweight from Equal Weight based on improving student enrollment growth and valuation.
Merriman upgraded Sonus Networks (NASDAQ: SONS) to Buy from Neutral on the company's strong AT&T (NYSE: T) outlook and near-term upside potential from Japan. They believe shares can trade towards the $5-$6 range.
Bernstein raised Novartis (NYSE: NVS) to Outperform from Market Perform as they believe the company's diversification position it well to withstand future generic expiries.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Goldman Sachs added Burger King (NYSE: BKC) to its Conviction Buy List.
Credit Suisse upgraded Imperial Tobacco (NYSE: ITY) to Outperform from Neutral.
This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and check out other Battle of the Brands posts.
Tylenol is probably the most recognizable brand name for the pain reliever acetaminophen. In addition to being a pain reliever, Tylenol also reduces fevers. It was created in 1955 as Tylenol Elixir for children, and was the first aspirin-free pain reliever. It was initially available only by prescription, but became available without a prescription in 1960.
The product is made and marketed by McNeil Consumer Healthcare, a brand owned by Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ). Tylenol falls within the Consumer segment of J&J, which had sales of $14.5 billion in 2007. Over-the-counter pharmaceuticals represented $5.1 billion in sales, or 35% of the segment's sales.
Excedrin is a pain reliever that combines acetaminophen, aspirin, and caffeine. (Caffeine is known to enhance the effectiveness of aspirin and acetaminophen.) It's a product of Novartis (NYSE: NVS), a Switzerland-based company that bought the Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) consumer medicine business in 2005. Novartis produces a variety of consumer health care products, with 2007 revenue of $39.8 billion.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Google, Ross Stores and Novartis were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Jefferies upgraded Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) to Buy from Hold to reflect the company's "impressive" improvements in monetization in Q1, no signs of weakness from the economic downturn and upside potential from display, video and mobile.
Lehman upgraded Ross Stores (NASDAQ: ROST) to Overweight from Equal Weight and believes the company's 2008 guidance of 8-9% sales growth and up to 20% bps in margin expansion will prove conservative.
Morgan Stanley upped Novartis (NYSE: NVS) to Overweight from Underweight on valuation and expectations for positive news flow from the company's vaccine division.
OTHER UPGRADES:
JP Morgan upgraded Bladex to Neutral from Underweight.
William Blair raised Watsco (NYSE: WSO) to Outperform from Market Perform.
SunTrust (NYSE: STI) was upgraded at Baird to Neutral from Underperform.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Apple, Novartis and Infineon were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Morgan Keegan downgraded Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) to Underperform from Market Perform citing increased evidence of broad-based weakness in consumer technology spending in the U.S. and Europe. Additionally, the firm expects challenges in the company's education vertical due to state and local budget issues, which could lead to decelerating growth over the next 2-3 quarters.
Bear Stearns downgraded Novartis(NYSE: NVS) to Peer Perform from Outperform following the acquisition of Alcon (NYSE: ACL), as they find the deal expensive.
Credit Suisse cut Infineon (NYSE: IFX) to Neutral from Outperform to reflect weakness in the U.S. dollar.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Goldman downgraded Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) and Zions Bancorp (ZION) to Neutral from Buy.
Keefe Bruyette cut Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) to Underperform from Market Perform.
Baird downgraded Flowserve (NYSE: FLS) to Neutral from Outperform.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: The Brokers and Asset Managers sector, Pacific Sunwear and Metabasis Therapeutics were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Goldman upgraded the Brokers and Asset Management sector to Attractive from Neutral as they believe an inflection point has been reached for stocks with minimal credit exposure, or where exposure is marked to market. Goldman expects the problem to shift to regional banks and specialty finance from brokers. As such, Goldman upgraded American Express (NYSE: AXP), Metlife (NYSE: MET), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), Franklin Resources (NYSE: BEN), Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS) and NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) to Buy from Neutral.
Wachovia upgraded Pacific Sunwear (NASDAQ: PSUN) to Outperform from Market Perform based on valuation, merchandising improvements, operating efficiencies, favorable product mix, and reductions in underperforming categories.
Rodman & Renshaw raised Metabasis (NASDAQ: MBRX) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation given the potential for MB07803.
OTHER UPGRADES:
HSBC raised Novartis (NYSE: NVS) to Neutral from Underweight.
UBS (NYSE: UBS) was upgraded at Morgan Stanley to Equal Weight from Underweight.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Seagate, Nortel Networks and Ann Taylor were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Thomas Weisel downgraded Seagate (NYSE: STX) to Market Weight from Overweight as they believe the company's growth will be more muted given high existing market share and overall industry growth.
Baird downgraded Nortel (NYSE: NT) to Neutral from Outperform citing checks that indicate deteriorating US Enterprise sales in the last few weeks of Q1. The firm now expects companies to guide flat QoQ instead of up and to make cautious 2H08 comments.
Ann Taylor (NYSE: ANN) was cut to Neutral from Buy at Piper to reflect concerns over the LOFT division as well as consumer spending.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Citigroup lowered TJX Cos (NYSE: TJX) to Hold from Buy.
WestLB downgraded to Hold from Add Novartis (NYSE: NVS).
Just announced this morning, global drug manufacturer Novartis (NYSE: NVS) is offering to buy a minority stake in the world's largest eye-care firm, Alcon (NYSE: ACL), by buying the stake from food conglomerate Nestle (OTC: NSRGY).
Essentially, the deal is to happen in two parts. The first stage appears to be a purchase of a 25% stake in Alcon for around $11 billion. This purchase comes with an option to purchase an additional 52% stake for about $28 billion.
Novartis will pay $143.18 a share for the purchase of the 25% stake. The option to purchase the 52% stake will come at a fixed share price of $181 and can come between 2010 and 2011.
From a statement on Nestle's website, the food maker plans to use the proceeds to reduce debt and the cash will also "support opportunities for profitable growth in line with the group's nutrition, health and wellness orientation.''
Zack Miller is the managing editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund.
After hitting a one-year high of $59.17 in January, the stock hit a one-year low of $46.64 last week. NVS opened this morning at $50.21. So far today the stock has hit a low of $49.70 and a high of $50.44. As of 11:55, NVS is trading at $50.19, up $1.19 (2.4%). The chart for NVS looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a May bull-put credit spread below the $45 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.4% return in just 2 months as long as NVS is above $45 at May expiration. Novartis would have to fall by more than 10% before we would start to lose money.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Novartis, Waste Systems, AirMedia Group, and PAETEC Holding were today's noteworthy initiations:
Novartis (NYSE: NVS) was initated with a Neutral at Cowen, which cited the company's upcoming patent expirations.
Gabelli initiated Waste Systems (NASDAQ: WSII) with a Buy, as it believes consolidated operations in Florida, increased waste internalization, and continued price increases, should lead to expanding EBIT margins.
Oppenheimer initiated AirMedia Group (NASDAQ: AMCN) with an Outperform, as it believes that the Beijing Olympics will help the company acheive better than expected earnings.
Deutsche Bank initiated PAETEC Holding (NASDAQ: PAET) with a Buy, as the firm believes PATEC is well-positioned to benefit from improving industry conditions.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Wachovia started Seaspan (NYSE: SSW) with a Market Perform.
Needham initiated Memsic (NASDAQ: MEMS) with a Buy.
Oppenheimer started Intellon (NASDAQ: ITLN) with an Outperform.
Morgan Stanley initiated Dice Holdings (NYSE: DHX) with an Equal Weight.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Novartis, AIG, Diageo, and BEA Systems were today's noteworthy downgrades:
HSBC downgraded Novartis (NYSE: NVS) to Underweight from Neutral, as they believe the company's mid-single digit pharma sales growth is not sustainable.
AIG (NYSE: AIG) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform by Keefe Bruyette due to their concerns about the company's deteriorating profit trends.
Diageo (NYSE: DEO) was lowered to Neutral from Buy by Goldman Sachs to reflect a lack of near-term catalysts.
Deutsche Bank downgraded BEA Systems (NASDAQ: BEAS) to Hold from Buy, as they believe it is likely that the acquisition will close in April.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Live Nation (NYSE: LYV) was dropped to Hold from Buy by Morgan Joseph.
Jackson Hewitt (NYSE: JTX) was dropped to Neutral from Buy at FTN Midwest.
Roth Capital downgraded Collagenex (NASDAQ: CGPI) to Hold from Buy.
Credit Suisse lowered MFA Mortgage (NYSE: MFA) to Neutral from Outperform.
Shares of Swiss pharmaceutical maker Novartis AG (NYSE: NVS) are lower in early morning trading after the company announced its fourth-quarter net profit fell by 45%, hurt by a restructuring charge and higher generic competition.
Novartis said net profit attributable to shareholders slipped to $904 million from $1.65 billion in the fourth quarter. Net profit from continuing operations also plunged 42% to $931 million from $1.6 billion in the same period of last year. The results were below analysts' average estimate of a profit of $1.33 billion. Included in the company's figures was a $444 million charge related to Novartis's cost-savings program pressured earnings.
However, Novartis results weren't really a surprise, as analysts had anticipated the fourth quarter would be weak for the drugmaker after the company announced in December that it would cut 2,500 jobs worldwide. Its decision came on worries over ongoing challenges from generics producers. Novartis declared that the job cuts brought the $444 million fourth-quarter charge, but it expects to save $1.6 billion in costs each year until 2010.
Novartis AG (NYSE: NVS) shares are trading higher today after the company reported progress with Galvus, a drug the company is developing to treat type-2 diabetes. Shares are up slightly on this news even as another drug being developed by NVS and Momenta (NASDAQ: MNTA) was denied approval by the FDA. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on NVS.
After hitting a one-year high of $61.6 last November, the stock hit a one-year low of $51.19 in August. NVS opened this morning at $53.52. So far today the stock has hit a low of $53.07 and a high of $53.61. As of 11:20, NVS is trading at $53.10, up $0.17 (0.3%). The chart for NVS looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
Finland's Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK) -- with a global market share of 39 percent, the world's largest maker of cellphones -- posted third-quarter earnings nearly double earnings from Q3 2006, citing strong sales in Asia.
Novartis (NYSE: NVS) shares are trading higher today after the company announced that its high blood pressure drug Tecturna HCT works twice as well as the previous treatment. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on NVS..gif){kind=logo}
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