A minor caution flag for the Obama administration: President Obama's approval rating as surveyed by a major poll has fallen below 50% for the first time since his inauguration.

Obama's approval rating fell to 48% in polling done by Quinnipiac University. The Quinnipiac University Poll surveyed 2,518 registered voters November 9-16 and has a margin of error of +/- 2%. The 48% approval rating is down from a 59% approval rating in February/March.

Further, the percentage of registered voters who approve of Obama's handling of the economy also declined, to 43% in November from 47% in October. On the economy, the approval rating was split along party lines: 13% of Republicans approved, compared to 38% for Independents, and 77% for Democrats.

When you spend $787 billion, there's a lot of pressure to show results. So, there's no surprise that success is being proclaimed across the country. States are saying that they've used the federal stimulus package money to create or save more than 388,000 jobs this year. Teachers, construction workers and other professions have realized the upside of stimulus cash according to reports from 33 states and Puerto Rico, with the remainder of the results being released on Friday.

Of course, the numbers "should be taken with a grain of salt," says Ethan Pollack of the Economic Policy Institute. The states were tasked to count the jobs created or protected, but the results have been of dubious accuracy. This doesn't mean the stats can't provide fodder to people on both sides of the aisle.

Columbia Business School's Frank Lichtenberg says the data shows a solid economic impact, and the Obama administration's Council of Economic Advisors believes the stimulus spending has taken care of between 600,000 and 1.1 million jobs.

And, there are those who disagree.

Terrifying talking points out of the White House this week: President Obama called on bailed-out banks to lend more money to small businesses.

Speaking on his weekly radio address, Obama said that "These are the very taxpayers who stood by America's banks in a crisis, and now it's time for our banks to stand by creditworthy small businesses and make the loans they need to open their doors, grow their operations and create new jobs."

Health care reform's long and winding road continues, as debate will begin soon on several bills in the House and Senate. Each chamber is likely to approve a bill, with the all-important conference committee set to reconcile the two after each chamber's vote.

Let's put on the old political science hat for a moment to see if history and research can tell us anything about the likely shape of the health care reform bill at this stage of the U.S. public policy process.

The House, Senate, and conference committee (CC) outcomes are labeled: Probable, Possible, Doubtful.

The Wall Street Journal reports (subscription required) that "Administration officials on Sunday criticized Wall Street banks over their high compensation packages and their lobbying against plans to tighten financial regulations. But the administration's tone appeared muted compared with attacks made earlier in this year, as Democrats -- with an eye toward the 2010 midterm elections -- seek to put a positive spin on recent economic developments."

It's easy to understand why the Democrats are toning down the rhetoric: They passed an unprecedented corporate welfare package, and pledged to clamp down on compensation practices that encourage excessive risk. Then Obama appointed an executive pay czar who doesn't have any real power and, aside from begging Ken Lewis to toss back a few scraps to create the illusion of a crackdown, the Democrats have done literally nothing to curb compensation practices at firms that are existing on the taxpayer dime.

Investors, like the former great New York Yankee Manager Joe Torre, now manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers, have to be both aware of the current game situation, and be a few innings ahead, working through the permutations of what might occur.

With the above in mind, from an investor-relevance standpoint, what's next on the public policy front, after health care reform?

Congressional Republican rhetoric aside, President Obama does not come close to being a socialist, so says one of the highest ranking socialists in the U.S.

Frank Llewellyn, National Director of the Democratic Socialists of America, the country's largest socialist organization, told PoliticsDaily.com that President Obama is not in their ranks. "He's not any kind of socialist at all," Llewellyn said, observing that the president is "a market guy."

The U.S. dollar continued to decline today, and has helped push gold prices up sharply in today's action.

The dollar has been very weak lately, and as more concern mounts of the dollar's strength more investors are rushing into the precious metal, which traded up as high as $1,069.70 today, and is currently up $1.70 an ounce to $1,059.20.

Is it time to rethink the U.S. job creation paradigm? It may very well be.

The Obama administration is said-to-be weighing whether to propose a corporate tax credit for new hires and extending unemployment insurance and Cobra benefits in light the nation's job creation drought, The Wall Street Journal reported(subscription required.)

The Obama administration has announced that it is imposing tariffs on Chinese tire imports. The three-year plan will be have 35% tariffs the first year, 30% tariffs the second year, and 25% tariffs the third year.

This is good news for U.S. tire manufacturers and bad news for Chinese tire makers. American consumers will pay more for tires over the next three years than they would if they could buy cheap Chinese tires, but it will be a benefit for U.S. big labor and domestic tire makers as their products will be more competitive.

The best strategy for President Obama and congressional Democrats regarding health care reform may be to "go it alone" -- to pass a bill that has Democratic Party support, with maybe one or two Republicans.

Further, the era of bipartisan cooperation is over, if it ever really began. The U.S. Congress is as polarized as it ever has been in the post-World War II era, with ideologues dominating each party. President Obama's effort to forge a post-partisan politics was admirable, but it did not get very far, largely due to a Republican Party that's dominated by a conservative base, but also due to a Democratic Party committed to largely liberal goals.

Given the recent controversy over Obama's address to school children Tuesday, I was interested to see the speech released on the White House web site. While not all schools will be showing the speech, it is still likely to have a huge audience of many students across the nation. I looked to see which companies might benefit from this exposure.

Overall, Obama encourages kids to study hard, be responsible and overcome the many obstacles they face, while relating his own difficulties from school.

Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) gets a positive mention as an example of the kind of company to strive to build.

The iPhone also makes it into the speech, to the benefit of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL).

J. K. Rowling -- author of the Harry Potter series -- gets included, a plus for her publisher, Scholastic Corp. (NASDAQ: SCHL), and Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), which has released the movies based on the books.

If you are getting tired of reading all the news on the government's "cash for clunkers" program, don't worry... the Obama administration announced this afternoon that the popular incentive program will come to an end this Monday.

There has been a lot of controversy over the program as of late, but one thing is for sure, car buyers have definitely been taking advantage of the program since it launched last month.

Everyone knew that the government's "cash for clunkers" program would be enticing to potential auto buyers, but no one, including the U.S. government could have predicted just how popular the program would be.

Auto makers and dealers have seen a vast response to the program, but now some dealers are starting to wonder when the government is going to keep its end of the deal, and have decided to remove themselves from the popular program.

There was in increase in construction of single family homes in July, marking the fifth straight month for such an increase.

It should come as no surprise, after we learned yesterday that homebuilder confidence had rose to a new 12-month high. According to the commerce department, construction on new single family homes rose 2%, and permits for future construction jumped an impressive 6% during July.