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Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: BP, DB, NUE, TLB, X, YHOO ...

Analyst upgrades:
  • Citigroup upgraded Emergency Medical Services (NYSE: EMS) to Hold from Sell as it believes earnings estimates and valuation multiples could expand should Congress extend insurance coverage to the currently uninsured. The firm raised its target on shares to $38 from $29.
  • JPMorgan upgraded Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) to Neutral from Underweight on expectations the company's fixed income business will drive earnings.
  • KeyBanc expects U.S. Steel (NYSE: X) to benefit from a global recovery in flat-rolled products and a potential stabilization in energy end markets. The firm upgraded shares to Buy from Hold.
  • Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Soleil.
  • Pinnacle Financial (NASDAQ: PNFP) was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Stephens.
  • BP Plc (NYSE: BP) was raised to Buy from Hold at ING Group.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: BP, DB, NUE, TLB, X, YHOO ...

Steel: Six stocks with strong turnaround potential

"The steel stocks tend to go through boom and bust cycles depending on global economic activity; they have been pummeled over the last year, as the global economy slowed," notes turnaround expert George Putnam.

In his The Turnaround Letter, he explains, "But the news about steel is not all bad." Indeed, he believes some steel companies are poised for a turnaround. Here's his review of 6 leading steel production companies.

"Weakness in two big steel consuming industries, autos and construction, has been particularly troublesome for the steelmakers.

"However, there is evidence that steel inventories are gradually being worked off to low levels. There are also signs that economic activity in China, which is a huge consumer of steel, will not fall off as far as some economists initially feared.

Continue reading Steel: Six stocks with strong turnaround potential

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: CSX, JBL, MRVL, NUE, STT, X ...

Analyst upgrades:
  • Keefe Bruyette upgraded American Capital (NASDAQ: AGNC) to Outperform from Market Perform on expectations the company's book value and earnings are trending higher. The firm raised its target price to $22.
  • Jefferies upgraded Spartan Stores (NASDAQ: SPTN) to Buy from Hold as it believes the company's EPS and sales momentum will return with the Michigan economy likely bottoming out. Despite upgrading, the firm lowered its target price to $18 from $24.
  • Morgan Stanley upgraded U.S. Steel (X) to Overweight from Equal Weight due to its favorable product mix and leverage to improving operating rates.
  • CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
  • Mueller Water (NYSE: MWA) was raised to Perform from Underperform at Oppenheimer.
  • Marvell Technology (NASDAQ: MRVL) was upgraded to Outperform from Underperform at JMP Securities.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: CSX, JBL, MRVL, NUE, STT, X ...

Nucor (NUE) rises on ore price cut

NUE logoNucor (NYSE: NUE - option chain) shares are rising today after iron-ore miner Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) agreed to cut its iron ore prices for Japan's Nippon Steel Corp by more than 30%. The steelmakers have already been driven lower as demand for their product has slowed, but now they are less likely to be charged boom-time prices for their raw materials on top of that. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on NUE.

NUE opened this morning at $39.44. So far today the stock has hit a low of $39.14 and a high of $41.41. As of 11:35, NUE is trading at $41.25 up 1.16 (2.9%). The chart for NUE looks bearish and S&P gives NUE a negative 2 STARS (out of 5) sell ranking.

Continue reading Nucor (NUE) rises on ore price cut

Mergers not heaven sent: Citi, GM, Chrysler, Sirius, AOL, Yahoo!, Microsoft

Almost two years ago I posted a downbeat opinion about a merger that went through and one that did not. However the latter is being discussed again, unbelievable! SEE: GM/Chrysler or Sirius/XM: Two losers don't equal a winner.

In the story I rant about all the things that would improve General Motors (NYSE: GM) and where it is lacking -- noting that being bigger and having more models, less focus and more debt, are not among them. Eventually Cerberus made the big bet and lost. You can be sure they would like to play that hand over again.

Now all three U.S. car companies are in trouble with billions of dollars of losses and huge debt overhangs. All three begged for, and received some amount of federal relief and will need more to sustain themselves though 2009 as it proves to be every bit as tough as 2008 was. Despite everything, GM and Chrysler have been pondering a merger again. BAD IDEA! GM does not need the distraction, they need more focus -- nothing but intense focus!

Continue reading Mergers not heaven sent: Citi, GM, Chrysler, Sirius, AOL, Yahoo!, Microsoft

Options Update: Steel producers volatility stays elevated; NUE, AKS, MTL

Nucor (NYSE: NUE), an operator steel mills and marketer of steel products, closed at $32.27 Tuesday. NUE December option implied volatility of 91 is above its 26-week average of 73 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

AK Steel (NYSE: AKS), a producer of steel products, closed at $6.86 Tuesday. AKS December 7.5 straddle is priced at $2.40, January 7.5 straddle is priced at $3.50. AKS January option implied volatility of 158 is above its 26-week average of 102 according to Track Data, indicating larger price movement.

Mechel Steel (NYSE: MTL) closed at $4.59 Tuesday. MTL is a Russian mining, steel and power company. MTL December 5 straddle closed at $2.25, January 5 straddle closed at $3.15. MTL April option implied volatility of 185 is above its 26-week average of 117 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Earnings highlights: Exxon, Starbucks, Viacom, Comcast, Sirius, Kraft and others

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

For more highlights from this week, see: General Motors, Motorola, Disney, Sony, Visa, CBS and others

Upcoming quarterly reports include Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM), Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), Jack-in-the-Box (NYSE: JBX), Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WFMI), Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S), Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE), and Blockbuster (NYSE: BBI).

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage.

Nucor beats earnings estimates

By Alex Kolb, Zack's Investment Research

Nucor Corporation (NYSE: NUE) recently reported record second-quarter earnings of $1.94 per share, beating the consensus estimate by nearly 8% and topping the year-prior $1.14. Consolidated net sales of $7.09 billion also reached a record level, exceeding last year's $4.17 billion. For income, the company is yielding 2.3%, which well ahead of the industry average.

Company Description

Nucor and its affiliates, which make the most steel in America, manufacture steel products. The company's operating facilities are primarily in the U.S. and Canada. Nucor also brokers ferrous and nonferrous metals, pig iron and HBI/DRI; supplies ferro-alloys; and processes ferrous and nonferrous scrap. The company is also North America's largest recycler.

Continue reading Nucor beats earnings estimates

The week in preview: Expectations as the earnings crunch begins

As the second quarter earnings crunch begins in earnest this week, the bear market has investors jittery and prognosticators spinning out dire warnings. In the wake of mixed results from Alcoa (NYSE: AA) and General Electric (NYSE: GE) kicking things off last week, here's a look at what Wall Street is expecting from many of the companies scheduled to report this coming week.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting the following companies to report a rise in earnings when compared to the same period of the previous year.

  • Nucor Corp. (NYSE: NUE): $1.80 EPS (36.6%) on sales of $6.4 billion (+53.0%)
  • Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG): $4.74 EPS (24.9%) on sales of $3.9 billion (+41.6%)
  • Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK): 56 cents EPS (23.2%) on sales of $19.9 billion (+17.8%)
  • CSX Corp. (NYSE: CSX): 90 cents EPS (21.1%) on sales of $2.9 billion (+12.8%)
  • Altera Corp. (NASDAQ: ALTR): 27 cents EPS (18.5%) on sales of $346.7 million (+8.4%)
  • IBM (NYSE: IBM): $1.82 EPS (+17.6%) on sales of $25.9 billion (+9.0%)
  • eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY): 41 cents EPS (17.1%) on sales of $2.2 billion (+18.0%)
  • W.W. Grainger Inc. (NYSE: GWW): $1.46 EPS (17.1%) on sales of $1.7 billion (+8.0%)
  • Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT): 47 cents EPS (17.0%) on sales of $15.7 billion (+17.0%)
  • Honeywell International Inc. (NYSE: HON): 94 cents EPS (17.0%) on sales of $9.2 billion (+7.9%)

Continue reading The week in preview: Expectations as the earnings crunch begins

Titans of steel: The 'Iron Five'

"Global steel producers are thriving, and their stocks are hitting new highs," note Yiannis Mostrous and Roger S. Conrad, who add, "But the best is yet to come."

In the industry-leading Personal Finance, the two advisors explain, "We're still in the early stage of a truly global bull market cycle for steel, and the companies best positioned to take advantage are headed a lot higher." Here, they look at their "Iron Five."

"As is the case with other building blocks of economic growth, steel is enjoying explosive demand from the developing world. And with the world expanding as never before, steel companies are literally selling as fast as they can produce.

"In the August 2007, we highlighted five first-rate global steel producers. Since then, they've returned an average of 67.4%, versus a decline of 3.7% for the S&P 500.

"The Iron Five are five picks that we believe are ripe for even bigger gains. Like the last group, these stocks are often volatile. They're also vulnerable to the possibility of a general stock market slide and most of all to a dip in global demand growth, particularly from China.

Continue reading Titans of steel: The 'Iron Five'

Earnings highlights: Toll Bros., National Semiconductor, Dr Pepper, Guess and others

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

See also: Earnings highlights: Wal-Mart, Lehman Bros., Take-Two, Ciena, Trina Solar and others

Also, continued real estate losses are expected to hurt the quarterly reports of banks such as like Wachovia (NYSE: WB), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), and National City (NYSE: NCC). And Steven Mallas wonders why Playboy (NYSE: PLA) shares have tanked since its last earnings report.

Upcoming results to watch for include Krispy Kreme (NYSE: KKD), Pall Corp. (NYSE: PLL), Pep Boys (NYSE: PBY), Korn Ferry (NYSE: KFY), and Casey's General Stores (NASDAQ: CASY).

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage.

US Steel (X) boosted by updated Nucor outlook

X logoUS Steel (NYSE: X) shares are trading higher after competitor Nucor (NYSE: NUE) raised its earnings outlook for its upcoming second-quarter earnings. The previous forecast of 1.55 to 1.60 was lifted by 20 cents to 1.75 to 1.80. Analysts were looking for 1.69 and an upside surprise by NUE should signal good things for X as well. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on X.

After hitting a one-year low of $74.41 in August, the stock hit a one-year high of $185.55 last month. X opened this morning at $177.00. So far today the stock has hit a low of $175.25 and a high of $182.22. As of 12:55, X is trading at $183.10, up 9.88 (5.7%). The chart for X looks bullish but deteriorating slightly, while S&P gives the stock a negative 2 STARS (out of 5) sell rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bull-put credit spread below the $140 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.4% return in just seven weeks as long as X is above $140 at July expiration. US Steel would have to fall by more than 23% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

X hasn't been below $140 since March and has shown support around $170 recently. This trade could be risky if the stock has risen too quickly and has a correction, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find at $150, where it formed a bottom in May.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in X or NUE.

Analyst downgrades: First Solar, Pride International, EnerSys

MOST NOTEWORTHY: First Solar, Pride International and EnerSys were today's noteworthy downgrades:

  • Friedman Billings downgraded First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) to Underperform from Market Perform citing margin risk concerns, as the company aggressively pursues utility-scale projects in the US. The firm said risks are not reflected in share valuation near $300 and could be a source of disappointment but could also lead to downside EPS risk.
  • Wachovia said Pride International (NYSE: PDE) has the least potential EPS upside vs. peers given the company has contracted the highest percentage of its floater days into 2012E. Additionally, the firm views a takeout by Seadrill as unlikely. Shares were cut to Underperform from Market Perform.
  • Merriman downgraded shares of EnerSys (NYSE: ENS) to Neutral from Buy as they believe the strong Q4 results were driven by a one-time benefit from lead procurement mechanics and that data does not support the company's sustained margin expansion story.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

  • Citigroup lowered Intuit (NASDAQ: INTU) to Hold from Buy.
  • UBS downgraded Nucor (NYSE: NUE) to Neutral from Buy.
  • Smart Modular (NASDAQ: SMOD) was downgraded at Oppenheimer to Perform from Outperform.
  • The Airlines Sector was cut by Soleil to Neutral from Outperform.

Nucor (NUE) to raise $3 billion to make acquisitions

NUE logoNucor (NYSE: NUE) shares are falling after the company announced its plans to raise roughly $3 billion by selling stocks and bonds to raise money to buy other companies and pay off debt. The company intends to sell 25 million shares for more than $2 billion. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on NUE.

After hitting a one-year low of $41.62 in August, the stock has risen to hit its one-year high of $83.56 just last week. This morning, NUE opened at $79.13. So far today the stock has hit a low of $77.38 and a high of $79.61. As of 12:30, NUE is trading at $79.46, down $1.86 (-2.3%). The chart for NUE looks bullish but deteriorating slightly, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a June bear-call credit spread above the $90 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.4% return in five weeks as long as NUE is below $90 at June expiration. Nucor would have to rise by more than 14% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

Continue reading Nucor (NUE) to raise $3 billion to make acquisitions

Nucor (NUE) flat on positve WSJ steel outlook

NUE logoNucor Corp. (NYSE: NUE) shares opened higher but are now flat on the day despite an article in the Wall Street Journal over the weekend said the steel industry should continue its strong growth. The article cites growing global consumption, as well as shrinking exports from Russia and China. If you agree with the WSJ and think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on NUE.

After hitting a one-year low of $41.62 in August, the stock hit a one-year high of $76.48 last week. NUE opened this morning at $73.66. So far today the stock has hit a low of $73.24 and a high of $75.60. As of 12:20, NUE is trading at $73.92, unchanged from Friday's close. The chart for NUE looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bull-put credit spread below the $55 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 5.3% return in just three months as long as NUE is above $55 at July expiration. Nucor would have to fall by more than 25% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

NUE hasn't been below $55 at all since January and has shown support around $67 recently. This trade could be risky if the global economy shrinks and reduces the worldwide demand for steel, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find from its 200 day moving average, which is currently around $60 and rising.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in NUE.

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Last updated: November 10, 2009: 07:41 AM

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