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Top Picks 2007: My report card

Next week marks the beginning of 2008 and my two high school kids will also receive their first semester report cards, the moment of truth for them. It got me to think perhaps it was time to grade my own performance for 2007 on BloggingStocks. So here goes, the A's to the F's...

The A's:

  • My recommendation of Aquantive Corp at $24 and stating that Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) needed to buy this company. It did at $66.50. Many readers and members of my investment web site made a near three bagger in less than six months.
  • Recommendation of Color Kinetics at $19 back in May to only watch it get bought out at $34 by LG Phillips (NYSE: LPL) of the Netherlands.
  • Recommendation of Kyphon at $37 and have Medtronic (NYSE: MDT) buy it at $71
  • Recommendation of Opsware at $8 back in March and then again in May at $9 and have Hewlett-Packard Compaq (NYSE: HPQ) buy it out at $14.50
  • Recommending Apple ( NASDAQ: AAPL) all year and re-iterating the buy since $80, now at $198 with a new price target at $300 for 2008
  • Writing the exhaustive series of the Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years back in May/June. Many of the stocks have been bought out and several are up more than 20%.

Continue reading Top Picks 2007: My report card

Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years: three new names

I wrote the series the Top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years back in May and June of this year. Since the series finished we had three companies go the way of acquisition: Opsware (NASDAQ: OPSW), Color Kinetics (NASDAQ: CLRK) and Kyphon (NASDAQ: KYPH). All three have been or are about to close on their respective deals and will vanish from our list of 25. The good news is the premiums were outstanding and any investor who bought these stocks after reading the initial write ups is walking away with over 50% profits in a few short months!

But onward and upward: Drum roll please.....the three new stocks that I feel could be in the top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 Years include: eHealth, Inc. (NASDAQ: EHTH), Bankrate (NASDAQ: RATE) and Fuel Tech (NASDAQ:FTEK).

eHealth is a $570 million market capitalization company headquartered in Mountain View, California. The company operates a multi-web site platform that offers its customers more than 7,000 health insurance and related products. The company is licensed in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Through its ehealth.com and ehealthinsurance.com web sites, customers can price out regular medical, dental and vision insurance. The company also provides options for student-health care insurance as well. My estimates for calendar 2007 is for revenues of $87 million and earnings per share of $.49. For 2008 I envision revenues of $115 million and earnings per share of $.68. As health care insurance is fast becoming a major political as well as economic issue, eHealth may be the winner in finding the best policies at the best price for consumers and small-to-medium size businesses.

Continue reading Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years: three new names

Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years: Blue Coat Systems (BCSI) -- update

In May and June, I wrote a series on what I think could be the top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years. It was a fun exercise and a lot of work. Since the series finished in mid-June, we've been knocked down from 25 stocks to 22 stocks: Opsware (NASDAQ: OPSW), Kyphon (NASDAQ: KYPH) and Color Kinetics (NASDAQ: CLRK) are all being acquired for significant premiums by obviously much larger companies.

We have another on our list that, although it's not being acquired, the stock has doubled in value these past 2 1/2 months. Blue Coat Systems (NASDAQ: BCSI) was written up on June 8. The stock was trading at $44, but it's now at $84.80. Blue Coat reported an absolutely explosive July quarter. Revenues came in at $62.4 million versus Street consensus of $58 million, representing a 71% year-over-year increase and a 15% up-sequentially from the April quarter.

The wide-area-network (WAN) optimization product set is gaining mainstream momentum. The even better news for Blue Coat Systems is that it is about to embark on an excellent new product cycle. The company saw bookings, pipeline and deferred revenues all go up substantially this past quarter and provide tremendous visibility going forward.


Continue reading Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years: Blue Coat Systems (BCSI) -- update

Checkfree, another one of my picks, gets bought out

In my book about Baby Boomer investing I highlight what I feel are the five major growth industries going forward. The industries are health care, alternative energy, technology, communications and lifestyle. I also mention 42 companies within those industries that could be the leaders, the game changers. Since the book has been published, five of the 42 stocks I wrote about are being acquired!

The latest one to go is Checkfree (NASDAQ: CKFR). Fiserve (NASDAQ: FISV) has announced its $4.4 billion bid. Checkfree made our banking-transactional life much easier. The other four that will be part of larger companies are Opsware (NASDAQ: OPSW), Color Kinetics (NASDAQ: CLRK), aQuantive (NASDAQ: AQNT) and Kyphon (NASDAQ: KYPH). Other than aQuantive, the other three were also part of my Top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years series.

As the 42 companies are down to 37, it causes some reflection for the future. Great, emerging companies will always be on the radar screen of larger, well-financed suitors. If growth cannot be internally generated through research and development efforts, larger companies will need to acquire growth and next generation products or technology. With interest rates still historically low, the borrowing necessary to buy these young, up-and-comers is not a significant issue. Investors will reward mature companies if they acquire intelligently and strategically.

Continue reading Checkfree, another one of my picks, gets bought out

Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years: What happened?

I wrote the series, Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years during the months of May and June. It was a labor of love as I examined more than 300 companies to come up with what I thought would be the best of the best going forward. The series came to me as a result of a USA Today article back in early May detailing the top 25 stocks of the PAST 25 years. So many of the names were surprising, as many were obvious.

Since I finished the series, three of the top 25 are about to be acquired by larger, well-funded companies. Color Kinetics (NASDAQ: CLRK) will be bought by Royal Philips Electronics (NYSE: PHG) for $791 million, or $34 per share. Opsware (NASDAQ: OPSW) will be swallowed by Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) for $1.45 billion or $14.25 per share and finally, Medtronic (NYSE: MDT) will acquire Kyphon (NASDAQ: KYPH) for $3.9 billion or $71 per share. All three transactions are for 100% cash -- no stock, which in itself is very interesting. But what happened and why are these three going to melt into larger organizations?

For emerging growth companies to become truly great, several factors need to be in place for shareholders to benefit. 1) Great and talented senior management needs to be committed and feel the passion of its company's direction. 2) A large addressable market, preferably global in nature, and 3) the opportunity to operate under the radar screen of larger, needy companies. Well, two out of three ain't bad!!


Continue reading Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 Years: What happened?

Top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years: Medtronic to buy Kyphon

Well, there goes another one of our top 25 for the NEXT 25 years! This morning it was announced that giant medical device company Medtronic (NYSE: MDT) will acquire Kyphon (NASDAQ: KYPH) for $71 a share in an all cash transaction. Great deal for Medtronic and a great deal for Kyphon shareholders. Unfortunately, that takes our NEXT 25 list down to 22 companies left. Hewlett-Packard is acquiring Opsware and Philips of the Netherlands is acquiring Color Kinetics (NASDAQ:CLRK). Now, I have to find the three replacement companies to complete our list of 25!

Medtronic, I have contended for years, is the premiere medical device company in the world. The company is the franchise player in the cardiac world with a multitude of products. The staple of products ranges from cardiac surgical tools to pacemakers and implantable cardiac defibrillators. Medtronic's spinal franchise has had its share of struggles. The company has been set on working with younger patients with spinal afflictions. Kyphon, on the other hand, is very strong in working with older patients with its products that address osteoporosis. This affliction attacks nearly 700,000 woman annually in the United States alone. Kyphon's minimally invasive surgical devices and patented bone-cement were fast becoming the products of choice by surgeons.

The acquisition by Medtronic puts Kyphon's excellent product suite into the best distribution sales and marketing force the medical device industry has ever seen.

Meanwhile, I will continue my research to provide you with 3 more companies to round out our list of the top25 stocks for the NEXT 25 years.

Georges Yared is the CIO of Yared Investment Research.

Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 years: HP buying Opsware

During the months of May and June I wrote a series titled, "The Top 25 stocks for the NEXT 25 Years." I identified 25 companies with an opportunity to change the landscape of their respective industries for the NEXT 25 years and of course, have explosive gains for the shareholders. Since I finished the series, we are down to 23 stocks.

Opsware Inc. (NASDAQ: OPSW) has accepted a cash bid from Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) for $14.25 a share. It's a wonderful premium of 40% from Friday's closing price. Shareholders of Opsware should be delighted as the stock has more than doubled in the past six months. So why am I disappointed?

Opsware is the undisputed leader in the burgeoning field of server and networking automation. Its software products allow information technology (IT) experts to load and modify programs on huge server farms in a matter of hours, where it used to be a matter of days. This offers a massive savings in time and money for large organizations or governments to manage their IT assets very quickly and efficiently. Opsware was basically first to the market with this leading-edge software. Its customer base was the who's who of the Global 1000.

Continue reading Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 years: HP buying Opsware

Analyst initiations 6-21-07: AUXL, LAMR, OPSW and TXRH

MOST NOTEWORTHY: The systems technology sector, Auxilium Pharmaceuticals (AUXL) and BioSante Pharm (BPA) were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Auxilium Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: AUXL) was initiated with an Outperform rating at Cowen, which said AUXL's lead candidate, AA4500, is in pivotal testing for Dupuytren's contracture, which could be a $400M+ revenue opportunity.
  • BioSante Pharmaceuticals (AMEX: BPA) was initiated with a Positive rating at Susquehanna, as the firm is positive on BPA's growth prospects for the transdermal estrogen market, upside potential from the female dysfunction market, and valuation.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
  • Morgan Stanley initiated shares of Lamar Advertising (NASDAQ: LAMR) with an Overweight rating and $77 target.
  • SunTrust Robinson Humphrey initiated shares of Texas Roadhouse (NASDAQ: TXRH) with a Neutral rating.
  • Morgan Joseph initiated shares of Metalico (AMEX: MEA) with a Hold rating.
  • Stifel Nicolaus initiated shares of Tenet Healthcare (NYSE: THC) with a Sell rating and a $5 target.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Opsware Inc: Simplifying information technology

When it comes to enterprise IT operations, every bit of automation you can get is a plus. A leader in the art of devising efficient automation systems is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.

Opsware Inc. (NASDAQ: OPSW) provides data center software products that automate key server, software, and application operations. The company's programs re-allocate resources, control software updates, manage provisioning and automate change cycles for servers and business applications. The firm sells its products directly and markets them through resellers and systems integrators. Customers include General Electric (NYSE: GE), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Nortel Networks (NYSE: NT) and Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT).

Opsware pleased investors late last month, when it reported Q1 results that beat top line analyst estimates and matched predictions on the bottom line. Management also guided Q2 and FY08 expectations to levels in-line with analyst ranges. Deutsche Securities subsequently upgraded the shares to "buy" and declared an $11 price target. The news popped the shares out of a May "cup" into the June "handle" of a Cup & Handle formation. The price is now showing signs of completing the pattern with a bullish rise from the right-hand side of the "handle."

Brokers recommend the issue with two "strong buys," four "buys" and seven "holds." Analysts expect a 14.6% growth rate, through the next year. The OPSW Price to Book ratio (6.38) and Sales Growth rate (28.66%) compare favorably with industry averages. Institutional investors hold about 78% of the outstanding shares. Over the past 52 weeks, the stock has traded between $6.23 and $9.90. A stop-loss of $7.75 looks good here.

Larry Schutts is a contributing editor for Theflyonthewall.com and the Vice-President of Stockwinners.com.

The new young bulls of technology: Who will be the Microsoft of the 21st century?

During the 1990's and early 2000's, the world witnessed a technology boom as had never before been experienced. Small, innovative companies founded by creative, visionary entrepreneurs became mega-billion dollar corporations with multi-billion dollar market capitalizations. The stories came at us like glorious movie scripts: the hometown nerd rises to super stardom: Bill Gates, Paul Allen, Michael Dell, Larry Ellison, John Chambers and many more newly-crowned titans were appearing in the society pages, as well as the business pages. Technologies were created that simplified our daily lives and enhanced productivity to levels never before thought of. Almost every human being was benefited by new, affordable technologies. Cars, TVs, appliances, PCs, cell phones,and several other products became fun, simple to use and affordable.

Along the way, massive fortunes were made by founders, employees, mutual funds and individual shareholders. Wall Street analysts also gained rock start status--maybe it was being in the right place at the right time.

Then came the nuclear winter for technology in late 2000-2001. Corporations and governments found themselves in the position of assessing what they bought and needing to monetize all these new technology assets. New spending came to near standstill. All of the investment geniuses who made the "easy" money were now facing losses and scrambling for the exits. Investing went back to the rules and principles that we all learned as beginners again.

No question about it: Microsoft, Oracle, Cisco, Dell, IBM, Hewlett-Packard Compaq, Intel and others are great American corporations. They collectively represent a few trillion dollars worth of market cap and multiple billions of annual profits. However, each titan of the 80's and 90's is facing its own issues of trying to re-grow the revenue and earnings base -- trying to recapture the magical secret sauce -- reminiscent of the older baseball pitcher who has lost 4-5 mph off his fastball and is trying to make it work with pitch location and craftiness.

But, investors are looking at the new, emerging group of companies that could dominate this decade and the next.

Continue reading The new young bulls of technology: Who will be the Microsoft of the 21st century?

Former Disney exec bets on Opsware

Bill Martin, editor of FindProfit, looks at IT automation software maker Opsware (NASDAQ: OPSW) – and a "high profile" insider buy in the stock from former Disney (NYSE: DIS) exec, Michael Ovitz.

Martin notes, "Michael Ovitz, a director at the company, a longtime Hollywood power broker, and the one-time president of Disney, picked up 58K shares at $6.40 on March 14th, increasing his holdings to 941,300 shares."

The advisor points out that the purchase occured after the stock hit a 52-week low following its recent earnings report.

And this wasn't the first time Ovitz went into the market to buy shares; Martin notes that it was the seventh time since April 2004 that Ovitz has purchased shares of OPSW. This latest buy, he observes, was Ovitz's first purchase since June 2006.

Overall, he notes, Ovitz has bought 605,000 shares since May 2005, at an average price of $5.86, investing approximately $3.6M.

Martin says, "Ovitz has a history of well-timed buys at OPSW. He has managed to get in at favorable prices, and the stock has traded higher in the months following each of his previous six buys."

Like Ovitz, Bill martin has bought shares of Opsware on several occasions, He has traded the stock three times in his model portfolio. Now, following Ovitz's latest buy, he has decied to add the stock back to his own portfolio.

He states, "I would now argue that OPSW is one of the best growth stories in software today. While still not cheap, we believe the stock will grow into its valuation. TWe consider it a high-growth company with strong upside potential. he latest purchase buy Ovitz only adds to our conviction that the stock is a buy at current levels."

For more stock picks from the leading financial newsletter advisors, visit Steven Halpern's free daily website, TheStockAdvisors.com.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+30.6910,464.40
NASDAQ+6.872,176.05
S&P 500+4.981,110.63

Last updated: November 25, 2009: 05:16 PM

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