Yesterday my 2009 portfolio closed up 201% for the year. It has been an interesting journey, and while it is rather self congratulatory to discuss it, there are lessons to be learned.

Before I review some of the reasons I was able to do this I want to make it clear that I do not think this can be easily repeated; I look at the portfolio every day thinking this is too good to be true, and we all know what that usually means.

Analyst upgrades:

• Deutsche Bank upgraded Garmin (NASDAQ: GRMN) to Hold from Sell as it believes the company's second half of 2009 is tracking better than expected due to retailer restocking. Deutsche raised its target on shares to $33 from $15 but thinks Garmin's long-term trends remain unfavorable.
• Goldman upgraded Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO) to Buy from Neutral citing potential EPS improvement driven by the Home division. Fortune Brands price target to $49 from $45. Note that the firm downgraded General Mills to Neutral from Buy.
• Oppenheimer upgraded FPIC Insurance (NASDAQ: FPIC) to Outperform from Perform to reflect the company's acquisition of Advocate MD and management's commitment to share repurchases. The firm set a $49 price target on the stock.
• PPG Industries (NYSE: PPG) and Olin Corp. (NYSE: OLN) were upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS.
• Synovus (NYSE: SNV) was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA/Merrill.
• Take-Two (NASDAQ: TTWO) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray.

Money market accounts and certificates of deposit are safe, but they provide very little return on your investment. This fact, and the invigorated stock market, provoked one of my bankers, Dobrinka, at the local Santa Monica Wells Fargo branch, to ask for advice on how I would invest $25,000 if I was just starting out.

This is a common question although the starting point in terms of cash varies. It certainly makes a difference how old the person is, their general knowledge about investing and finance, and the particulars of their financial statement.

Here is what I suggested sticking to regular themes I have written about before and broadly speaking would be a conservative approach emphasizing safety, diversity, liquidity, dividends and the potential for growth far exceeding cash in the mattress or in a money market account. I also think that it is important for beginners to educate themselves so my suggestions include an educational aspect.

In a race, when the yellow caution flag is out drivers are prohibited from advancing their position, and are subject to penalty.

In the stock market no such rule applies. When the caution flag goes up it is a sign you may be nearing an opportunity to advance your position, and it would be foolish not to do so. I think the market has definitely had the caution flag up the last two weeks as we enter earnings season.

I have written several articles regarding watch-lists encouraging our readers to be prepared for buying opportunities, and as I look at my watch-list it appears that many stocks are nearing prices that would make it attractive to add to my position.

Most people probably have not heard of the Olin Corp (NYSE: OLN), even though it has been in business in the United States since 1892 (127 years!), and has been selling ammunition under the 140-year-old Winchester brand since it acquired the company 76 years ago.

While Olin has been around a long time, it does not get much attention. It is only capitalized at $1 billion and much of what it sells is far from glamorous. It also does more wholesale than retail business. However, investors should remember this: Olin pays a safe 5% yield!

Analyst upgrades:

• Banc of America/Merrill upgraded Lincoln National (NYSE: LNC) to Buy from Underperform and raised its target to $17 from $10 citing expectations that the company will "qualify for and accept TARP funding."
  
• Credit Suisse upgraded AU Optronics (NYSE: AUO) to Outperform from Neutral as it believes inventory levels are low end demand is better than expected.
  
• JP Morgan upgraded Shaw Group (NYSE: SGR) to Overweight from Neutral. The firm views the recent pullback in shares as a buying opportunity given the company's attractive nuke position and expected ramp in government spending.
• Patterson-UTI Energy (NASDAQ: PTEN) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
  
• Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX) was raised to Overweight from Market Weight at Thomas Weisel.
  
• Stryker (NYSE: SYK) was lifted to Sector Perform from Underperform at RBC Capital.

Analyst upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded Tyco (NYSE: TYC) shares to Buy from Hold on valuation as they believe the recent weakness has created an attractive entry point. The firm lowered its target price to $25 from $26.
  
• Deutsche Bank raised SAP (NYSE: SAP) to Buy from Hold on valuation as it finds the risk/reward attractive at current levels.
  
• Oppenheimer upgraded Onlin Corp (NYSE: OLN) to Outperform from Perform on valuation as it sees strong support at $10 and potential upside to $20. The firm has a $20 target on the stock.
• JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) and Blackstone (NYSE: BX) were upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette.
  
• Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE) was raised to Neutral from Sell at UBS.
  
• Goldman added AT&T (NYSE: T) to the Conviction Buy List.

The savvy investor knows that, in addition to the known performers, one has to locate those 'off the radar' stocks -- potential gems and overlooked performers that don't receive much publicity. And with the aforementioned in mind, Olin Corp. is worth a review.

Olin Corp. (NYSE: OLN) is a diversified producer of chlor-alkali chemicals and ammunition.

Analysts like Olin's chlor-alkali business (75% of 2008 revenue), including products caustic soda and chlorine, among others. An ammunition business rounds-out OLN's diverse industrial plate. Look for the ammunition business to continue to benefit from strong U.S. Government orders, in the immediate years ahead. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for OLN are $1.97/$2.03.

The risks? The commodity chemicals segment is cyclical -- some products are used in pulp and paper processing and to keep swimming pool water clean, for example -- so analysts will look for signs of a slower-economy-induced dip in orders in Q1/Q2 2008. Analysts are also keeping an eye on Olin's skilled labor costs.

Given the market's continued choppy / consolidating pattern, it makes sense to add a defensive stock or two, and one worth an evaluation is conglomerate Olin Corp.

Olin Corp. (NYSE: OLN) is a diversified producer of brass metal products, chlor-alkali chemicals, and ammunition.

Analysts like Olin's chlor-alkali business (21% of 2006 revenue), including products like caustic soda and chlorine, among others. An impressive brass operation (67% of 2006 revenue), and an ammunition business (12% of revenue) rounds-out OLN's diverse industrial plate. Look for the ammunition business to continue to benefit from strong military orders, in the immediate years ahead. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for OLN are $1.50/$1.46.

The drawbacks? The commodity chemicals segment is cyclical -- some products are used in pulp/paper processing and to keep swimming pool water clean, for example -- so analysts will look for signs of a slower-economy-induced dip in orders in Q1/Q2 2008.

The First Call mean rating for OLN is: Buy. [7 firms.] Mean 2008 target: $24.00. [high: $27, low: $20.]

Stock Analysis: Olin Corp. is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than two years should be rewarded from OLN's shares. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $13.

DISCLOSURE: Joseph Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.