Philip Morris (NYSE: PM) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Friedman Billings upgraded shares of Principal Financial (NYSE: PFG) to Market Perform from Underperform as they believe the company's capital buffer could keep outrunning credit losses.
Friedman Billings also upgraded Office Max (NYSE: OMX) to Outperform from Market Perform. The firm believes the risk of recourse to Office Max from the Timber Notes formerly backed by Lehman is low and that any litigation by noteholders will have a low level of success.
Citigroup upgraded CF Industries (NYSE: CF) to Buy from Hold on valuation following the recent weakness but lowered their target to $113 from $128.
Analog Devices (NYSE: ADI) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merrill Lynch.
Poor Office Depot (NYSE: ODP). Have you checked the price of the retailer's stock lately? It closed on Wednesday with a value of $2.10. It actually rose over 11% that day upon news of its third-quarter earnings. I can assure you that I wasn't buying the stock.
The numbers didn't tell the story of a company that would make a worthy addition to a stock portfolio hell bent on hanging tough during a market meltdown. Instead, the 7% revenue decrease and the loss per share, on an adjusted basis, of $0.01 relate a tale of a business that one should ignore. At least that's the way I see things. Comps in the North American retail division were horrible. The return on invested capital as calculated by management took a significant drop. Let's face it, Office Depot just isn't cutting it. Granted, the economy is wreaking havoc on the business, but come to think of it, I don't really have a good picture of what the brand is supposed to be about. Well, I know it's about office supplies, but why should I shop there as opposed to Staples (NASDAQ: SPLS) or OfficeMax (NYSE: OMX)? Good question, huh? Looks like the retailer needs to get the message out as to why the shopping experience at its locations is of a higher value compared to the office stores mentioned. For that matter, I'm sure a lot of people use Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) to pick up office supplies too. My point is that management needs to step up its game and create some better marketing programs for its stores. Be creative like Staples. That "easy button" device is turning into a cool cultural icon (well, I might be exaggerating, but I think it's creative, at any rate).
Earlier, I said "at least that's the way I see things" in terms of my opinion about the sad state of Office Depot, but I suppose I should point out that there are obviously a lot of investors out there who don't see a lot to love when it comes to this chain. The stock is down over 63% on the one-month period at the time of this writing. I see no reason to speculate on this business. The economy isn't getting better, and Office Depot just doesn't seem to be in a strong position. What will it take to turn things around? Like I say, in addition to hoping for an improved macro climate, come up with a better advertising campaign, build a more intense connection with the consumer. Office supplies are commodities, but shopping experience is not. That's the opportunity. Differentiating a brand from the competition based on things like customer service and an easy time of it at the checkout register is a traditional strategy in the retail industry. If Office Depot can offer something in that area, it should let me know about it. Since just about every retailer is struggling to keep the traffic coming into their chains, now is the time to exploit the other guy's weakened state and grab every customer possible.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Norfolk Southern, OfficeMax and PetroQuest Energy were today's noteworthy upgrades:
JP Morgan upgraded Norfolk Southern (NYSE:NSC) to Overweight from Neutral based on leverage to export coal and the tighter truckload market.
Credit Suisse upgraded OfficeMax (NYSE:OMX) to Outperform from Neutral citing the company's clean balance sheet, positive cash flow, and limited downside.
UBS upgraded PetroQuest Energy (NYSE:PQ) to Buy from Neutral citing valuation and production catalysts. The company's target was raised to $30 from $25.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Piper Jaffray (NYSE:PJC) was upgraded to Market Weight from Underweight at Thomas Weisel.
Corning(NYSE:GLW) was upgraded at Merrill to Buy from Neutral.
HSBC lifted BP Plc (NYSE:BP) to Overweight from Neutral.
Calgon Carbon (NYSE:CCC) was raised to Hold from Sell at Morgan Joseph.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Nova Chemical, Tomkins Plc and Office Max were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Citigroup downgraded shares of Nova Chemical (NYSE: NCX) to Sell from Hold as they believe the ethylene cycle is trending downward due to economic uncertainty. Citigroup lowered their target to $21 and $25 and added the stock to the Top Picks Live List as a Sell.
Goldman cut Tomkins Plc (NYSE: TKS) to Sell from Neutral as they believe the slowing economy could impact sales.
Piper downgraded shares of OfficeMax (NYSE: OMX) to Neutral from Buy following the negative pre-announcement by competitor Office Depot (NYSE: ODP) on concerns of deteriorating industry fundamentals. Piper lowered their target on OfficeMax to $11 from $22.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
National City (NYSE: NCC) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Merrill.
Danaher (NYSE: DHR) was removed from Goldman's Conviction Buy List.
Liberty Interactive (NASDAQ: LINTA) was lowered to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: iRobot, Felcor Lodging and Office Max were today's noteworthy initiations:
Stanford initiated iRobot (NASDAQ: IRBT) with a Buy rating and $18 target and believes better-than-expected military robot sales will allow the company to beat 2008 consensus estimates.
Felcor Lodging (NYSE: FCH) was initiated at Keefe Bruyette with a Market Perform rating and $12.50 target. The firm believes material upside is unlikely given the company's above average suburban and airport exposure.
Soleil assumed Office Max (NYSE: OMX) with a Hold rating and $17 target, as they believe macroeconomic challenges and heightened competition will limit near-term upside in the stock.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Verizon, AT&T, Invitrogen and General Electric were today's noteworthy downgrades:
UBS downgraded Verizon (NYSE: VZ) and AT&T (NYSE: T) to Neutral from Buy citing the weak economy and increased wireless competition.
Banc of America downgraded shares of Invitrogen (NASDAQ: IVGN) to Neutral from Buy as the company's acquisition of Applied Biosystems (NYSE: ABI) alters their investment thesis. The company's target was cut to $38 from $50.
JP Morgan downgraded General Electric (NYSE: GE) to Neutral from Overweight citing further risk to earnings and dislocation from necessary portfolio management in 2009.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Office Max (NYSE: OMX) was cut to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse.
Goldman lowered Ryanair (NASDAQ: RYAAY) to Sell from Buy.
WebMD Health (NASDAQ: WBMD) was downgraded to Sell from Source of Funds at ThinkPanmure.
OfficeMax Inc. (NYSE: OMX) shares are trading higher this morning after the company reported a 24% rise in fourth-quarter profit, helped by lower costs and expenses. Excluding one-time items, OMX earned 65 cents per share, well above Wall Street forecasts of 52 cents per share. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on OMX.
After hitting a one-year high of $55.40 in last February, the stock hit a one-year low of $17.12 in January. OMX opened this morning at $23.87. So far today the stock has hit a low of $23.25 and a high of $24.90. As of 10:30, OMX is trading at $23.75, up $1.61 (7.3%). The chart for OMX looks bullish but deteriorating slightly, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an April bull-put credit spread below the $17.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. This particular trade will make a 4.2% return in just two months as long as OMX is above $17.50 at April expiration. OfficeMax would have to fall by more than 26% before we would start to lose money.
OMX hasn't been below $17.50 by more than a few cents in the past year and has shown support around $23 recently. This trade could be risky if the US economy continues to worsen, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find at its 50-day moving average, which is around $23.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in OMX.
While earlier this month, OfficeMax (NYSE: OMX) reported a solid third quarter due largely to cost-cutting and the weak dollar, office supply leader Staples' (NASDAQ: SPLS) third quarter report this week was more like that of second-place rival Office Depot (NYSE: OPD)'s third-quarter report last week. That is, profits and domestic same-store sales fell. However, Staples managed to beat expectations (low expectations though they were), sending share prices up after being dragged down with OfficeMax and Office Depot following their reports.
Staples reported Q3 net income of $274.5 million, or 38 cents per share, compared with $289.9 million, or 39 cents per share, in the same period last year. A $38 million charge from the settlement of an employee class-action suit shaved 4 cents per share from Staples' earnings, yet the latest quarter's profit was still 42 cents per share, beating the consensus EPS forecast of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial, who had expected 40 cents per share.
As Office Depot executives did last week, Staples executives said they expect weak consumer spending due to the housing slump and credit market difficulties to continue into the new year. Yet so far Staples' share price has risen, from a 52-week low of $19.69 before the Q3 report, to close at $23.51 on Wednesday. That's about seven cents shy of halfway from that low back to the 52-week high of $28.00 from mid December of 2006.
The consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial is for earnings of 48 cents per share for the fourth quarter (up from 46 cents a year ago), or $1.42 per share for the year (up from $1.28 a year ago). The consensus recommendation is to buy Staples, with forecast growth of 20.4 percent over the next three to five years.
This morning, office goods retailer Staples Inc. (NASDAQ: SPLS) reported its second quarter earnings results, matching analyst estimates for its most recent quarter. Analysts had been expecting to see the company earn 25 cents per share, and that was exactly what Staples came through with, as net income was $178.8 million.
While it is good to see the company hit analyst estimates, the stock is still going to be under some pressure this morning after offering a lower full year earnings growth forecast from its previous estimates. In earlier statements, the company had put forth full year guidance of somewhere in the range between 15% and 20% growth. Now the company is predicting that earnings will grow at "about" 15%.
In premarket, the stock is trading down 1.3%, dropping 31 cents to $23.00.
According to Bloomberg, the Nasdaq Stock Exchange (NASDAQ: NDAQ) is considering selling its 31% stake of the London Stock Exchange, effectively giving up on trying to acquire the company. This money would be used to sweeten the company's bid for Sweden's OMX and help Nasdaq's financial condition.
What kind of money will the Nasdaq be able to receive for the LSE? Recently, the LSE's market value on the London Stock Exchange was $5.2 billion. Assuming Nasdaq sells its 31% block for a 20% discount, the Nasdaq would stand to get nearly $1.3 billion for the stake. Unfortunately, Nasdaq paid $1.33 billion for this stake originally so, unless the Nasdaq can receive the full value of its stake (which is unlikely), it stands to lose money on the deal. According to the company, this sale should produce about 35 cents in EPS next year.
Nasdaq would use this money to buy back stock, retire debt, and increase its offer for the OMX. According to the Bloomberg article, about $1 billion of the proceeds will be used to improve the financial condition of the company (via share buybacks and retiring debt) -- a move that should improve EPS on two fronts.
OfficeMax Inc. (NYSE: OMX) opened at $36.00. So far today the stock has hit a low of $35.61 and a high of $36.87. As of 11:00, OMX is trading at $35.98, up $0.87 (2.4%).
After hitting a one year high of $55.40 in February, the stock fell to a year low of $32.08 late last week. Shares rose yesterday following a better than expected earnings report, and the stock continues to climb today after JP Morgan upgraded OMX from neutral to overweight. Technical indicators for OMX are bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a September bull-put credit spread below the $30 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk and leverage returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 8.7% return in just seven weeks as long as OMX is above $30 at September expiration. OMX would have to fall by more than 16% before we would start to lose money.
OMX has not been below $30 at all in the past year and has shown support around $32.80 recently. This trade could be risky if OMX continues to slide, but after a positive earnings report yesterday, this stock could possibly see some upward momentum build.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. DISCLOSURE: At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in OMX.
Friedman Billings believes Symantec's (NASDAQ: SYMC) fundamentals are about to show significant improvement over the next year and upgraded shares to Outperform from Market Perform.
JP Morgan raised OfficeMax (NYSE: OMX) shares to Overweight from Neutral on valuation.
Qwest (NYSE: Q) was upgraded to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer, expecting revenue growth to be driven by the improving enterprise business. JP Morgan added Qwest to its Focus List.
Metlife (NYSE: MET) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merrill, based on valuation...
OTHER UPGRADES:
ValueClick (NASDAQ: VCLK) was upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform at Pacific Crest.
Penn West (NYSE: PWE) was upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform at RBC Capital.
Friedman Billings upgraded Cubic (AMEX: CUB) to Market Perform from Underperform.
Morgan Stanley upgraded shares of Jones Apparel (NYSE: JNY) to Equal Weight from Underweight.
Broadcom (NASDAQ: BRCM) was raised to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer at CIBC.
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Analyst upgrades:
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