In this economy, with its geopolitical risk and event risk, expect short-term profit taking, and that's probably what occurred recently with auto parts giant O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY), which I first wrote about here on May 18, 2009, at a price of $37.02.

O'Reilly retreated about 10% from $63 to roughly $55 in the first two months of this year, and it looks like profit taking: ORLY had traded below $33 in 2010.

That said, investors who didn't catch the first O'Reilly elevator up should view the pullback as a buy opportunity.

Auto parts chain giant O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY), which I first wrote about here on May 18, 2009, at a price of $37.02, may represent the play of the year.

O'Reilly recently took out $60 resistance, and will likely head higher, but it's thoroughly understandable if those who bought in at $37 want to take some profits off the table at this stage.

However, those who can tolerate the risk can retain their full position and go for an even bigger gain with ORLY.

Analyst Upgrades

• Best Buy (BBY) was upgraded to top pick from outperform at RBC Capital, as the firm thinks the company's valuation is inexpensive while it will perform well during the holiday season.
• Credit Suisse upgraded CF Industries (CF) to outperform from neutral, citing favorable fundamentals in nitrogen and phosphate markets.
• Canadian Solar (CSIQ) was raised to buy from hold by Jefferies, which cited expectations for higher selling prices next year and cost savings from sourcing more components internally.
• BMO Capital upgraded RC2 Corp. (RCRC) to outperform from market perform as the firm believes that RC2's baby products are performing better than previously expected.
• Ericsson (ERIC) was upgraded to neutral from underperform at BofA/Merril.
• ProLogis (PLD) was upgraded to buy from hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
• Constellation Energy (CEG) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie.

This is a market for boring stocks. By that I mean, given that objective economic events seem to diametrically alter the investing landscape every few days or so, you need a few "totally un-sexy" plays that perform despite the aforementioned tumult.

And auto parts giant O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY), which I first wrote about here on May 18, 2009 at a price of $37.02, fits the bill.

O'Reilly's 2010 revenue should increase 9% to 12%, including revenue from an acquisition. Same store sales should increase 5% to 7%. Margins will likely increase.

There are the obvious stock plays, and then there are those low-profile ones that turn out to be gems. Totally unsexy auto parts giant O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY), which I first wrote about here on May 18, 2009 at a price of $37.02, is in the latter category.

With more than 3,400 stores, O'Reilly is in an auto care sweet spot. The used car maintenance trend in the United States isn't ending anytime soon. Further, frugal consumers in the U.S. can delay getting maintenance done on their used vehicles for only so long -- critical maintenance must be performed, eventually. Also, a shortage of reasonable interest rate financing for new cars provides another tailwind for parts sales: People are turning to used cars for their next vehicles.

Analyst Upgrades

• Stephens upgraded Schlumberger (SLB) to overweight from equal weight with an $80 price target, citing valuation and the company's international activity.
• Roth Capital upgraded Synutra International (SYUT) to buy from hold, citing the company's improved outlook, increased market share and valuation. The firm has a $27 target on shares.
• Oppenheimer upgraded Progressive (PGR) to perform from underperform as it believes the company's focus on growth could move shares higher in the near-term.
• Inergy Holdings (NRGP) was upgraded to buy from hold at Wunderlich.
• Best Buy (BBY) was upgraded to hold from sell at Societe Generale.
• Vale SA (VALE) was upgraded to buy from hold at Canaccord.

Auto parts giant O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY), first written about here on May 18, 2009, at a price of $37.02, is one of those low-profile companies that shareholders want to remain low-profile. Leave the glitz and pomp to other companies. So long as ORLY produces solid earnings growth, that's all that matters.

And it goes without saying that I still like the shares. The used-car maintenance trend in the United States isn't ending anytime soon. Also, frugal consumers in the U.S. can delay getting maintenance done on their used vehicles for only so long. Critical maintenance must be performed, eventually. Further, the U.S. auto fleet's increasing age provides another tailwind for sales. The First Call FY2009/FY2010 EPS estimates for ORLY are $2.24 to $2.61.

As so often happens at this point in the earnings season, focus begins to shift to the results from retailers. And the world's largest retailer is among those that step into the spot light this week.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are looking for Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT), which was aggressively competitive during the holiday shopping season and also recently announced a new global strategy, to report fourth-quarter earnings of $1.12 per share, up from $1.03 per share in the year-ago period. Revenue for the three months that ended in January is expected to have risen 4.9% to $114.5 billion. The full-year forecast calls for earnings of $3.61 per share (+5.3%) on $409.1 billion in revenue (+0.9%). Walmart has not missed earnings estimates in the past five quarters.

So this earnings season hasn't turned out as bad as some had feared. In fact, we've seen some pretty stellar results from the likes of Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN), Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), and Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO).

Then there was the Fed's Beige Book report, which suggested that the U.S. economy had stabilized -- and even improved a bit in some sectors.

Well, the earnings crunch rolls on this coming week leading up to Halloween. Do analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect more treats or tricks from coming quarterly reports?

In the current market frugal consumer plays carry the day. And that's why I'm reiterating my Buy rating for O'Reilly Automotive (NASDAQ: ORLY), first recommended on May 18, 2009 at a price of $37.02.

Nothing creative about the O'Reilly's value story: it's the third largest automotive aftermarket parts supplier (alternators, starters, fuel pumps, brake shoes, pads, filters etc.), with 3,285 stores in 38 states.

The earnings crunch rolls on this coming week, with quarterly reports expected from Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH), Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), Kellogg (NYSE: K), MasterCard (NYSE: MA), Motorola (NYSE: MOT), Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S), Travelers (NYSE: TRV), Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), U.S. Steel (NYSE: X), Viacom (NYSE: VIA), Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS), and many others.

Below are some reporting companies for which analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters have high hopes. What does that mean? Well, all of them are expected to report double-digit earnings grown in the most recent quarter. They have tended to offer positive surprises in recent quarters. They have long-term EPS growth forecasts of greater than 10%, and they have earnings multiples that are higher than their industry or sector averages, or higher than at least one top competitor. And they all have First Call consensus recommendations to buy.

It goes without saying that this market remains a stock picker's market. Select the wrong stock, and there's a 30-40% haircut up ahead; select the correct stock, and you're positioned for the recovery with modest downside exposure. For a chance at the latter, consider O'Reilly Automotive (NYSE: ORLY).

Nothing fancy schmancy about the O'Reilly value story: it's the third largest automotive aftermarket parts supplier (alternators, starters, fuel pumps, brake shoes, brake pads, filters, etc.), with 3,285 stores in 38 states.

Analyst upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded Patriot Coal (NYSE: PCX) to Hold from Sell on easing credit and liquidity concerns following the company's guidance. The firm raised its target on the stock to $7.50 from $4.
  
• UBS upgraded Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) to Buy from Neutral and raised their target to $90 from $65 as they expect pent-up replacement demand in enterprise to drive 2010 estimates higher and for the consumer smartphone opportunity to grow in 2009 and 2010.
  
• Goldman upgraded Suncor (NYSE: SU) to Conviction Buy from Sell and raised their target to $33 from $25 citing their bullish view on crude oil for 2H09 and 2010 and in the company's ability to lower operating and capital costs in the oil sands region.
• Canadian National (CNI) was raised to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.
  
• Applied Micro Circuits (NASDAQ: AMCC) was lifted at Oppenheimer to Overweight from Neutral.
  
• QLogic (NASDAQ: QLGC) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird.

Auto parts company O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ: ORLY- option chain) is one of the newest additions to the S&P 500 Index (SPX). Standard & Poor's announced late Thursday that ORLY will join the venerable index after the close of trading on March 26, where it will replace Noble Corp. (NYSE: NE).

The news caps off a pretty good week for ORLY; on Wednesday, Robert W. Baird initiated coverage of the stock with an "outperform" rating, and the equity tagged a new 52-week high of $36.17 in Thursday's session.

Leo Fasciocco is a technician focused on "breakout" stocks; in his Ticker Tape Digest, two recent such breakout ideas were both from the out-of-favor auto parts sector: O'Reilly Automotive (NASDAQ: ORLY) and Autozone (NYSE: AZO).

Noting the recent strength in these auto parts stocks -- both have recently rose to new 52-week highs despite the market's sharp declines -- the advisor explains, "Auto parts stocks may see strong product demand as more people keep their car and not buy a new one."

"O'Reilly Automotive is one of the largest specialty retailers of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the U.S, with annual revenues of $3.1 billion.