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Apple: Two more compelling reasons to buy

I wrote earlier today that the release of the Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone is coming in four short days. All the hype, build-up and excitement will likely generate real sales. But with all the hoopla surrounding iPhone, two other little tidbits are emerging in the story that further support the argument that Apple stock is still a buy.

It was announced Friday that Apple is now the third biggest retailer of music in the United States. Research firm NPD Group places Apple at number three in the pecking order having just surpassed both Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) and Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN), two rather formidable foes.The firm went on to state that Apple's US market share is now at 9.8%, all due to the success of the iPod.

The second fact that makes Apple a compelling buy is the gain in market share of the Mac notebook computer. Again, according to the NPD Group, Apple's Mac notebook climbed almost two full percentage points in market share, to 14.3%. That is a stunning gain in such a short period of time. This could set up Apple to beat revenue and earnings expectations for the quarter ending June 30. I estimate Apple's June numbers to be revenue of $5.3 billion and earnings per share of $0.70-0.71. If Mac sales continue at these levels, the estimates could prove conservative.

With all of these successful product releases, upgrades and market share gains in place, the stock at $123 is indeed a buy.

Georges Yared is the CIO of Yared Investment Research.

Sony's hard-to-hit target

In all the excitement about Sony Corp. (NYSE: SNE) doing much better during the current fiscal year, which ends next March, one of the details about the company's forecast may have been lost. Sony has to double the number of Playstation 3s that its sells. The fiscal year total will have to be 11 million, up from the 5.5 million that the company shipped last year. If Sony hits that number, the game division still loses over $400 million, but that will be about one-fifth of what it lost last year.

Making the forecast may be very hard. Some game industry analysts believe Sony will be aided by the number of new games coming out in 2007. But the Microsoft (NYSE: MSFT) Xbox and Nintendo Wii still outsell Xbox in most markets. And Microsoft will introduce the new version of its popular Halo game in September. That should push Xbox sales up further.

NPD Group, which tracks game console sales, claims that Sony sold about 500,000 PS3 units in the US in the first calendar quarter. That compares to over 1 million units for the Wii and 721,000 Xbox 360s.

According to Bloomberg, "Sony Corp. and video-game publishers will introduce 34 titles for the PlayStation 3 console in the next year as the company rebuilds sales in the money-losing unit." But bringing the games to market does not mean that they will sell. The PS3 is still expensive, selling for as much as $600.

Much of investor enthusiasm for Sony's shares is built around a recovery in its gaming business, and that is far from assured.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

A cool source for IT information

IT Facts is a blog that lists important IT data points for investors and other technology-focused folks.

One example from the site is on the U.S. smartphone market, which was up 230% in Q3 2006. The U.S. smartphone market has entered a significant growth spurt. October 2006 sales soared 230% from January of 2006, rising from 216,000 units to nearly 715,000. On a quarterly basis in 2006, smartphone sales have risen more than 4% to more than 6% of new phones sold in Q4 2006, according to NPD Group.

The following smartphones were top-selling in Q3 2006:
  • Motorola Q
  • Palm Treo 650
  • Verizon Wireless XV6700
  • Palm Treo 700p
  • BlackBerry 8700
The blog is backed by ZDNet.com a provides a broad range of tech news and data points. It is a required Add to Favorites for tech investors.

Dead iPod follow up

Ironically, a week after I declared my fourth generation 40 GB iPod dead after two years of use, the WSJ Personal Journal Section published a piece titled, "When iPods Die." This very relevant (at least to me) article described many of the problems I experienced with my iPod, and only added to my angst concerning the life expectancy of the ubiquitous media player.

Since I really only use the $250 device for running three days a week, I want it to last or at least give me a reason for flashing its "frowny iPod face" when I turn it on. To be honest, I don't need all the glitz and glamor that comes along with an iPod. I just want a reliable player that wont freeze (which it did after a year) whenever I ran, or die after two years.

Eventually I returned to the radio on my old Sony Walkman because I was so fed up with my 4G iPod. People have suggested I try the Shuffle, but don't even get me started. I've owned two so far, and both have gone belly up after 8 months.

Steve Dowling, a spokesman for Apple, based in Cupertino, Calif., says the rates which iPods fail is less than 5% are "extremely low" compared with other electronic devices. I would like to see the data that backs up this assertion knowing that my college dorm suite mate is having the same problem with his fourth generation iPod. This morning, after he read the WSJ article, he exclaimed to me, "people are taking notice!" I replied, yes, people are taking notice, but what is Apple going to do?

Probably nothing, seeing as "iPod shortcomings haven't impacted their sales any that I can tell," says Stephen Baker, an analyst at retail sales tracker NPD Group Inc.

Maybe this piece is overly harsh on Apple, but maybe it also will help open the company's eyes that loyalty will only go so far. With that said, I remain loyal having just purchased a new 30 GB video iPod just yesterday ($250 later). Now let's hope that it last more than two years (or maybe that's Apple's business plan: force customers to re-up every two years).

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+30.6910,464.40
NASDAQ+6.872,176.05
S&P 500+4.981,110.63

Last updated: November 26, 2009: 01:31 AM

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