Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the just released book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth And Sleep Well At Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.

Oil's surge is over. Having reached almost $150 a barrel, it now trades near $100, as of this writing. It may be lower when you read this. That's good news on many fronts. But lower oil prices aren't enough to get this economy back on track. For that, real estate, and in particular home sales, and employment need to rebound in a meaningful way. Here's why.

Let's first look at oil. It's used for many different products, from gasoline to lubricants to tires, etc. Lower oil prices will make filling up at the gas station much less painful. That will give consumers a little more money in their wallets every week. It also lowers the cost for manufacturers using petroleum in their products.

LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK - option chain) shares are falling today despite the company's announcement of an eight-year contract with Japan's Sumitomo Corp. to supply solar cell parts. Under the deal, LDK will supply about 750 megawatts of multicrystalline silicon wafers to Sumitomo. However, most solar stocks are dropping today as crude oil futures are lower again at $106, and almost dipped below $105 earlier this morning. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on LDK.

This morning, LDK opened at $45.57. So far today the stock has hit a low of $41.70 and a high of $45.57. As of 12:20, LDK is trading at $43.20, down $2.78 (-6.0%). The chart for LDK looks neutral and S&P gives LDK a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bear-call credit spread above the $60 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in 6 weeks as long as LDK is below $60 at October expiration. LDK would have to rise by more than 38% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

BIG hasn't been above $35 at all inthe past year and has shown resistance around $34.90 recently.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in LDK.

This charming pic-toon of moderation comes from one of my talented long time friends, Ron Overmyer, who has allowed me to share it with our readers. He does a weekly email blast and this is one of his tamer commentaries, one that might give us pause to consider what it means to be objective.

I thought I would take a moment to shout out to any moderates in the audience and say that I too have worried that some of my colleagues may have sacrificed their reputations for objectivity by writing some posts that could be viewed as borderline paid political announcements. Some readers have quipped that this should be included in the disclosure. However, on the occasion that this is true, it is usually so blatant that I would characterize such disclosure as redundant.

Several of my posts contain political commentary but I think our posts should be about investing, not swaying voter opinion. I especially avoid one-sided rationalizations that appear to have a specific agenda -- although I readily admit that on occasion the dividing line may be very fine indeed.

I still have not made up my mind about the upcoming election because I find some merit in the positions of each candidate. But to me the real question on our site remains: where do you put your money in the case of either candidate's success?

We can all sense it even without looking at the numbers -- gas prices rose very quickly when oil prices had their huge run-up, but since oil prices started falling, gas prices didn't match the declines. Indeed, since oil reached its record price of $147.27 a barrel on July 11, it dropped over 26% to around $107-108 today. Gas prices peaked at $4.14 a gallon on July 17, but have fallen only 10% since. Comparing weekly data from the EIA shows a similar, if less extreme, picture. Why is that?

Economists differ in their views of why this asymmetric pricing happens. In the case of gasoline, it seems to be the "fault" of the consumer. Since information about oil prices is readily available, consumers know what to expect even before they go to the pump, therefore behaving differently during times of rising and falling oil prices. This, in turn, limits or allows for larger gasoline price changes.

During times of rising oil prices, consumers are very price conscious and shop for deals. Sure, since gas stations take delivery often, they'd be eager to pass on the price increases to consumers immediately. But as most consumers comaprison shop, gasoline retailers are limited by the amount they can hike up prices.

The winds of change are swirling around us.

In politics, the United States will elect either its first African-American as President of the United States,or its first woman as Vice President of the United States in November.

In baseball, the Tampa Bay Rays are poised to make the play-offs and contend for the American League pennant. (The Tampa Bay Rays!?) And the New York Yankees most likely won't.

And in the oil market, oil is set to test the psychologically-important $100 level, only this time via a downtrend.

That's right, you read correctly: an oil price downtrend. Oil's slide continued Wednesday as initial reports indicated only minimal damage to oil rigs and refinery infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico from Hurricane Gustav, Bloomberg News reported Wednesday.

Oil fell $2.10 to $107.61 per barrel Wednesday at mid-day. Oil hit a record high of $147.27 per barrel on July 11, 2008. The other major energy commodities also fell Wednesday. Unleaded gasoline dropped 5 cents to $2.68 per gallon, heating oil declined about 4cents to $3.02 per gallon, and natural gas sank 21 cents to $7.05 per million BTUs.

Energy Trader Jim Dietz said the operative phrase in the energy markets now is not 'hurricane' but changing economic winds -- the global economic slowdown. "Each week I review individual country GDP reports to cross-reference institutional data on economic conditions, and they point to one thing, a global slowdown," Dietz said. "If developing world oil consumption growth slows, oil will continue to trend lower, and we'll test $100 in week or less." Dietz added that he was currently short unleaded gasoline and oil, with monthly contracts.

Just when the oil market gets one storm out the way, it appears another 'storm' may be building. And we're not talking about Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike, or Josephine in the Atlantic Ocean.

Iran Tuesday said OPEC may need to cut oil supplies by up to 1.5 million barrels per day to balance what it believes will be a global market imbalance by early next year, Reuters reported Tuesday. OPEC will meet next week in Vienna to discuss oil production.

Ali Khatibi, Iran's OPEC governor, told Reuters. "The current market is not balanced, it is oversupplied," adding that the oversupply cannot continue because it will hurt oil's price.

Oil fell $6.41 to $109.05 per barrel Tuesday at mid-day. Earlier in the day oil had fallen to as low as $105.46 after reports indicated oil companies were preparing to resume production from rigs closed by Hurricane Gustav, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday.

Economist: OPEC supply cut 'would be a mistake'

Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Tuesday now is not the time for OPEC to consider a production cut. "We have all three major economic regions of the world, U.S., Europe, Asia, decelerating, in good part due to the sky-high oil prices of the past two years. Now, just went we get some relief, OPEC says it's time to cut production?" Wang said. "It's way too premature to think about a production cut. We haven't seen Q3 oil consumption statistics from Asia yet. They could show an increase, which would be bullish for prices."

Gustav may have done some damage to oil rigs and refineries in the Gulf of Mexico. At this point, that harm seems to be very modest. As the storm passed, oil dropped almost $5 to $109.

In the past, a natural disaster that could disrupt supply, a negative signal from OPEC, or a political problem in an oil-producing nation would have caused an oil spike that might have lasted for weeks.

Gustav may be the most significant indication yet that the dynamics of the price of crude have substantially changed. There are only a few reasons that this could happen. One is that the drop of oil and government investigations have pushed speculators out of the market. It was never clear how large their role was in the run that took crude above $140, but if they have moved to the sidelines the chances that oil would drop are probably enhanced.

The other explanation is one of simple supply. Almost all evidence points to Americans driving less and airlines flying less. It appears that a slight slowing of the economies in China and India has decreased their use some as well. The Bush administration said it was prepared to increase supply out of the Strategic Oil Reserve if Gustav had hit production hard.

Odds are the global economy will continue to cool. If so, the recent changes in the dynamics of oil prices are likely to continue to take the cost of the commodity back toward $100.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Beyond the torment it has already caused in the Carribbean and the stress it places on those who are evacuating the Gulf Coast, hurricane Gustav will lead to higher prices at the pumps. That's because the majority of the Gulf of Mexico's oil production is shut down in anticipation of Gustav's force.

Exactly how much production is being shut down? CNNMoney reports that "energy producers have shut in approximately 77% of oil output and 37% of natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico." This is affecting three producers particularly hard -- Royal Dutch Shell PLC (NYSE: RDS.A), BP PLC (NYSE: BP) and Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX).

And the production shut-down is significant -- "nearly 1 million barrels of daily oil production is now shut down. The last time this happened was in November 2005, after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. In addition, 2.75 billion cubic feet of daily natural gas production is now shut down" according to CNNMoney.

Oil rose for a fourth straight day Thursday as Tropical Storm Gustav prepared to enter the Gulf of Mexico causing oil / natural gas companies to evaluate oil rigs in the area.

Oil rose above $120 a barrel earlier Thursday morning, but is now trading below that level. Oil has risen about $10 in a week on hurricane concerns and geopolitical tensions.

The other, major energy commodities also jumped Thursday morning on news of storm's likely track. Unleaded gasoline rose 6 cents to $3.12 per gallon, heating oil increased about 6 cents to $3.32 per gallon, and natural gas climbed 8 cents to $8.69 per million BTUs.

As of 8 a.m. EDT, Gustav was located about 70 miles east of Jamaica at 17.8N Latitude and 75.6W Longitude, moving west/southwest at 6 mph, with top wind speeds of 70 miles per hour, according to weather.com. Forecasters expect Gustav to track west/northwest, enter the Gulf of Mexico, strengthen to hurricane status, and strike the U.S mainland between Houston and the Florida Panhandle, with the most likely landfall being Louisiana.

Gas prices dropped another 15 cents over the last two weeks. That news sounds good, but it really isn't. Gas is still much too high and is staggering compared with a year or two ago. According to the AP, a gallon of regular is down to $3.70, and premium is $3.95.

While the improvement would seem to be good for the economy, gas prices are still just too high. Filling the tank on an SUV or pickup is probably a $70 ticket. Even a small, fuel-efficient car can't stop at a service station for much less than $30.

The media reports on gas prices are misleading. They are about the modest drop in costs but fail to look at the numbers relative to the period when a gallon was $2. In some parts of the U.S., prices were that low in early 2007.

It is unlikely that falling gas prices will do much to improve consumer economics until the register reads under $3. Until then, the consumer will stay pinched and won't be over at the mall buying new clothes.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Just when there are signs that emerging market demand (and institutional investor frenzy) have eased in the oil markets, up pops an old friend: geopolitical risk.

Moreover, this time the old friend, 'Middle East Tensions,' brought along his long/lost cousin, 'Enboldened Russia.'

Russia's re-appearance on the international stage takes the form of a major power, not a geopolitical power capable of projecting force globally as during the Soviet era, but the gradation is minor as it relates to the oil market, so says economist Richard Felson.

"Russia has the capacity to create a remarkable amount of distress in the oil markets. It can use oil exports and natural gas as a lever against Europe and the world, and its territorial threats to Central Asia and Eastern Europe are also cause for legitimate concern," Felson said.

Oil fell $3.03 to $118.15 per barrel Friday at mid-day after Turkey restored oil flows through the Caspian Sea pipeline, Bloomberg News reported Friday. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline moves oil from Azerbaijan through George to Turkey's Mediterranean coast. Oil flows were stopped earlier this month after Russia invaded Georgia.

The other, major energy commodities also fell sharply Friday at mid-day on the Baku pipeline news. Unleaded gasoline plunged 11 cents to $2.93 per gallon, heating oil declined about 10 cents to $3.19 per gallon, and natural gas declined 14 cents to $8.11 per million BTUs.

Russia: a threat to the west's oil?

Further, Felson said Russia's action "have caused the west to re-evaluate the global oil and energy equation" to account for the new - - and unexpected - - Russia wild card.

"Whereas before the prevailing view was incorporation of Russia into the oil and energy markets and as a net-plus for production and supplies, long-term, the new view is guarded," Felson said. "Not only are supplies from Russia now viewed as liabilities, but the west now has to ask, 'what other oil-rich areas might Russia might try to threaten?' And what about it's natural gas relationship with Germany?" [Russia supplies about 20% of Germany's natural gas.]

The Philadelphia Fed Survey of Manufacturing in the tri-state area came in at -12.7. This was an improvement from the prior month's reading of -16.3, and slightly ahead of expectations. Initial unemployment claims were 432,000, which was also an improvement from the prior week's reading of 445,000, and better than expected.

Despite these improvements, these numbers are still quite negative. We may be in the process of forming a short-term bottom. Much of this will depend upon what happens to oil prices. If oil prices stabilize or continue to drop in the near future, this will offer some much needed relief to our consumer-driven economy. However, if the recent drop in oil is only a minor correction, the economic news will get worse.

• Even if oil stabilizes and if the economy starts to form a bottom, I do not believe that we will experience a substantial rebound. There are too many economic pressures which will not be resolved overnight:
  The housing crisis is very similar to the one experienced in the late 1980s and early 1990s. This took a decade to resolve.
• The current banking and credit crisis also resembles the Savings and Loan debacle of that earlier era. This eventually required massive intervention by the Federal government in the form of the Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC) to repair the financial system.

Those people expecting a quick recovery like 1998 will be sorely disappointed.

Doug Roberts is the Founder and Chief Investment Strategist for ChannelCapitalResearch.com, and is the author of Follow the Fed® to Investment Success: The Effortless Strategy for Beating Wall Street. He previously held executive positions at Morgan Stanley Group and Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.

Oil prices are moving up today because of a hurricane which may hit the Gulf of Mexico. It is a signal that it does not take much to move crude prices, which have fallen from $142 to $115, in the "wrong" direction again.

According to Bloomberg, "Crude oil rose for the first time in three days as a storm near Cuba prompted evacuations from rigs and platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, which accounts for about a fifth of U.S. production. " Any disruption in production brought on by the storm would be short-lived.

The news should remind those who see crude moving toward $100 a barrel that the system of supply and demand is fragile. OPEC is talking about cutting production now that prices have fallen. The conflict between Georgia and Russia could still disrupt the flow of oil from Georgian ports. Nigeria remains an extremely unstable country. Recent reports show that China's GDP is still growing at over 10%. That growth relies heavily on gas and diesel to transport exports to shipping facilities.

The drop in oil prices may drive a certain complacency about gas and heating oil prices. It could undercut the big move is the US toward "energy independence." But that would be a sucker play. There are too many pressure points that will keep oil prices high.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Minyanville Professor Minyan Peter dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

As many people have heard before, there are only two times a company issues common stock: When it absolutely has to or when it is stupid not to.

Well yesterday's issuance by US Airways (NYSE: LCC) may represent that once in a lifetime opportunity to see those seemingly contradictory principles in action at the same time. Having seen its stock trade at $1.45 not a month ago, $8.50 must seem pretty sweet to US Airways management, particularly with strong technical resistance at $10.00 providing a pretty strong ceiling above.

With airline stocks trading as the most leveraged play on the price declines in oil, I can understand why US Airways management took advantage of the window being open to issue stock. But just because the issuance window is open, doesn't mean investors should jump.

T. Boone Pickens does not care if the price of oil is falling. His opinion is that most of the drop is over and that his plan for wind energy is still viable and necessary for future U.S. independence from crude imports.

Pickens could not be described as faint-hearted. Rumors are that his $7 billion BP Capital hedge fund took a 35% haircut in July by betting the wrong way on oil and gas. It is a paper loss, but must sting nonetheless.

Some argue that Pickens is old and monumentally rich so gambles on wind and oil don't mean much for his own fortune. That could indicate that his conviction about wind-powered energy is not based on greed. Since he has spent his life aggressively accumulating wealth, that is not likely.

What is likely is that he thinks oil prices may stay very high and that his alternative energy will do remarkably well because it is infinitely renewable. If so, it is too bad his hedge fund cannot invest a few billions into wind technology. He can't afford another 35% loss. At some point his convictions may put him in the poor house. At least as it would be viewed by a billionaire.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com