What's one good short-hand for investors concerning whether the current, very-young U.S. economic recovery can last?

Keep an eye on the price of gasoline. And that's not too hard to do, for most Americans, given the abundance of gas stations in most areas. If you're far from one, you can get a snapshot of prices regionally, by visiting gasbuddy.com.

Under these economic conditions, you take the good news where you can get it, and one such data point occurred in Nigeria.

A cease fire by Nigeria's oil rebels, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), went into effect on Sunday, following a meeting between Nigerian President Umaru Yar'Adua and MEND Leader Henry Okah, Bloomberg News reported.

Something's got to give regarding the price disparity between oil and natural gas.

Natural gas, although off its lows for the year, is still cheap at about $4.85 per million Btus (MMBtu), largely due to record stock piles, as a result of the U.S. recession and probable increased reserves in the years ahead, stemming from shale gas.

You can tell the oil market's in rough shape when companies are drilling more to pull in smaller profits. This is the situation in which Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) finds itself, with lower energy prices pushing down the cash that comes through the door.

So, its revenue was up for the most recent quarter, but earnings were down. The $262 million that came to the bottom line is 61% lower than the profit for the same quarter the year before.

What could complicate the U.S. Federal Reserve's job to boost the economy? The price of oil. That's correct: the price of crude -- the world's most important commodity.

The reason? The impact of a high price of oil on prices throughout the U.S. economy.

Oil prices hit a 6 week high today, as cold weather gripped most of the country.

Over the weekend the nation was hit with a cold front that reminded oil traders that the high demand winter season is on its way, and could help reduce a lot of the oversupply that the market is currently looking at.

Energy/oil billionaire T. Boone Pickens wants those investors who are expecting oil's price to drop amid an oil supply glut to know they are likely to be on the wrong side of history, and fairly soon.

Pickens Tuesday reiterated his forecast that oil prices will pass $75 per barrel before the end of 2009, and move considerably higher in 2010, CNBC reported.

Don't be confused by the rhetoric you read and see in the media. We are definitely in a deflationary spiral. Who says so? And what data are you looking at?

Let's read a few quotes from leading traders and analysts:

• Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz said: "Deflation is definitely a threat right now."
• Charles Evans, Federal Reserve bank president says: "Disinflationary winds are blowing with gale force effect."

This recession certainly has had its unique characteristics: the longest contraction (at least 18 months) since the end of World War II, the first U.S. median home price decline in at least 40 years, and OPEC production discipline.

Amid slack demand and rising inventories, OPEC, excluding Iraq, cut production for the second consecutive month, decreasing average production by 10,000 barrels per day from August (bpd) to 26.045 million bpd, according to a survey of oil companies, producers and analysts, Bloomberg News reported Thursday.

Oil prices have risen sharply today, despite news that oil inventories rose more than expected last week.

Traders pushed oil up $2.92 a barrel Tuesday to $69.63 even though oil inventories rose by 2.8 million barrels last week verse analyst estimates for a rise of 2.1 million barrels.

Oil prices dropped a bit today, as investors weigh news that consumer confidence took a hit in September.

Today's move was not a sizable one, but further evidence that investors are concerned over just how strong the current economic recovery really is. News came out today that consumer confidence is down in September as more Americans are concerned over the weak job market.

Commodities in general and oil and gold specifically are considered a good hedge against inflation, a weak dollar and flat trending stocks. However, these markets can also be very volatile as oil and gold traders are finding out this week.

Oil inventories are up (not good for prices) and demand from refineries is down, which has put some additional downside pressure on the commodity. A stronger dollar the last two days has compounded oil's problems and sent prices below $67 a barrel.

The oil industry has been working hard to find new oil reserves, and so far this year the efforts have been paying off.

It has been a year with some major discoveries that have put the oil industry in a good position to make it the year with the highest level of new discoveries since 2000.

A big reason for the increase in discoveries is improvements in technology that has allowed oil hunters to drill deeper and break through tougher rocks than they were previously able to do.

Traders are selling oil off today after a government report that showed inventories rose last week.

Going into this week's inventory report from the Energy Information Administration, analysts had been expecting to see oil inventory drop by around 2.25 million barrels. What today's report actually showed though was an increase last week by 2.8 million barrels.

New York Times (NYSE: NYT) Columnist Thomas Friedman returned to the subject of the United States' inordinate use of oil, and the problems it creates.

Friedman asks: are we really so tough a people? If we were, we'd tax gasoline much more, build many more nuclear power plants (like France), and store waste deep in Yucca Mountain, which is totally safe -- all with the goal of propelling a paradigm shift in the nation's energy policy, one that would feature dramatically less oil consumption.