
With the recent collapse in the shares of NovaStar, a subprime mortgage lender, many investors learned an invaluable lesson: If you decide to buy a stock with a high short interest ratio, you do so at your own risk. I have always felt that short-sellers, on average, do far better research than longs. Short-sellers are famous for digging deep into financial statements (It was a Boston short-seller who originally uncovered red flags at Enron.), and performing down and dirty due diligence. Many long investors simply take corporate executives at their word, and rely on analyst research.
Herb Greenberg, a famous permabear who has uncovered accounting shenanigans at many companies over the years, was one of the first to raise questions about Novastar. Some investors however, seemed to relish the idea of waging a war with short-sellers. Newsletter writer Alan Newman directly poked fun at the shorts in December of 2004, saying "Given that the shorts have totally misplayed their hand and botched their analysis, the outcome could be disastrous for them." The stock was then at $50. It closed Friday at $8.48.
Greenberg's column also discussed the arrogant message board posts of short-bashing Novastar shareholders, one of the most outspoken of which was a former CAT scan machine salesman. The lesson for investors here is this: Always focus on the fundamentals of the business. Never invest in a stock because of a high short interest ratio (Some studies have shown that heavily-shorted stocks are more likely to under-perform the broader market) and, when in doubt, remember this: The shorts do very good research. If you're going to bet against them, you better have a good reason.